Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-18 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/18/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas is really NOT THAT BEARISH - when we look at the full picture. What is bearish is that we are close to where we were last year on inventories (which is bearish) - BUT….power demand is strong, LNG exports will be expanding in Q4, production is stalling, and Canadian imports appear to be dropping (big problem for the winter). The key price level I’m watching today is 2.924 which is the last line of support before dropping to 2.76 and 2.449 - from a technical viewpoint this looks very likely….from a fundamental viewpoint - I don’t see a strong reason to drop that far given a forecasted tighter supply-demand balance.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-18 23:46:43 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas is experiencing a bearish spell, largely driven by a significant rise in EIA inventories and cooling U.S. temperatures, causing prices to drop over 5%. However, it's not all doom and gloom; despite recent storage builds, power demand remains robust, LNG exports are set to increase in Q4, and production is stalling. The key support level is 2.924, and a breach could signal further declines, but fundamentals suggest a tighter supply-demand balance may prevent dra...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $2.94
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.03

MA(20): $2.96

Current Price is 2.94, 9 day MA 3.03, 20 day MA 2.96

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0079

Signal: -0.0042

Days since crossover: 16

MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.97

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.97 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 1,786

Avg (20d): 137,567

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 20.97

%D: 58.2

Stochastic %K: 20.97, %D: 58.2. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.25

+DI: 19.77

-DI: 21.34

ADX: 14.25 (+DI: 19.77, -DI: 21.34). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -79.03

Williams %R: -79.03 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.23

Middle: 2.96

Lower: 2.7

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.23, Middle: 2.96, Lower: 2.7

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.0 107.2 101.5 100.93
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 5.1 6.2 5.63
Total Supply 111.8 112.3 107.8 106.63
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.5 22.1 21.9
Electric Power Demand 38.2 36.9 38.9 39.23
Residential & Commercial 8.8 10.2 9.0 8.8
LNG Exports 16.2 16.0 13.4 12.23
Mexico Exports 6.5 7.1 6.8 6.3
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.73
Total Demand 98.5 99.5 96.8 95.17
Supply/Demand Balance 13.3 12.8 11.0 11.47

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.0, CDD: 7.2)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 1.0)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 3.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 12.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 18.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 3.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 55.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 42.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 12.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 167.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 18.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 154.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 1.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 54.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.33
Daily: 0.46 (0.48%)
Weekly: -0.22 (-0.22%)

US_10Y

4.1
Daily: 0.03 (0.69%)
Weekly: 0.04 (1.06%)

SP500

6631.96
Daily: 31.61 (0.48%)
Weekly: 47.67 (0.72%)

VIX

15.7
Daily: -0.02 (-0.13%)
Weekly: 0.94 (6.37%)

GOLD

3687.7
Daily: 5.9 (0.16%)
Weekly: 38.3 (1.05%)

COPPER

4.62
Daily: 0.05 (1.01%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.62%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-09
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,631,092
Change: -4,577

Managed Money

-24,752
Change: +12,010
-1.5% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-30,640
Change: -8,946
-1.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

113,956
Change: +3,050
7.0% of OI

Other Reportables

-69,795
Change: -3,781
-4.3% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-09
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,957,115
Change: -30,746

Managed Money

10,002
Change: -17,321
0.5% of OI

Producer/Merchant

301,400
Change: +1,664
15.4% of OI

Swap Dealers

-403,555
Change: +17,576
-20.6% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.170 EUR/MWh (+0.009). JKM prices remained stable to 11.360 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.190 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.170

+0.009

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-18

JKM Prices

11.360

+0.000

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-18

JKM-TTF Spread

0.190

1.70%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-18

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.1
11.8
11.5
11.2
10.9
11.17
11.36
OCT 25
11.52
11.48
NOV 25
11.71
11.78
DEC 25
11.82
11.98
JAN 26
11.84
11.98
FEB 26
11.66
11.69
MAR 26
11.19
11.19
APR 26
11.04
11.09
MAY 26
11.03
11.20
JUN 26
11.05
11.30
JUL 26
11.11
11.44
AUG 26
11.19
11.46
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.170
NOV 25 11.515
DEC 25 11.714
JAN 26 11.817
FEB 26 11.839
MAR 26 11.665
APR 26 11.194
MAY 26 11.036
JUN 26 11.030
JUL 26 11.054
AUG 26 11.106
SEP 26 11.193
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
OCT 25 11.360
NOV 25 11.480
DEC 25 11.775
JAN 26 11.980
FEB 26 11.980
MAR 26 11.685
APR 26 11.190
MAY 26 11.085
JUN 26 11.200
JUL 26 11.305
AUG 26 11.435
SEP 26 11.465

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.5
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 91
Last Updated: 2025-09-18 23:47:28

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

-0.6

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Demand (6 articles)

Infrastructure (4 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $2.94
Closest Support: $2.89 1.7% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.05 3.74% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.89 Support
0.382 $3.05 Resistance
0.5 $3.19
0.618 $3.32
0.786 $3.51
1.0 $3.75

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.06
1.618 $4.45
2.0 $4.88
2.618 $5.58

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.94
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-18 23:47:28
Next Trading Day: UP 0.75%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-19 $2.96 $2.81 $3.11
2025-09-20 $2.95 $2.8 $3.1
2025-09-21 $2.93 $2.79 $3.08
2025-09-22 $2.93 $2.78 $3.08
2025-09-23 $2.95 $2.8 $3.1

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.75% for the next trading day (2025-09-19), reaching $2.96.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-19 and 2025-09-23.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci levels indicate support at 2.89 and resistance at 3.05, which could define short-term trading strategies. The ML price forecast anticipates an increase of 0.75%, with a projected range of 2.81 to 3.11. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility due to the overall market sentiment and consider positioning around the identified support and resistance levels.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current fundamental balance stands at 13.30 BCFD with a slight increase of +0.50, indicating a stable supply backdrop. However, the negative news sentiment surrounding energy demand and geopolitical tensions may influence market dynamics. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations and potential supply disruptions. Monitoring storage levels and adjusting production plans in response to demand forecasts will be crucial.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the weather outlook indicating low heating demand and a predominance of cooling degree days, consumers can expect stable prices in the short term. However, the overall market sentiment and potential supply risks highlighted in recent news articles suggest that procurement strategies should be revisited. Keeping a close watch on supply reliability and considering hedging options could help mitigate any unforeseen cost fluctuations.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market presents a bearish outlook driven by a combination of factors including fundamental supply increases and negative news sentiment regarding demand. The cooling demand forecast may provide temporary relief, but geopolitical tensions and market sentiment could shift dynamics rapidly. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply, demand, and sentiment to anticipate future market movements, particularly as the ML price forecast suggests potential upward movement in the near term.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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