MA(9): $3.05
MA(20): $2.94
MACD: 0.012
Signal: -0.0126
Days since crossover: 14
Value: 58.02
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 62,803
Avg (20d): 140,651
Ratio: 0.45
%K: 87.93
%D: 71.61
ADX: 15.23
+DI: 24.43
-DI: 17.85
Value: -12.07
Upper: 3.23
Middle: 2.94
Lower: 2.65
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.2 | 107.2 | 101.6 | 101.2 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.1 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 5.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.3 | 111.9 | 108.1 | 107.23 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 22.3 | 21.8 | 21.67 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.9 | 38.4 | 42.1 | 41.4 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.2 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 8.47 |
| LNG Exports | 16.0 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 12.43 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.1 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.33 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.77 |
| Total Demand | 99.5 | 99.6 | 98.9 | 97.03 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 12.8 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 10.2 |
TTF prices increased to 11.161 EUR/MWh (+0.068). JKM prices remained stable to 11.360 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.199 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: OCT 25
As of 2025-09-17
Front month: OCT 25
As of 2025-09-17
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-09-17
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| OCT 25 | 11.161 |
| NOV 25 | 11.500 |
| DEC 25 | 11.696 |
| JAN 26 | 11.793 |
| FEB 26 | 11.813 |
| MAR 26 | 11.636 |
| APR 26 | 11.163 |
| MAY 26 | 11.006 |
| JUN 26 | 10.994 |
| JUL 26 | 11.024 |
| AUG 26 | 11.066 |
| SEP 26 | 11.146 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| OCT 25 | 11.360 |
| NOV 25 | 11.450 |
| DEC 25 | 11.710 |
| JAN 26 | 11.925 |
| FEB 26 | 11.960 |
| MAR 26 | 11.660 |
| APR 26 | 11.165 |
| MAY 26 | 11.050 |
| JUN 26 | 11.170 |
| JUL 26 | 11.280 |
| AUG 26 | 11.395 |
| SEP 26 | 11.425 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-16 | $3.02 | $2.88 | $3.16 |
| 2025-09-17 | $3.03 | $2.89 | $3.17 |
| 2025-09-18 | $3.05 | $2.91 | $3.19 |
| 2025-09-19 | $3.05 | $2.91 | $3.19 |
| 2025-09-20 | $3.04 | $2.9 | $3.18 |
Current market conditions present a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.05 while resistance is at 3.19. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.68%, suggesting traders should be cautious of short-term price movements.
With cooling demand dominating across most regions, particularly in the South and West, traders should monitor cooling degree days (CDD) closely as they could influence natural gas prices. The overall market sentiment remains strong at +0.650, driven by recent output drops in natural gas. However, the slight increase in fundamental balance to 12.80 BCFD should also be considered for volatility assessments.
Producers should note the bullish sentiment surrounding natural gas, with a sentiment score of +0.700. This is bolstered by reports of output drops leading to price increases. The fundamental balance indicates a slight increase, which may suggest a stable production environment, but producers should remain vigilant of market fluctuations.
Given the low heating demand expected, particularly in the Northeast, producers may need to adjust their strategies accordingly. Hedging strategies should account for potential volatility as cooling demand drives consumption, especially in warmer regions. The current market dynamics could provide opportunities for profit if managed carefully.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas due to the current market sentiment and the expected moderate cooling demand. The forecast indicates a cooling trend, especially in the South and West, which may lead to increased prices as demand rises.
With a fundamental balance of 12.80 BCFD, supply appears somewhat stable, but consumers should remain cautious about procurement strategies in light of the potential price drop indicated by the ML price forecast. Engaging in hedging may be prudent to mitigate risks associated with price volatility in the near term.
The current market landscape reflects a mix of bullish and neutral signals. The fundamental balance has increased slightly, suggesting a stable supply environment, while the technical indicators remain neutral. The cooling demand across regions is a significant driving factor for natural gas prices, particularly in warmer areas.
Analysts should closely monitor the ML price forecast predicting a decline, which could indicate a short-term shift in market dynamics. The overall market sentiment remains strong, but the divergence in regional demand patterns may create opportunities for strategic analysis and insights into pricing trends.