Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-29 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/29/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
After the rollover, we are now in a wider range of 3.127 and 3.247 (we touched both on Friday). From Friday’s trading (and Sunday’s open) it looks likely that we may break below 3.127 and move down to 2.924 to complete the rollover gap - but one interesting thing this year - most of those gaps have not really been closed in short order. From a macro - we still have two gaps on the continuous chart: 3.449 and 2.449 - and Nat Gas has been teasing the closing of those gaps but kept us on edge with the $3 anchor. Fundamentally: production is stalling, canadian imports are dropping, demand has been higher than expected, and incremental lng is on its way - all this leads to a solid building. Fair value I think is 3.50….but Mr. Market does not care what I think is fair value…so this week - I will be watching the tropical system on the eastern shore - as that could knock out a lot of power demand (bearish). Technically I am watching 3.127 as the key bull/bear line If we break above 3.247 then we will be headed up to close the 3.449 gap.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-29 23:46:51 Length: 480 chars
Natural Gas is currently navigating a tight range between $3.127 and $3.247, with potential for a bearish move towards $2.924. Despite this, recent demand spikes and decreasing Canadian imports are lending support. Forecasts for hotter US temperatures have provided a temporary rally, yet a warm October start may temper enthusiasm. Watch for key levels: breaking above $3.247 could signal a move to close the $3.449 gap, while dipping below $3.127 might indicate further downs...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

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Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 106.7 107.0 101.2 100.37
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.53
Total Supply 111.7 111.8 107.2 105.97
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.73
Electric Power Demand 40.0 38.2 38.6 37.27
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.83
LNG Exports 16.3 16.2 12.9 12.5
Mexico Exports 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.13
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 101.3 98.5 95.4 93.1
Supply/Demand Balance 10.4 13.3 11.8 12.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.0, CDD: 7.2)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 4.8)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 7.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 10.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 9.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 73.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 4.0
Total HDD: 5.5
Total CDD: 40.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 10.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 148.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 9.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 114.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 5.5
Total HDD: 2.0
Total CDD: 37.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.94
Daily: -0.21 (-0.21%)
Weekly: 0.68 (0.7%)

US_10Y

4.14
Daily: -0.05 (-1.1%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.51%)

SP500

6661.21
Daily: 17.51 (0.26%)
Weekly: 4.29 (0.06%)

VIX

16.12
Daily: 0.83 (5.43%)
Weekly: -0.52 (-3.12%)

GOLD

3889.0
Daily: 113.7 (3.01%)
Weekly: 108.4 (2.87%)

COPPER

4.9
Daily: 0.18 (3.86%)
Weekly: 0.31 (6.83%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.130 EUR/MWh (+0.009). JKM prices increased to 11.295 USD/MMBtu (+0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.165 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.130

+0.009

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-29

JKM Prices

11.295

+0.015

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-29

JKM-TTF Spread

0.165

1.48%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-29

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.5
11.3
11.0
10.7
11.13
11.29
OCT 25
11.38
11.45
NOV 25
11.52
11.69
DEC 25
11.62
11.64
JAN 26
11.62
11.36
FEB 26
11.46
10.91
MAR 26
11.06
10.82
APR 26
10.91
10.96
MAY 26
10.94
11.06
JUN 26
10.95
11.21
JUL 26
11.01
11.24
AUG 26
11.09
11.37
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.130
NOV 25 11.375
DEC 25 11.515
JAN 26 11.618
FEB 26 11.625
MAR 26 11.464
APR 26 11.059
MAY 26 10.911
JUN 26 10.937
JUL 26 10.951
AUG 26 11.006
SEP 26 11.089
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.295
DEC 25 11.450
JAN 26 11.690
FEB 26 11.640
MAR 26 11.360
APR 26 10.915
MAY 26 10.820
JUN 26 10.960
JUL 26 11.060
AUG 26 11.210
SEP 26 11.245
OCT 26 11.370

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.0
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 50
Last Updated: 2025-09-29 23:47:47

Commodity Sentiment

HEATING_OIL

0.0

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.27
Closest Support: $3.18 2.75% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.28 0.31% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.79
0.236 $2.9
0.382 $2.98
0.5 $3.04
0.618 $3.09
0.786 $3.18 Support
1.0 $3.28 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.42
1.618 $3.59
2.0 $3.78
2.618 $4.08

ML Price Prediction

Error during prediction generation for summary.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions suggest neutral sentiment with an overall sentiment score of +0.000. The fundamental balance indicates a decline of -2.90 BCFD, suggesting a potential tightening in supply. Traders should be cautious of volatility due to mixed signals from geopolitical developments and weather impacts.

Cooling demand is expected to dominate across regions, with moderate cooling demand forecasted, particularly in the South with CDD: 10.5. This could present short-term opportunities for trading natural gas, especially if demand outpaces supply. Watch for support levels around recent lows for crude oil, as ongoing geopolitical risks may influence price fluctuations.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current fundamental balance indicates a slight contraction in supply, which may necessitate adjustments in production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.

With bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil due to reports of increased OPEC+ production, it is crucial for producers to remain agile. The neutral sentiment in natural gas suggests stable pricing, but producers should monitor demand closely, especially as cooling trends could lead to heightened consumption in certain regions.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices, particularly natural gas, as demand may rise due to moderate cooling demand. The current neutral sentiment in the market suggests that while prices may remain stable, unexpected shifts in supply could lead to sudden increases.

Given the fundamental balance showing a decrease in supply, procurement strategies should be revisited to ensure reliability. It may be prudent to explore hedging options to lock in current prices, especially as geopolitical factors could impact future supply stability.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market currently presents a neutral sentiment overall, with a sentiment score of +0.000. The fundamental balance reflects a decline in supply, which may drive prices upward if demand continues to rise, particularly in cooling-dominated regions.

Key drivers include the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil due to increased OPEC+ production forecasts. Analysts should closely monitor how geopolitical risks and weather patterns are influencing market dynamics, as these factors could shift sentiment and pricing outlooks significantly.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.