Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-10 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/10/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural gas is back at the $3/MMBtu doorstep—caught between storage builds and weather-driven demand. Bulls need continued warmth and sustained output declines to push prices higher toward $3.25+. Bears point to full storage and weaker LNG as gravity pulling us toward $2.76 and possibly $2.45. Fundamentals is pulling us back down with weaker demand on the horizon - but honestly with the lack of tropical hurricanes impacting demand is a stronger bull sign. Bulls tried to push us up through 3.127 but the failure and reversal testing $3 again looks to be pointing back to 2.449 (yes it’s been a whirlwind).

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-10 23:47:01 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices are currently hovering around $3/MMBtu, influenced by storage builds and weather-related demand fluctuations. Recent cooling demand and expectations of increased storage have pressured prices, while the decline in LNG flows adds to bearish sentiment. Bulls need sustained warmth and output drops to push prices above $3.25, but a failure to break through $3.127 could lead to a pullback toward $2.76 and potentially $2.45. Watch for upcoming weather patterns...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 12.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.02
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.04

MA(20): $2.91

Current Price is 3.02, 9 day MA 3.04, 20 day MA 2.91

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0049

Signal: -0.0356

Days since crossover: 10

MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 51.24

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 51.24 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,437

Avg (20d): 132,799

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 68.75

%D: 78.65

Stochastic %K: 68.75, %D: 78.65. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.07

+DI: 20.77

-DI: 17.03

ADX: 18.07 (+DI: 20.77, -DI: 17.03). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -31.25

Williams %R: -31.25 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.18

Middle: 2.91

Lower: 2.64

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.18, Middle: 2.91, Lower: 2.64

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.2 107.8 102.0 100.8
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 4.9 6.9 6.17
Total Supply 111.9 112.7 109.0 107.03
Industrial Demand 22.3 22.1 21.7 21.47
Electric Power Demand 38.4 41.0 44.2 43.1
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.7
LNG Exports 16.1 16.4 12.7 11.93
Mexico Exports 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.2
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 99.6 102.5 100.3 98.2
Supply/Demand Balance 12.3 10.2 8.7 8.83

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.0, CDD: 11.1)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 6.8)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 6.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 12.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 23.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 6.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 89.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 80.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 12.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 158.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 23.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 165.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 6.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 81.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.83
Daily: 0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly: -0.52 (-0.53%)

US_10Y

4.03
Daily: -0.04 (-1.03%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-3.45%)

SP500

6532.04
Daily: 19.43 (0.3%)
Weekly: 29.96 (0.46%)

VIX

15.35
Daily: 0.31 (2.06%)
Weekly: 0.05 (0.33%)

GOLD

3670.7
Daily: 27.4 (0.75%)
Weekly: 104.9 (2.94%)

COPPER

4.61
Daily: 0.11 (2.39%)
Weekly: 0.12 (2.68%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,635,669
Change: +16,265

Managed Money

-36,762
Change: +7,270
-2.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-21,694
Change: -4,920
-1.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

110,906
Change: +6,307
6.8% of OI

Other Reportables

-66,014
Change: -6,100
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-02
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,987,861
Change: +75,307

Managed Money

27,323
Change: +2,702
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,736
Change: +1,608
15.1% of OI

Swap Dealers

-421,131
Change: +7,868
-21.2% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 11.225 EUR/MWh (-0.040). JKM prices decreased to 11.330 USD/MMBtu (-0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.105 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.225

-0.040

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-10

JKM Prices

11.330

-0.015

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-10

JKM-TTF Spread

0.105

0.94%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-10

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.2
11.8
11.5
11.2
10.8
11.22
11.33
OCT 25
11.57
11.64
NOV 25
11.72
11.86
DEC 25
11.81
12.07
JAN 26
11.82
12.04
FEB 26
11.65
11.71
MAR 26
11.13
11.19
APR 26
10.96
11.05
MAY 26
10.94
11.17
JUN 26
10.97
11.22
JUL 26
11.01
11.37
AUG 26
11.09
11.43
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.225
NOV 25 11.570
DEC 25 11.723
JAN 26 11.810
FEB 26 11.825
MAR 26 11.647
APR 26 11.135
MAY 26 10.960
JUN 26 10.940
JUL 26 10.966
AUG 26 11.005
SEP 26 11.086
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
OCT 25 11.330
NOV 25 11.640
DEC 25 11.860
JAN 26 12.070
FEB 26 12.040
MAR 26 11.705
APR 26 11.185
MAY 26 11.055
JUN 26 11.170
JUL 26 11.225
AUG 26 11.370
SEP 26 11.430

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.15
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 78
Last Updated: 2025-09-10 23:47:51

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

-0.4

CRUDE_OIL

0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (17 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.02
Closest Support: $2.98 1.32% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.2 5.96% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.98 Support
0.382 $3.2 Resistance
0.5 $3.38
0.618 $3.57
0.786 $3.82
1.0 $4.15

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.56
1.618 $5.09
2.0 $5.67
2.618 $6.62

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.03
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-10 23:47:52
Next Trading Day: UP 0.37%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-11 $3.04 $2.9 $3.19
2025-09-12 $3.04 $2.9 $3.19
2025-09-13 $3.03 $2.89 $3.18
2025-09-14 $3.03 $2.89 $3.18
2025-09-15 $3.04 $2.89 $3.18

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.37% for the next trading day (2025-09-11), reaching $3.04.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-11 and 2025-09-15.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~9.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.98, while resistance is at 3.2. This indicates potential volatility as prices approach these levels.

The ML price forecast predicts a slight increase of 0.37% with a trading range between 2.9 and 3.19. Traders should monitor for any short-term opportunities or risks as market sentiment remains neutral, with a sentiment score of +0.150.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance is currently at 12.30 BCFD, reflecting a change of +2.10. This indicates a slight increase in supply, which may affect pricing strategies. Producers should consider hedging strategies in light of the bearish technical outlook.

News sentiment around natural gas is negative (-0.400), while crude oil sentiment is positive (+0.700). This divergence suggests a need for careful production planning, especially in the natural gas segment, where lower output is impacting prices.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With a cooling-dominated weather outlook, residential heating demand is expected to remain low, potentially leading to stable prices for consumers. However, the fundamental balance indicates an increase in supply, which could lead to fluctuations in costs.

Consumers should remain vigilant about supply reliability risks, particularly in light of the bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas. Monitoring procurement strategies will be crucial as market dynamics evolve.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market picture reveals a bearish sentiment in natural gas, contrasted by a bullish outlook for crude oil. The fundamental balance shows an increase in supply, which could shift market dynamics.

Key driving factors include the cooling demand across all regions, impacting natural gas prices negatively. Analysts should consider these trends when forecasting future market shifts and advising clients on potential strategies.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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