Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-27 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/27/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
After the rollover, we are now in a wider range of 3.127 and 3.247 (we touched both on Friday). From Friday’s trading it looks likely that we may break below 3.127 and move down to 2.924 to complete the rollover gap - but one interesting thing this year - most of those gaps have not really been closed in short order. From a macro - we still have two gaps on the continuous chart: 3.449 and 2.449 - and Nat Gas has been teasing the closing of those gaps but kept us on edge with the $3 anchor. Fundamentally: production is stalling, canadian imports are dropping, demand has been higher than expected, and incremental lng is on its way - all this leads to a solid building. Fair value I think is 3.50….but Mr. Market does not care what I think is fair value…so this week - I will be watching the tropical system on the eastern shore - as that could knock out a lot of power demand (bearish). Technically I am watching 3.127 as if that goes then we are likely going all the way down to 2.924. If we break above 3.247 then we will be headed up to close the 3.449 gap.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-27 23:46:43 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas is currently in a wide trading range of 3.127 to 3.247, with potential bearish moves below 3.127 pointing towards 2.924. Despite ample supplies and mixed demand, the market has seen unexpected firmness due to stalling production and dropping Canadian imports. Key gaps at 3.449 and 2.449 remain unclosed, adding uncertainty. Watch for the tropical system's impact on demand, as it could significantly influence prices in the coming days. Fair value estimates hover ...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $2.84
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.92

MA(20): $2.98

Current Price is 2.84, 9 day MA 2.92, 20 day MA 2.98

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.0352

Signal: -0.0209

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 42.33

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 42.33 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 74,214

Avg (20d): 141,837

Ratio: 0.52

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 15.91

%D: 22.36

Stochastic %K: 15.91, %D: 22.36. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.16

+DI: 18.09

-DI: 23.74

ADX: 14.16 (+DI: 18.09, -DI: 23.74). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -84.09

Williams %R: -84.09 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.18

Middle: 2.98

Lower: 2.79

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.18, Middle: 2.98, Lower: 2.79

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 106.7 107.0 101.2 100.37
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.53
Total Supply 111.7 111.8 107.2 105.97
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.73
Electric Power Demand 40.0 38.2 38.6 37.27
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.83
LNG Exports 16.3 16.2 12.9 12.5
Mexico Exports 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.13
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 101.3 98.5 95.4 93.1
Supply/Demand Balance 10.4 13.3 11.8 12.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.2, CDD: 5.8)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 0.5)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 8.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 6.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 14.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 8.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 64.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 6.0
Total CDD: 38.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 6.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 120.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 14.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 137.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 1.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 5.0
Total CDD: 34.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.15
Daily: -0.4 (-0.41%)
Weekly: 0.82 (0.84%)

US_10Y

4.19
Daily: 0.01 (0.36%)
Weekly: 0.04 (1.06%)

SP500

6643.7
Daily: 38.98 (0.59%)
Weekly: -50.05 (-0.75%)

VIX

15.29
Daily: -1.45 (-8.66%)
Weekly: -0.81 (-5.03%)

GOLD

3775.3
Daily: 38.4 (1.03%)
Weekly: 34.6 (0.92%)

COPPER

4.72
Daily: 0.02 (0.33%)
Weekly: 0.14 (3.12%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.130 EUR/MWh (+0.009). JKM prices increased to 11.295 USD/MMBtu (+0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.165 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.130

+0.009

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-27

JKM Prices

11.295

+0.015

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-27

JKM-TTF Spread

0.165

1.48%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-27

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.5
11.3
11.0
10.7
11.13
11.29
OCT 25
11.38
11.45
NOV 25
11.52
11.69
DEC 25
11.62
11.64
JAN 26
11.62
11.36
FEB 26
11.46
10.91
MAR 26
11.06
10.82
APR 26
10.91
10.96
MAY 26
10.94
11.06
JUN 26
10.95
11.21
JUL 26
11.01
11.24
AUG 26
11.09
11.37
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.130
NOV 25 11.375
DEC 25 11.515
JAN 26 11.618
FEB 26 11.625
MAR 26 11.464
APR 26 11.059
MAY 26 10.911
JUN 26 10.937
JUL 26 10.951
AUG 26 11.006
SEP 26 11.089
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.295
DEC 25 11.450
JAN 26 11.690
FEB 26 11.640
MAR 26 11.360
APR 26 10.915
MAY 26 10.820
JUN 26 10.960
JUL 26 11.060
AUG 26 11.210
SEP 26 11.245
OCT 26 11.370

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.283
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 63
Last Updated: 2025-09-27 23:47:39

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.75

NATURAL_GAS

0.1

HEATING_OIL

0.0

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $2.84
Closest Support: $2.62 7.75% below current price
Closest Resistance: $2.86 0.7% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62 Support
0.236 $2.86 Resistance
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13
0.618 $3.24
0.786 $3.41
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.84
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-27 23:47:40
Next Trading Day: UP 0.62%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-27 $2.85 $2.71 $3.0
2025-09-28 $2.85 $2.7 $2.99
2025-09-29 $2.84 $2.7 $2.99
2025-09-30 $2.84 $2.7 $2.98
2025-10-01 $2.85 $2.7 $2.99

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.62% for the next trading day (2025-09-27), reaching $2.85.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-27 and 2025-10-01.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.62, while resistance is at 2.86. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the price is forecasted to increase by 0.62% within the range of 2.71 to 3.0. This indicates short-term opportunities but also highlights the need for close monitoring of market movements.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance is currently at 10.40 BCFD, showing a decrease of -2.90. This might prompt producers to consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies to mitigate potential risks from market fluctuations. The overall market sentiment is positive, particularly for crude oil, which could influence pricing strategies moving forward.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the weather outlook indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, consumers may experience cost fluctuations in their energy procurement strategies. The current fundamental balance suggests ample supply, but the potential for price increases in the near term could necessitate proactive hedging to manage costs effectively.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market presents a complex picture with a moderately bearish technical outlook and a bullish news sentiment overall. The key driving factors include the fundamental balance indicating a decrease in demand and the weather forecasts favoring cooling trends. Analysts should closely monitor these trends for potential shifts in the market outlook, particularly as geopolitical factors continue to influence crude oil prices.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.