Natural Gas Radar

2025-08-31 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 08/31/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas is either going to burst up through $3 and jump to 3.449 (with a pause at 3.247 and 3.127) or fail to break the strong resistance at $3 and head down to fill the 2.762 gap and 2.449 gap. That is what the technicals are pointing to….now the fundamentals are showing a bullish story - the supply/demand balance is pretty tight for this time of year - LNG is likely to increase and Power has been building on AI/Data Center demand. The fundamentals support a 3.25 to 3.75 range for the next 60 days….while the technicals look a bit weaker.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-31 23:46:31 Length: 480 chars
Natural Gas is at a pivotal juncture, battling resistance at $3. A breakout could see prices surge towards $3.449, but failure may pull it down to fill gaps at $2.762 and $2.449. Recent data highlights tight supply and strong demand, bolstered by dwindling inventories and increasing LNG exports. While fundamentals suggest a range of $3.25-$3.75 in the coming months, technical signals hint at potential weakness. Watch for a decisive move as the market navigates these confli...

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.2 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.0
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.83

MA(20): $2.88

Current Price is 3.0, 9 day MA 2.83, 20 day MA 2.88

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0679

Signal: -0.1079

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 52.19

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 52.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,906

Avg (20d): 136,520

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 92.36

%D: 90.36

Stochastic %K: 92.36, %D: 90.36. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 22.23

+DI: 24.84

-DI: 21.0

ADX: 22.23 (+DI: 24.84, -DI: 21.0). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -7.64

Williams %R: -7.64 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.12

Middle: 2.88

Lower: 2.65

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.12, Middle: 2.88, Lower: 2.65

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.8 107.4 101.3 100.27
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.9 5.2 6.4 5.93
Total Supply 112.7 112.6 107.8 106.23
Industrial Demand 22.1 21.7 21.6 21.4
Electric Power Demand 41.0 45.7 44.4 42.37
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.9 8.2 8.57
LNG Exports 16.4 15.5 12.8 11.93
Mexico Exports 7.3 7.3 6.8 6.17
Pipeline Fuel 6.9 7.0 6.7 6.8
Total Demand 102.5 106.1 100.5 97.2
Supply/Demand Balance 10.2 6.5 7.3 9.03

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 1.0, CDD: 8.1)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 0.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 5.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 13.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 27.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 5.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 36.0
Total CDD: 11.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 64.5

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 13.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 154.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 27.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 225.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 61.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.71
Daily: -0.06 (-0.06%)
Weekly: -0.52 (-0.53%)

US_10Y

4.23
Daily: 0.02 (0.48%)
Weekly: -0.05 (-1.12%)

SP500

6460.26
Daily: -41.6 (-0.64%)
Weekly: 20.94 (0.33%)

VIX

15.36
Daily: 0.93 (6.44%)
Weekly: 0.57 (3.85%)

GOLD

3516.1
Daily: 42.4 (1.22%)
Weekly: 127.5 (3.76%)

COPPER

4.59
Daily: 0.07 (1.59%)
Weekly: 0.14 (3.15%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-08-26
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,619,404
Change: +15,634

Managed Money

-44,032
Change: -7,345
-2.7% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-16,774
Change: +997
-1.0% of OI

Swap Dealers

104,599
Change: -634
6.5% of OI

Other Reportables

-59,914
Change: +8,487
-3.7% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-08-26
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,912,554
Change: -10,267

Managed Money

24,621
Change: -2,824
1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128
Change: +334
15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999
Change: +9,349
-22.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices remained stable to 11.206 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 11.215 USD/MMBtu (+0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.009 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.206

+0.000

Front month: SEP 25

As of 2025-08-31

JKM Prices

11.215

+0.010

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-08-31

JKM-TTF Spread

0.009

0.08%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-08-31

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.5
11.1
10.8
10.4
11.21
11.21
SEP 25
10.85
11.16
OCT 25
11.16
11.49
NOV 25
11.32
11.68
DEC 25
11.40
11.63
JAN 26
11.41
11.27
FEB 26
11.24
10.79
MAR 26
10.75
10.71
APR 26
10.60
10.80
MAY 26
10.56
10.88
JUN 26
10.59
10.97
JUL 26
10.64
11.05
AUG 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
SEP 25 11.206
OCT 25 10.848
NOV 25 11.158
DEC 25 11.318
JAN 26 11.397
FEB 26 11.406
MAR 26 11.241
APR 26 10.752
MAY 26 10.599
JUN 26 10.561
JUL 26 10.593
AUG 26 10.638
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
OCT 25 11.215
NOV 25 11.160
DEC 25 11.495
JAN 26 11.675
FEB 26 11.630
MAR 26 11.265
APR 26 10.795
MAY 26 10.705
JUN 26 10.805
JUL 26 10.880
AUG 26 10.970
SEP 26 11.050

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.033
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 47
Last Updated: 2025-08-31 23:47:24

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

HEATING_OIL

0.0

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (7 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Infrastructure (2 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.0
Closest Support: $2.98 0.67% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.2 6.67% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.98 Support
0.382 $3.2 Resistance
0.5 $3.38
0.618 $3.57
0.786 $3.82
1.0 $4.15

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.56
1.618 $5.09
2.0 $5.67
2.618 $6.62

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.0
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-31 23:47:25
Next Trading Day: UP 0.14%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-30 $3.0 $2.84 $3.17
2025-08-31 $3.01 $2.84 $3.17
2025-09-01 $3.0 $2.83 $3.16
2025-09-02 $2.99 $2.83 $3.16
2025-09-03 $2.99 $2.82 $3.15

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.14% for the next trading day (2025-08-30), reaching $3.00.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-30 and 2025-09-03.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~11.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. Traders should monitor the Fibonacci support level at 2.98 and resistance at 3.2 for potential breakout opportunities.

The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.14%, but volatility may arise from the mixed weather outlook and neutral news sentiment. Traders should be cautious of short-term fluctuations and consider positioning around the identified support and resistance levels.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a fundamental balance of 10.20 BCFD and a significant change of +3.70, producers may need to reassess production strategies to align with the current demand dynamics. The bearish sentiment in crude oil, coupled with a strong demand for natural gas, suggests a need for adaptive hedging strategies.

Additionally, the news sentiment surrounding supply and demand concerns could impact operational decisions. Producers should consider the implications of tight supply in natural gas while being mindful of the broader market pressures on crude oil.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the bearish sentiment in crude oil and the positive outlook for natural gas driven by strong demand. The cooling demand forecast indicates low heating needs, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions, which may lead to stable pricing in those areas.

However, with the risk of supply disruptions highlighted in recent news, consumers should consider procurement strategies that mitigate exposure to price volatility in the energy market.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market landscape presents a bearish outlook for crude oil, driven by supply glut concerns and low demand signals. In contrast, natural gas shows signs of resilience with a strong demand narrative. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening in natural gas supply, which could shift market dynamics in the near term.

Analysts should focus on the interplay between the weather outlook, technical indicators, and news sentiment to gauge potential shifts in market conditions. The mixed sentiment across different commodities indicates a complex environment that warrants close monitoring for any emerging trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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