Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-05 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/05/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas is either going to burst up through $3 and jump to 3.449 (with a pause at 3.247 and 3.127) or fail to break the strong resistance at $3 and head down to fill the 2.762 gap and 2.449 gap. That is what the technicals are pointing to….now the fundamentals are showing a bullish story - the supply/demand balance is pretty tight for this time of year - LNG is likely to increase and Power has been building on AI/Data Center demand. The fundamentals support a 3.25 to 3.75 range for the next 60 days….while the technicals look a bit weaker.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-05 23:46:24 Length: 480 chars
Natural Gas prices are currently at a crossroads, hovering around the critical $3 resistance level. With tight supply/demand balances and increasing LNG exports, a bullish narrative supports a potential rise to the $3.25-$3.75 range in the next 60 days. However, recent cooler weather forecasts and rising inventories have tempered enthusiasm, causing prices to retreat from a four-week high. Traders should watch for a decisive break above $3 or a drop to fill gaps at $2.762 ...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 12.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.03
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $2.93

MA(20): $2.88

Current Price is 3.03, 9 day MA 2.93, 20 day MA 2.88

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0223

Signal: -0.0708

Days since crossover: 7

MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 52.97

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 52.97 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 123,253

Avg (20d): 140,201

Ratio: 0.88

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 79.37

%D: 85.0

Stochastic %K: 79.37, %D: 85.0. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.15

+DI: 21.58

-DI: 18.14

ADX: 19.15 (+DI: 21.58, -DI: 18.14). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -20.63

Williams %R: -20.63 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.12

Middle: 2.88

Lower: 2.65

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.12, Middle: 2.88, Lower: 2.65

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.2 107.8 102.0 100.8
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 4.9 6.9 6.17
Total Supply 111.9 112.7 109.0 107.03
Industrial Demand 22.3 22.1 21.7 21.47
Electric Power Demand 38.4 41.0 44.2 43.1
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.7
LNG Exports 16.1 16.4 12.7 11.93
Mexico Exports 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.2
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 99.6 102.5 100.3 98.2
Supply/Demand Balance 12.3 10.2 8.7 8.83

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 2.2, CDD: 6.5)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 4.0)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 3.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 11.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 21.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 3.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 25.5
Total CDD: 15.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 6.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 6.0
Total CDD: 34.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 11.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 144.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 21.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 174.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 2.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 2.0
Total CDD: 38.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.74
Daily: -0.61 (-0.62%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.03%)

US_10Y

4.09
Daily: -0.09 (-2.16%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-3.34%)

SP500

6481.5
Daily: -20.58 (-0.32%)
Weekly: 21.24 (0.33%)

VIX

15.18
Daily: -0.12 (-0.78%)
Weekly: -0.18 (-1.17%)

GOLD

3639.8
Daily: 74.0 (2.08%)
Weekly: 166.1 (4.78%)

COPPER

4.54
Daily: 0.06 (1.24%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.55%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,635,669
Change: +16,265

Managed Money

-36,762
Change: +7,270
-2.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-21,694
Change: -4,920
-1.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

110,906
Change: +6,307
6.8% of OI

Other Reportables

-66,014
Change: -6,100
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-02
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,987,861
Change: +75,307

Managed Money

27,323
Change: +2,702
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,736
Change: +1,608
15.1% of OI

Swap Dealers

-421,131
Change: +7,868
-21.2% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.028 EUR/MWh (+0.061). JKM prices increased to 11.245 USD/MMBtu (+0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.217 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.028

+0.061

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-05

JKM Prices

11.245

+0.020

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-05

JKM-TTF Spread

0.217

1.97%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-05

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.0
11.7
11.4
11.0
10.7
11.03
11.24
OCT 25
11.36
11.51
NOV 25
11.52
11.76
DEC 25
11.60
11.93
JAN 26
11.60
11.89
FEB 26
11.44
11.52
MAR 26
10.97
11.09
APR 26
10.83
10.99
MAY 26
10.81
11.11
JUN 26
10.83
11.12
JUL 26
10.88
11.29
AUG 26
10.96
11.37
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.028
NOV 25 11.363
DEC 25 11.521
JAN 26 11.598
FEB 26 11.604
MAR 26 11.435
APR 26 10.969
MAY 26 10.834
JUN 26 10.815
JUL 26 10.833
AUG 26 10.881
SEP 26 10.964
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
OCT 25 11.245
NOV 25 11.505
DEC 25 11.755
JAN 26 11.925
FEB 26 11.890
MAR 26 11.515
APR 26 11.085
MAY 26 10.990
JUN 26 11.105
JUL 26 11.125
AUG 26 11.290
SEP 26 11.370

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.033
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 86
Last Updated: 2025-09-05 23:47:19

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

HEATING_OIL

0.0

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (17 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Infrastructure (2 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Weather (6 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.03
Closest Support: $2.98 1.65% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.2 5.61% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.98 Support
0.382 $3.2 Resistance
0.5 $3.38
0.618 $3.57
0.786 $3.82
1.0 $4.15

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.56
1.618 $5.09
2.0 $5.67
2.618 $6.62

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.07
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-05 23:47:19
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.13%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-05 $3.07 $2.92 $3.22
2025-09-06 $3.07 $2.92 $3.23
2025-09-07 $3.07 $2.92 $3.23
2025-09-08 $3.07 $2.92 $3.22
2025-09-09 $3.07 $2.92 $3.22

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.13% for the next trading day (2025-09-05), reaching $3.07.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-05 and 2025-09-09.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~9.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.98 and resistance at 3.2. Traders should be cautious of potential price movements, as the ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.13%. The convergence of cooling demand and a fundamental balance of 12.30 BCFD with a positive change could lead to short-term opportunities but also presents risks if prices fall below support levels.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a moderately bearish market sentiment, producers should consider adjusting their production plans in response to the changing demand dynamics. The fundamental balance indicates a positive change of 2.10, suggesting a temporary increase in supply. Hedging strategies may be necessary given the low heating demand expected in several regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could impact overall consumption levels. Monitoring news sentiment around natural gas prices is crucial for strategic positioning.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations given the moderately bearish market outlook. The cooling demand forecast suggests that while heating demand will be low, cooling needs will remain moderate, which could stabilize prices in the short term. However, the fundamental balance of 12.30 BCFD indicates increased supply, which may provide opportunities for procurement at lower costs. It's advisable to monitor the ML price forecast closely as it indicates a potential decline.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current energy market presents a moderately bearish outlook, driven by a fundamental balance of 12.30 BCFD and a cooling demand forecast. Technical indicators suggest resistance at 3.2 and support at 2.98, indicating that price movements may be limited in the short term. Analysts should pay close attention to the news sentiment surrounding natural gas and crude oil as sentiment scores reflect mixed market conditions, which could signal shifts in market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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