Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-19 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/19/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas is really NOT THAT BEARISH - when we look at the full picture. What is bearish is that we are close to where we were last year on inventories (which is bearish) - BUT….power demand is strong, LNG exports will be expanding in Q4, production is stalling, and Canadian imports appear to be dropping (big problem for the winter). The key price level I’m watching today is 2.924 which is the last line of support before dropping to 2.76 and 2.449 - from a technical viewpoint this looks very likely….from a fundamental viewpoint - I don’t see a strong reason to drop that far given a forecasted tighter supply-demand balance.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-19 23:46:31 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices are facing downward pressure, recently dipping to a three-week low due to abundant supplies, cooler weather, and concerns over inventory levels. While current inventories mirror last year's bearish outlook, strong power demand and rising LNG exports in Q4 offer a silver lining. The critical support level to monitor is 2.924; a breach could lead to drops towards 2.76 and 2.449. However, with a tightening supply-demand balance forecasted, the market may no...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $2.92
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.01

MA(20): $2.97

Current Price is 2.92, 9 day MA 3.01, 20 day MA 2.97

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0001

Signal: -0.0034

Days since crossover: 17

MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.88

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.88 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 131,150

Avg (20d): 147,295

Ratio: 0.89

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 17.89

%D: 37.0

Stochastic %K: 17.89, %D: 37.0. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.13

+DI: 18.74

-DI: 23.89

ADX: 14.13 (+DI: 18.74, -DI: 23.89). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -82.11

Williams %R: -82.11 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.23

Middle: 2.97

Lower: 2.71

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.23, Middle: 2.97, Lower: 2.71

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.0 107.2 101.5 100.93
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 5.1 6.2 5.63
Total Supply 111.8 112.3 107.8 106.63
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.5 22.1 21.9
Electric Power Demand 38.2 36.9 38.9 39.23
Residential & Commercial 8.8 10.2 9.0 8.8
LNG Exports 16.2 16.0 13.4 12.23
Mexico Exports 6.5 7.1 6.8 6.3
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.73
Total Demand 98.5 99.5 96.8 95.17
Supply/Demand Balance 13.3 12.8 11.0 11.47

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.5, CDD: 4.6)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 0.5)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 2.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 8.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 14.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 2.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 4.0
Total CDD: 32.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 46.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 8.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 157.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 14.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 152.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 48.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.65
Daily: 0.3 (0.31%)
Weekly: 0.35 (0.36%)

US_10Y

4.14
Daily: 0.03 (0.85%)
Weekly: 0.11 (2.6%)

SP500

6664.36
Daily: 32.4 (0.49%)
Weekly: 49.08 (0.74%)

VIX

15.45
Daily: -0.25 (-1.59%)
Weekly: -0.24 (-1.53%)

GOLD

3719.4
Daily: 75.7 (2.08%)
Weekly: 37.2 (1.01%)

COPPER

4.63
Daily: 0.09 (1.97%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.54%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,638,680
Change: +7,588

Managed Money

-23,091
Change: +1,661
-1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-13,656
Change: +16,984
-0.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

118,075
Change: +4,119
7.2% of OI

Other Reportables

-87,853
Change: -18,058
-5.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,962,620
Change: +5,505

Managed Money

36,799
Change: +26,797
1.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

292,741
Change: -8,659
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-407,490
Change: -3,935
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.214 EUR/MWh (+0.044). JKM prices increased to 11.525 USD/MMBtu (+0.045). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.311 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.214

+0.044

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-19

JKM Prices

11.525

+0.045

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-19

JKM-TTF Spread

0.311

2.77%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-19

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.1
11.8
11.5
11.3
11.0
11.21
11.53
OCT 25
11.59
11.79
NOV 25
11.76
11.99
DEC 25
11.86
11.98
JAN 26
11.88
11.71
FEB 26
11.70
11.23
MAR 26
11.25
11.13
APR 26
11.09
11.23
MAY 26
11.09
11.35
JUN 26
11.12
11.48
JUL 26
11.17
11.51
AUG 26
11.24
11.62
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.214
NOV 25 11.590
DEC 25 11.762
JAN 26 11.860
FEB 26 11.879
MAR 26 11.703
APR 26 11.250
MAY 26 11.091
JUN 26 11.087
JUL 26 11.118
AUG 26 11.169
SEP 26 11.244
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.525
DEC 25 11.795
JAN 26 11.995
FEB 26 11.985
MAR 26 11.710
APR 26 11.235
MAY 26 11.130
JUN 26 11.235
JUL 26 11.345
AUG 26 11.485
SEP 26 11.510
OCT 26 11.620

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.433
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 94
Last Updated: 2025-09-19 23:47:38

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

NATURAL_GAS

-0.7

HEATING_OIL

0.0

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (8 articles)

Infrastructure (5 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $2.92
Closest Support: $2.89 1.03% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.05 4.45% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.89 Support
0.382 $3.05 Resistance
0.5 $3.19
0.618 $3.32
0.786 $3.51
1.0 $3.75

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.06
1.618 $4.45
2.0 $4.88
2.618 $5.58

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.94
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-19 23:47:39
Next Trading Day: UP 0.76%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-19 $2.96 $2.81 $3.11
2025-09-20 $2.95 $2.8 $3.1
2025-09-21 $2.94 $2.79 $3.08
2025-09-22 $2.93 $2.79 $3.08
2025-09-23 $2.95 $2.8 $3.1

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.76% for the next trading day (2025-09-19), reaching $2.96.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-19 and 2025-09-23.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.433. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.89 and resistance is at 3.05. Prices are forecasted to rise slightly by 0.76%, indicating potential short-term opportunities. However, with a moderately bearish technical interpretation and a fundamental balance of 13.30 BCFD (an increase of +0.50), traders should remain cautious and consider the potential for volatility.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The bearish sentiment and mixed inventory figures suggest a need for careful production planning. The current fundamental balance indicates a stable supply situation, but with low demand signals, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate price volatility. Monitoring the weather outlook is crucial, as low heating demand is expected, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions, which could further affect demand forecasts.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the current bearish sentiment in the market and low expected heating demand, consumers may benefit from stable pricing in the short term. However, the potential for price fluctuations exists due to the moderately bearish technical outlook and low cooling demand forecasts across several regions. It may be prudent to explore procurement strategies or hedging options to secure favorable pricing amidst uncertainty.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is characterized by a bearish sentiment across multiple commodities, particularly crude oil and natural gas. The fundamental balance suggests an oversupply, while the weather outlook indicates low demand for both heating and cooling. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical factors and inventory trends, as these could shift market dynamics and outlooks significantly in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific guidance.

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