| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 107.0 | 101.2 | 100.37 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 5.53 |
| Total Supply | 111.7 | 111.8 | 107.2 | 105.97 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 22.1 | 21.8 | 21.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 40.0 | 38.2 | 38.6 | 37.27 |
| Residential & Commercial | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.83 |
| LNG Exports | 16.3 | 16.2 | 12.9 | 12.5 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.13 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.67 |
| Total Demand | 101.3 | 98.5 | 95.4 | 93.1 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 10.4 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 12.87 |
TTF prices increased to 11.130 EUR/MWh (+0.009). JKM prices increased to 11.295 USD/MMBtu (+0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.165 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: OCT 25
As of 2025-09-29
Front month: NOV 25
As of 2025-09-29
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-09-29
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| OCT 25 | 11.130 |
| NOV 25 | 11.375 |
| DEC 25 | 11.515 |
| JAN 26 | 11.618 |
| FEB 26 | 11.625 |
| MAR 26 | 11.464 |
| APR 26 | 11.059 |
| MAY 26 | 10.911 |
| JUN 26 | 10.937 |
| JUL 26 | 10.951 |
| AUG 26 | 11.006 |
| SEP 26 | 11.089 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| NOV 25 | 11.295 |
| DEC 25 | 11.450 |
| JAN 26 | 11.690 |
| FEB 26 | 11.640 |
| MAR 26 | 11.360 |
| APR 26 | 10.915 |
| MAY 26 | 10.820 |
| JUN 26 | 10.960 |
| JUL 26 | 11.060 |
| AUG 26 | 11.210 |
| SEP 26 | 11.245 |
| OCT 26 | 11.370 |
Current market conditions suggest neutral sentiment with an overall sentiment score of +0.000. The fundamental balance indicates a decline of -2.90 BCFD, suggesting a potential tightening in supply. Traders should be cautious of volatility due to mixed signals from geopolitical developments and weather impacts.
Cooling demand is expected to dominate across regions, with moderate cooling demand forecasted, particularly in the South with CDD: 10.5. This could present short-term opportunities for trading natural gas, especially if demand outpaces supply. Watch for support levels around recent lows for crude oil, as ongoing geopolitical risks may influence price fluctuations.
The current fundamental balance indicates a slight contraction in supply, which may necessitate adjustments in production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
With bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil due to reports of increased OPEC+ production, it is crucial for producers to remain agile. The neutral sentiment in natural gas suggests stable pricing, but producers should monitor demand closely, especially as cooling trends could lead to heightened consumption in certain regions.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices, particularly natural gas, as demand may rise due to moderate cooling demand. The current neutral sentiment in the market suggests that while prices may remain stable, unexpected shifts in supply could lead to sudden increases.
Given the fundamental balance showing a decrease in supply, procurement strategies should be revisited to ensure reliability. It may be prudent to explore hedging options to lock in current prices, especially as geopolitical factors could impact future supply stability.
The energy market currently presents a neutral sentiment overall, with a sentiment score of +0.000. The fundamental balance reflects a decline in supply, which may drive prices upward if demand continues to rise, particularly in cooling-dominated regions.
Key drivers include the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil due to increased OPEC+ production forecasts. Analysts should closely monitor how geopolitical risks and weather patterns are influencing market dynamics, as these factors could shift sentiment and pricing outlooks significantly.