Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-28 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/28/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
After the rollover, we are now in a wider range of 3.127 and 3.247 (we touched both on Friday). From Friday’s trading (and Sunday’s open) it looks likely that we may break below 3.127 and move down to 2.924 to complete the rollover gap - but one interesting thing this year - most of those gaps have not really been closed in short order. From a macro - we still have two gaps on the continuous chart: 3.449 and 2.449 - and Nat Gas has been teasing the closing of those gaps but kept us on edge with the $3 anchor. Fundamentally: production is stalling, canadian imports are dropping, demand has been higher than expected, and incremental lng is on its way - all this leads to a solid building. Fair value I think is 3.50….but Mr. Market does not care what I think is fair value…so this week - I will be watching the tropical system on the eastern shore - as that could knock out a lot of power demand (bearish). Technically I am watching 3.127 as the key bull/bear line If we break above 3.247 then we will be headed up to close the 3.449 gap.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-28 23:46:48 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas is currently trading within a range of 3.127 to 3.247, with a potential bearish outlook as we may test lower levels, possibly down to 2.924. Despite production stalling and increasing demand, ample supplies are keeping prices in check. The upcoming tropical system could further impact power demand, adding to the bearish sentiment. Key levels to watch are 3.127 for support and 3.247 for a bullish breakout, with fair value lingering around 3.50, though market whi...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.15
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.93

MA(20): $2.99

Current Price is 3.15, 9 day MA 2.93, 20 day MA 2.99

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0136

Signal: -0.0194

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 59.28

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 59.28 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 4,712

Avg (20d): 142,073

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 91.35

%D: 46.08

Stochastic %K: 91.35, %D: 46.08. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.21

+DI: 26.66

-DI: 19.76

ADX: 14.21 (+DI: 26.66, -DI: 19.76). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -8.65

Williams %R: -8.65 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.2

Middle: 2.99

Lower: 2.78

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.2, Middle: 2.99, Lower: 2.78

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 106.7 107.0 101.2 100.37
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.53
Total Supply 111.7 111.8 107.2 105.97
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.73
Electric Power Demand 40.0 38.2 38.6 37.27
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.83
LNG Exports 16.3 16.2 12.9 12.5
Mexico Exports 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.13
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 101.3 98.5 95.4 93.1
Supply/Demand Balance 10.4 13.3 11.8 12.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.0, CDD: 7.8)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 4.2)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 8.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 7.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 14.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 8.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 66.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 5.0
Total HDD: 6.5
Total CDD: 38.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 131.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 14.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 137.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 3.5
Total HDD: 2.5
Total CDD: 35.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.95
Daily: -0.2 (-0.21%)
Weekly: 0.69 (0.71%)

US_10Y

4.19
Daily: 0.01 (0.36%)
Weekly: 0.04 (1.06%)

SP500

6643.7
Daily: 38.98 (0.59%)
Weekly: -50.05 (-0.75%)

VIX

15.29
Daily: -1.45 (-8.66%)
Weekly: -0.81 (-5.03%)

GOLD

3825.7
Daily: 50.4 (1.33%)
Weekly: 45.1 (1.19%)

COPPER

4.81
Daily: 0.1 (2.01%)
Weekly: 0.23 (4.93%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.130 EUR/MWh (+0.009). JKM prices increased to 11.295 USD/MMBtu (+0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.165 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.130

+0.009

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-28

JKM Prices

11.295

+0.015

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-28

JKM-TTF Spread

0.165

1.48%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-28

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.5
11.3
11.0
10.7
11.13
11.29
OCT 25
11.38
11.45
NOV 25
11.52
11.69
DEC 25
11.62
11.64
JAN 26
11.62
11.36
FEB 26
11.46
10.91
MAR 26
11.06
10.82
APR 26
10.91
10.96
MAY 26
10.94
11.06
JUN 26
10.95
11.21
JUL 26
11.01
11.24
AUG 26
11.09
11.37
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.130
NOV 25 11.375
DEC 25 11.515
JAN 26 11.618
FEB 26 11.625
MAR 26 11.464
APR 26 11.059
MAY 26 10.911
JUN 26 10.937
JUL 26 10.951
AUG 26 11.006
SEP 26 11.089
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.295
DEC 25 11.450
JAN 26 11.690
FEB 26 11.640
MAR 26 11.360
APR 26 10.915
MAY 26 10.820
JUN 26 10.960
JUL 26 11.060
AUG 26 11.210
SEP 26 11.245
OCT 26 11.370

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.233
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 51
Last Updated: 2025-09-28 23:47:44

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.1

HEATING_OIL

0.0

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (3 articles)

Demand (6 articles)

Infrastructure (2 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.15
Closest Support: $3.13 0.63% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.24 2.86% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13 Support
0.618 $3.24 Resistance
0.786 $3.41
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.84
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-28 23:47:44
Next Trading Day: UP 0.64%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-27 $2.85 $2.71 $3.0
2025-09-28 $2.85 $2.7 $2.99
2025-09-29 $2.85 $2.7 $2.99
2025-09-30 $2.84 $2.7 $2.98
2025-10-01 $2.85 $2.7 $2.99

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.64% for the next trading day (2025-09-27), reaching $2.85.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-27 and 2025-10-01.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

The market is currently showing a neutral technical interpretation with a score of 0/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.13 and resistance at 3.24. With a ML price forecast indicating a potential increase of 0.64%, traders might look for short-term opportunities within the range of 2.71 to 3.0. However, the overall market sentiment is bullish, suggesting a cautious approach towards volatility given the convergence of cooling demand across all regions.

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For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance indicates a decrease of 2.90 BCFD with a ratio of 1.103, suggesting a tightening supply situation. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning in response to the market sentiment which is currently bullish. Additionally, with geopolitical tensions affecting crude prices and a mixed sentiment around supply and demand, hedging strategies may need to be revisited to mitigate potential risks from fluctuating prices.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the weather outlook indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, consumers can anticipate stable pricing in the short term. However, the bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas prices due to ample supplies and lackluster demand may lead to potential cost fluctuations. It is advisable for consumers to assess their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage any risks associated with supply reliability, particularly as the market adjusts to geopolitical developments.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market is currently influenced by a combination of factors leading to a mixed outlook. The overall market sentiment is bullish, yet the technical indicators remain neutral. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply, while weather forecasts indicate a cooling demand across regions, which could impact short-term price movements. Analysts should focus on the interplay between geopolitical risks and supply/demand dynamics, as these will be critical in shaping market shifts moving forward. The strategic focus should be on monitoring external factors that may influence price volatility in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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