Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-23 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/23/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Right when I said Nat Gas is not THAT BEARISH - we see a drop - seasonally we are slightly higher than normal on storage 6.3%, but the forward look is during our shoulder month - so I’m not sure what traders are so worried about….this is all NORMAL seasonal weakness! Many analysts are projecting a 3.9 TCF exit to injection season - I still have 3.84 TCF in my model. Technicals are looking very bearish for the October contract - but remember - we are rolling from Oct (currently 2.80) to Nov (currently 3.09). On the rollover this week we are likely to gravitate and center at 2.924 - which is back to where we started. The chart looks bearish and we still have a rollover gap to 2.70 and a bigger gap at 2.449…but don’t forget we have a gap up there around 3.449 too! Fundamentally we SHOULD be $3+, Technically we could head down before back up….

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-23 23:46:38 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices faced recent volatility, hitting a four-week low before rebounding slightly as forecasts predict hotter weather. Current storage levels are 6.3% above normal, with analysts projecting a 3.9 TCF exit from injection season. As we transition from the October contract (around $2.80) to November (about $3.09), technical indicators suggest bearish trends, but fundamentals indicate a potential stabilization above $3. Watch for inventory updates as they could sw...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.14
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.99

MA(20): $2.99

Current Price is 3.14, 9 day MA 2.99, 20 day MA 2.99

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0016

Signal: -0.0055

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 56.82

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 56.82 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 1,698

Avg (20d): 149,109

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 85.79

%D: 31.8

Stochastic %K: 85.79, %D: 31.8. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.91

+DI: 24.35

-DI: 20.85

ADX: 13.91 (+DI: 24.35, -DI: 20.85). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -14.21

Williams %R: -14.21 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.21

Middle: 2.99

Lower: 2.77

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.21, Middle: 2.99, Lower: 2.77

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.0 107.2 101.5 100.93
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 5.1 6.2 5.63
Total Supply 111.8 112.3 107.8 106.63
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.5 22.1 21.9
Electric Power Demand 38.2 36.9 38.9 39.23
Residential & Commercial 8.8 10.2 9.0 8.8
LNG Exports 16.2 16.0 13.4 12.23
Mexico Exports 6.5 7.1 6.8 6.3
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.73
Total Demand 98.5 99.5 96.8 95.17
Supply/Demand Balance 13.3 12.8 11.0 11.47

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.0, CDD: 9.0)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 4.2)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 6.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 5.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 24.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 6.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 57.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 1.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 61.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 5.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 126.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 24.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 167.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 75.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.35
Daily: 0.02 (0.02%)
Weekly: 0.48 (0.5%)

US_10Y

4.12
Daily: -0.02 (-0.56%)
Weekly: 0.04 (1.08%)

SP500

6656.92
Daily: -36.83 (-0.55%)
Weekly: 56.57 (0.86%)

VIX

16.64
Daily: 0.54 (3.35%)
Weekly: 0.92 (5.85%)

GOLD

3797.5
Daily: 56.8 (1.52%)
Weekly: 115.7 (3.14%)

COPPER

4.64
Daily: 0.07 (1.57%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.62%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,638,680
Change: +7,588

Managed Money

-23,091
Change: +1,661
-1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-13,656
Change: +16,984
-0.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

118,075
Change: +4,119
7.2% of OI

Other Reportables

-87,853
Change: -18,058
-5.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,962,620
Change: +5,505

Managed Money

36,799
Change: +26,797
1.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

292,741
Change: -8,659
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-407,490
Change: -3,935
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 11.097 EUR/MWh (-0.041). JKM prices decreased to 11.270 USD/MMBtu (-0.095). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.173 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.097

-0.041

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-23

JKM Prices

11.270

-0.095

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-23

JKM-TTF Spread

0.173

1.56%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-23

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.7
11.5
11.2
11.0
10.7
11.10
11.27
OCT 25
11.19
11.43
NOV 25
11.35
11.64
DEC 25
11.46
11.61
JAN 26
11.48
11.35
FEB 26
11.32
10.91
MAR 26
10.90
10.84
APR 26
10.78
10.93
MAY 26
10.80
11.05
JUN 26
10.84
11.20
JUL 26
10.89
11.23
AUG 26
10.97
11.36
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.097
NOV 25 11.192
DEC 25 11.353
JAN 26 11.457
FEB 26 11.483
MAR 26 11.321
APR 26 10.905
MAY 26 10.783
JUN 26 10.799
JUL 26 10.838
AUG 26 10.889
SEP 26 10.973
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.270
DEC 25 11.430
JAN 26 11.640
FEB 26 11.610
MAR 26 11.345
APR 26 10.910
MAY 26 10.835
JUN 26 10.930
JUL 26 11.050
AUG 26 11.195
SEP 26 11.230
OCT 26 11.360

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.267
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 58
Last Updated: 2025-09-23 23:47:33

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

NATURAL_GAS

-0.4

HEATING_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.14
Closest Support: $3.13 0.32% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.24 3.18% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13 Support
0.618 $3.24 Resistance
0.786 $3.41
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.85
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-23 23:47:33
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.45%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-24 $2.84 $2.7 $2.98
2025-09-25 $2.85 $2.71 $3.0
2025-09-26 $2.86 $2.71 $3.0
2025-09-27 $2.86 $2.72 $3.01
2025-09-28 $2.86 $2.71 $3.0

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.45% for the next trading day (2025-09-24), reaching $2.84.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-24 and 2025-09-28.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 3.13 and resistance at 3.24, suggesting limited price movement in the immediate term.

With a fundamental balance of 13.30 BCFD (up by 0.50), traders should be cautious of potential volatility, especially given the cooling demand expected across all regions, which may impact short-term pricing.

Additionally, the ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.45%, reinforcing the need for traders to monitor market sentiment, which remains bullish overall.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the fundamental balance of 13.30 BCFD as a signal for potential production adjustments. The negative sentiment surrounding natural gas (-0.400) indicates caution in production planning.

With a low heating demand forecasted, particularly in the residential and commercial sectors, producers might want to revisit their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand.

The geopolitical risks highlighted in recent news could also necessitate a review of operational strategies to ensure resilience against potential supply chain disruptions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should be prepared for potential cost fluctuations in energy pricing due to the moderate cooling demand expected this season. This could lead to increased demand for natural gas, impacting prices.

The fundamental balance indicates an increase in supply, which might provide some relief in terms of procurement costs. However, the negative sentiment around natural gas suggests that consumers should consider hedging options to protect against sudden price spikes.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market conditions present a neutral technical outlook with a fundamental balance of 13.30 BCFD, suggesting stability in the short term. However, the negative sentiment in natural gas markets is a key concern.

Geopolitical factors are influencing crude oil prices negatively, while cooling demand across all regions may affect overall energy consumption patterns. Analysts should closely monitor these dynamics as they could lead to significant shifts in market sentiment and pricing.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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