Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-20 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/20/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas is really NOT THAT BEARISH - when we look at the full picture. What is bearish is that we are close to where we were last year on inventories (which is bearish) - BUT….power demand is strong, LNG exports will be expanding in Q4, production is stalling, and Canadian imports appear to be dropping (big problem for the winter). The key price level I’m watching is 2.924 which is the last line of support before dropping to 2.76 and 2.449 - from a technical viewpoint this looks very likely….from a fundamental viewpoint - I don’t see a strong reason to drop that far given a forecasted tighter supply-demand balance.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-20 23:46:25 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices are experiencing a downturn, hitting a three-week low, primarily due to rising inventories and cooler weather forecasts. While current inventory levels are similar to last year, factors such as strong power demand, expanding LNG exports, and stalling production could provide support. Key technical levels to watch include 2.924, which is critical for potential support. Despite bearish sentiment, the overall outlook remains mixed as we approach winter, hig...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $2.89
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.01

MA(20): $2.96

Current Price is 2.89, 9 day MA 3.01, 20 day MA 2.96

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0025

Signal: -0.0039

Days since crossover: 17

MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.35

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.35 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 180,476

Avg (20d): 149,762

Ratio: 1.21

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 9.09

%D: 34.07

Stochastic %K: 9.09, %D: 34.07. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.13

+DI: 18.74

-DI: 23.89

ADX: 14.13 (+DI: 18.74, -DI: 23.89). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -90.91

Williams %R: -90.91 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.23

Middle: 2.96

Lower: 2.7

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.23, Middle: 2.96, Lower: 2.7

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.0 107.2 101.5 100.93
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 5.1 6.2 5.63
Total Supply 111.8 112.3 107.8 106.63
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.5 22.1 21.9
Electric Power Demand 38.2 36.9 38.9 39.23
Residential & Commercial 8.8 10.2 9.0 8.8
LNG Exports 16.2 16.0 13.4 12.23
Mexico Exports 6.5 7.1 6.8 6.3
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.73
Total Demand 98.5 99.5 96.8 95.17
Supply/Demand Balance 13.3 12.8 11.0 11.47

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.1, CDD: 6.7)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 5.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 0.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 5.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 18.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 0.5
Total CDD: 41.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 4.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 44.5

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 5.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 126.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 18.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 154.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 6.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 60.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.64
Daily: 0.29 (0.3%)
Weekly: 0.34 (0.35%)

US_10Y

4.14
Daily: 0.03 (0.85%)
Weekly: 0.11 (2.6%)

SP500

6664.36
Daily: 32.4 (0.49%)
Weekly: 49.08 (0.74%)

VIX

15.45
Daily: -0.25 (-1.59%)
Weekly: -0.24 (-1.53%)

GOLD

3671.5
Daily: 27.8 (0.76%)
Weekly: -10.7 (-0.29%)

COPPER

4.57
Daily: 0.03 (0.62%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-1.86%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,638,680
Change: +7,588

Managed Money

-23,091
Change: +1,661
-1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-13,656
Change: +16,984
-0.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

118,075
Change: +4,119
7.2% of OI

Other Reportables

-87,853
Change: -18,058
-5.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,962,620
Change: +5,505

Managed Money

36,799
Change: +26,797
1.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

292,741
Change: -8,659
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-407,490
Change: -3,935
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 11.138 EUR/MWh (-0.076). JKM prices decreased to 11.365 USD/MMBtu (-0.160). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.227 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.138

-0.076

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-20

JKM Prices

11.365

-0.160

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-20

JKM-TTF Spread

0.227

2.04%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-20

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.6
11.3
11.1
10.8
11.14
11.37
OCT 25
11.36
11.54
NOV 25
11.53
11.74
DEC 25
11.63
11.73
JAN 26
11.65
11.45
FEB 26
11.48
11.01
MAR 26
11.06
10.91
APR 26
10.93
11.03
MAY 26
10.93
11.13
JUN 26
10.96
11.27
JUL 26
11.00
11.30
AUG 26
11.09
11.43
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.138
NOV 25 11.360
DEC 25 11.530
JAN 26 11.627
FEB 26 11.652
MAR 26 11.485
APR 26 11.064
MAY 26 10.925
JUN 26 10.931
JUL 26 10.963
AUG 26 11.000
SEP 26 11.086
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.365
DEC 25 11.540
JAN 26 11.740
FEB 26 11.735
MAR 26 11.450
APR 26 11.010
MAY 26 10.915
JUN 26 11.030
JUL 26 11.135
AUG 26 11.270
SEP 26 11.305
OCT 26 11.425

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.433
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 71
Last Updated: 2025-09-20 23:47:13

Commodity Sentiment

HEATING_OIL

0.0

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

NATURAL_GAS

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (6 articles)

Infrastructure (5 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $2.89
Closest Support: $2.62 9.34% below current price
Closest Resistance: $2.89 0.0% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62 Support
0.236 $2.89 Current Price
0.382 $3.05
0.5 $3.19
0.618 $3.32
0.786 $3.51
1.0 $3.75

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.06
1.618 $4.45
2.0 $4.88
2.618 $5.58

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.89
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-20 23:47:13
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.21%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-20 $2.88 $2.73 $3.03
2025-09-21 $2.87 $2.72 $3.02
2025-09-22 $2.86 $2.71 $3.01
2025-09-23 $2.88 $2.73 $3.03
2025-09-24 $2.88 $2.73 $3.03

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.21% for the next trading day (2025-09-20), reaching $2.88.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-20 and 2025-09-24.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.62, while resistance is at 2.89. Traders should be cautious of potential downside movements, especially with the ML forecast predicting a 0.21% decline in prices, indicating possible volatility in the short term.

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For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance shows a slight increase to 13.30 BCFD, suggesting stable supply conditions. However, the overall market sentiment is negative, particularly for crude oil with a sentiment score of -0.600. Producers may need to reassess their hedging strategies and production planning to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand and bearish news sentiment.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With a predominance of cooling demand expected across regions and low heating needs, consumers should prepare for stable pricing in the short term. However, the bearish sentiment in the market could lead to price fluctuations, especially if supply concerns worsen. Monitoring supply reliability risks will be crucial for procurement decisions moving forward.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently influenced by a combination of bearish sentiment and moderate supply levels, with the fundamental balance indicating a slight increase. The prevailing weather patterns favor cooling demand, which may provide temporary support. Analysts should focus on the strategic implications of these trends as they could signal a shift in market dynamics, particularly if demand concerns persist.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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