Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.5 BCFD
MA(9): $2.8
MA(20): $2.92
MACD: -0.1404
Signal: -0.1325
Days since crossover: 25
Value: 33.76
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,109
Avg (20d): 137,197
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 0.0
%D: 8.61
ADX: 27.13
+DI: 15.66
-DI: 27.31
Value: -100.0
Upper: 3.19
Middle: 2.92
Lower: 2.65
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.4 | 106.7 | 101.3 | 100.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 5.63 |
| Total Supply | 112.6 | 111.9 | 107.8 | 105.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 22.1 | 21.5 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 41.0 | 43.7 | 42.37 |
| Residential & Commercial | 8.9 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| LNG Exports | 15.5 | 16.3 | 12.6 | 11.93 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.23 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.77 |
| Total Demand | 106.1 | 102.5 | 99.2 | 96.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.5 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.83 |
TTF prices increased to 11.267 EUR/MWh (+0.056). JKM prices increased to 11.550 USD/MMBtu (+0.110). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.283 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-25
Front month: OCT 25
As of 2025-08-25
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-25
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.267 |
| OCT 25 | 11.639 |
| NOV 25 | 11.884 |
| DEC 25 | 12.040 |
| JAN 26 | 12.093 |
| FEB 26 | 12.092 |
| MAR 26 | 11.925 |
| APR 26 | 11.279 |
| MAY 26 | 11.101 |
| JUN 26 | 11.054 |
| JUL 26 | 11.069 |
| AUG 26 | 11.114 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| OCT 25 | 11.550 |
| NOV 25 | 11.890 |
| DEC 25 | 12.215 |
| JAN 26 | 12.345 |
| FEB 26 | 12.290 |
| MAR 26 | 11.935 |
| APR 26 | 11.330 |
| MAY 26 | 11.185 |
| JUN 26 | 11.270 |
| JUL 26 | 11.360 |
| AUG 26 | 11.455 |
| SEP 26 | 11.525 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-26 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.88 |
| 2025-08-27 | $2.7 | $2.53 | $2.87 |
| 2025-08-28 | $2.7 | $2.53 | $2.86 |
| 2025-08-29 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.88 |
| 2025-08-30 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.88 |
The current market sentiment is neutral, with a technical interpretation leaning moderately bearish (Score: -3/5). Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.68 and resistance level at 3.03, which may guide short-term trading strategies.
The ML price forecast suggests a potential increase of 0.49% with a trading range between 2.54 and 2.88. However, the overall bearish technical outlook combined with the low demand driven by cooler weather indicates that volatility may persist, presenting both opportunities and risks for short-term trades.
The fundamental balance is at 6.50 BCFD, reflecting an increase of +2.50. This suggests ample supply, which may pressure prices further, especially with the current bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas.
Producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses from declining prices. The neutral news sentiment indicates that while there are no immediate threats, the overall market perception is cautious, especially with the geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil prices.
The weather outlook indicates a dominance of cooling demand across all regions, with low heating demand expected. This could lead to stable supply conditions but also hints at potential cost fluctuations if demand unexpectedly rises.
Consumers should prepare for supply reliability risks as the market adjusts to the current supply/demand dynamics. It may be prudent to consider procurement strategies that hedge against potential price increases, especially if the weather patterns shift unexpectedly.
The market is currently characterized by a moderately bearish technical outlook, with a fundamental balance of 6.50 BCFD indicating excess supply. The overall market sentiment is neutral, with mixed signals from demand and supply news.
Analysts should focus on the geopolitical factors affecting crude oil prices and monitor how these may spill over into natural gas markets. The convergence of cooling demand and ample supply suggests that the market could remain stable, but any shifts in sentiment could lead to rapid changes in price dynamics.