Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-09 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/09/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas is at a stalling point - 3.127 is a critical point and I believe if it gets taken out by the bulls - then 3.449 - 3.525 is coming. There are gaps at 3.449 and 2.449 - which is why this movement is a critical turning point - failure here points to a reversal to fill a rollover gap at 2.762 and the bigger gap from earlier this year at 2.449. 3.127 is the pivot with 3.00 and 2.924 as support while 3.247 and 3.342 are resistance. Storage is not filling as fast as the bears expected - translation - we are “less bearish” and the fundamentals are pointing to a strong entry into winter. Hurricanes and Heat are the September points to watch.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-09 23:46:36 Length: 480 chars
Natural Gas is currently at a pivotal point, hovering around the critical level of 3.127. A break above this could lead to targets at 3.449 and 3.525, while failure may push prices down to gaps at 2.762 and 2.449. Recent market activity shows a 7-week high on lower output, with warmer temperatures boosting demand expectations. Storage isn't filling as quickly as anticipated, indicating a less bearish outlook heading into winter. Keep an eye on weather patterns and output r...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 12.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.09
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.02

MA(20): $2.9

Current Price is 3.09, 9 day MA 3.02, 20 day MA 2.9

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0014

Signal: -0.0461

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 56.74

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 56.74 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,369

Avg (20d): 134,673

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 81.25

%D: 82.06

Stochastic %K: 81.25, %D: 82.06. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.81

+DI: 23.15

-DI: 16.54

ADX: 18.81 (+DI: 23.15, -DI: 16.54). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -18.75

Williams %R: -18.75 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.16

Middle: 2.9

Lower: 2.63

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.16, Middle: 2.9, Lower: 2.63

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.2 107.8 102.0 100.8
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 4.9 6.9 6.17
Total Supply 111.9 112.7 109.0 107.03
Industrial Demand 22.3 22.1 21.7 21.47
Electric Power Demand 38.4 41.0 44.2 43.1
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.7
LNG Exports 16.1 16.4 12.7 11.93
Mexico Exports 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.2
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 99.6 102.5 100.3 98.2
Supply/Demand Balance 12.3 10.2 8.7 8.83

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.0, CDD: 13.2)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 8.0)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 15.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 12.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 22.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 15.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 100.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 8.5
Total HDD: 4.0
Total CDD: 71.5

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 12.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 158.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 22.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 158.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.5
Total HDD: 4.0
Total CDD: 74.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.76
Daily: 0.31 (0.32%)
Weekly: -0.38 (-0.38%)

US_10Y

4.07
Daily: 0.03 (0.69%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-3.25%)

SP500

6512.61
Daily: 17.46 (0.27%)
Weekly: 64.35 (1.0%)

VIX

15.04
Daily: -0.07 (-0.46%)
Weekly: -1.31 (-8.01%)

GOLD

3672.6
Daily: 34.5 (0.95%)
Weekly: 79.4 (2.21%)

COPPER

4.58
Daily: 0.09 (2.04%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.52%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,635,669
Change: +16,265

Managed Money

-36,762
Change: +7,270
-2.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-21,694
Change: -4,920
-1.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

110,906
Change: +6,307
6.8% of OI

Other Reportables

-66,014
Change: -6,100
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-02
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,987,861
Change: +75,307

Managed Money

27,323
Change: +2,702
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,736
Change: +1,608
15.1% of OI

Swap Dealers

-421,131
Change: +7,868
-21.2% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.265 EUR/MWh (+0.280). JKM prices increased to 11.345 USD/MMBtu (+0.045). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.080 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.265

+0.280

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-09

JKM Prices

11.345

+0.045

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-09

JKM-TTF Spread

0.080

0.71%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-09

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.2
11.9
11.6
11.2
10.9
11.27
11.35
OCT 25
11.66
11.72
NOV 25
11.82
11.95
DEC 25
11.89
12.13
JAN 26
11.90
12.10
FEB 26
11.72
11.74
MAR 26
11.20
11.25
APR 26
11.02
11.11
MAY 26
11.00
11.23
JUN 26
11.01
11.28
JUL 26
11.05
11.40
AUG 26
11.14
11.46
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.265
NOV 25 11.664
DEC 25 11.824
JAN 26 11.893
FEB 26 11.902
MAR 26 11.724
APR 26 11.199
MAY 26 11.020
JUN 26 11.001
JUL 26 11.013
AUG 26 11.054
SEP 26 11.136
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
OCT 25 11.345
NOV 25 11.725
DEC 25 11.945
JAN 26 12.135
FEB 26 12.095
MAR 26 11.740
APR 26 11.250
MAY 26 11.110
JUN 26 11.235
JUL 26 11.280
AUG 26 11.400
SEP 26 11.460

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.75
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 55
Last Updated: 2025-09-09 23:47:25

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.75

CRUDE_OIL

0.75

Top News Topics

Supply (17 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.09
Closest Support: $2.98 3.56% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.2 3.56% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.98 Support
0.382 $3.2 Resistance
0.5 $3.38
0.618 $3.57
0.786 $3.82
1.0 $4.15

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.56
1.618 $5.09
2.0 $5.67
2.618 $6.62

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.12
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-09 23:47:25
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.27%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-10 $3.11 $2.97 $3.25
2025-09-11 $3.11 $2.97 $3.25
2025-09-12 $3.12 $2.97 $3.26
2025-09-13 $3.11 $2.97 $3.25
2025-09-14 $3.11 $2.97 $3.25

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.27% for the next trading day (2025-09-10), reaching $3.11.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-10 and 2025-09-14.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~9.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. Traders should be aware of the Fibonacci support level at 2.98 and resistance at 3.2. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.27% in the next day, with a trading range of 2.97 to 3.25. This presents opportunities for short-term trades, but caution is advised due to the bearish sentiment.

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For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance shows an increase to 12.30 BCFD, which may indicate a growing supply relative to demand. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and hedging strategies. The overall market sentiment is bullish (score: +0.775), particularly for natural gas, which may provide a favorable backdrop for pricing. However, producers should remain vigilant regarding geopolitical risks that could impact operations.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the weather outlook showing cooling demand dominating across all regions, consumers can expect low heating demand and moderate cooling demand. This may lead to stable pricing; however, the potential fluctuations in natural gas prices could affect procurement strategies. Consumers should consider hedging against price volatility, especially given the moderately bearish technical outlook.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently influenced by a mix of factors, with a moderately bearish technical sentiment and a bullish overall news sentiment. The fundamental balance suggests an increase in supply, while cooling demand is prevalent across regions. Analysts should monitor geopolitical factors that may shift sentiment and pricing dynamics, particularly in crude oil markets, which are showing signs of volatility due to geopolitical risks.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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