Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-30 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/30/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
If you really want to understand how dysfunctional and crazy Nat Gas markets are - I literally saw two headlines back to back: Nat Gas up as long range cold forecasts push them up and Nat Gas jumps because of hot temps. What is very clear is that most writers on NG don’t really know what is happening (well if I’m honest sometimes I don’t either). That said - here’s what we know - fundamentals have bullish support and do not lend themselves to drop back below $3, technicals look like we are poised to “finally” close that gap at 3.449-3.52. That is the next target - unless of course the bears start coming back out to play because remember 2.449 has a gap too (along with 2.76) - but right now - all eyes are on 3.247 that is the line in the sand!

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-30 23:46:50 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas markets are currently riding a rollercoaster of conflicting forecasts, with prices reacting to both expected cold weather and reports of warmer temperatures. Despite this volatility, fundamentals suggest strong support above $3, while technicals indicate a potential target of $3.449-$3.52. The line in the sand remains at $3.247. Interestingly, while prices hover at a 10-week high, the European market is stabilizing, presenting an intriguing contrast. Keep an ey...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.34
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.97

MA(20): $3.01

Current Price is 3.34, 9 day MA 2.97, 20 day MA 3.01

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0253

Signal: -0.009

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 65.39

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 65.39 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,840

Avg (20d): 143,709

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 98.26

%D: 69.37

Stochastic %K: 98.26, %D: 69.37. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.7

+DI: 31.45

-DI: 18.06

ADX: 15.7 (+DI: 31.45, -DI: 18.06). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -1.74

Williams %R: -1.74 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 3.29

Middle: 3.01

Lower: 2.74

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 3.29, Middle: 3.01, Lower: 2.74

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 106.7 107.0 101.2 100.37
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.53
Total Supply 111.7 111.8 107.2 105.97
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.73
Electric Power Demand 40.0 38.2 38.6 37.27
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.83
LNG Exports 16.3 16.2 12.9 12.5
Mexico Exports 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.13
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 101.3 98.5 95.4 93.1
Supply/Demand Balance 10.4 13.3 11.8 12.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.1, CDD: 7.4)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 7.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 0.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 10.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 11.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 0.5
Total CDD: 68.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 8.5
Total HDD: 6.5
Total CDD: 50.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 10.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 133.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 11.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 114.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.0
Total HDD: 2.0
Total CDD: 38.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.84
Daily: -0.07 (-0.07%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.03%)

US_10Y

4.15
Daily: 0.01 (0.17%)
Weekly: 0.0 (0.02%)

SP500

6688.46
Daily: 27.25 (0.41%)
Weekly: 50.49 (0.76%)

VIX

16.28
Daily: 0.16 (0.99%)
Weekly: 0.1 (0.62%)

GOLD

3887.1
Daily: 66.2 (1.73%)
Weekly: 155.0 (4.15%)

COPPER

4.84
Daily: -0.0 (-0.05%)
Weekly: 0.09 (1.81%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 11.122 EUR/MWh (-0.008). JKM prices decreased to 11.200 USD/MMBtu (-0.095). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.078 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.122

-0.008

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-30

JKM Prices

11.200

-0.095

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-30

JKM-TTF Spread

0.078

0.70%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-30

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.6
11.4
11.1
10.9
10.6
11.12
11.20
OCT 25
11.21
11.31
NOV 25
11.37
11.55
DEC 25
11.46
11.52
JAN 26
11.48
11.24
FEB 26
11.33
10.78
MAR 26
10.94
10.69
APR 26
10.80
10.82
MAY 26
10.82
10.96
JUN 26
10.84
11.13
JUL 26
10.90
11.16
AUG 26
10.98
11.30
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.122
NOV 25 11.214
DEC 25 11.368
JAN 26 11.465
FEB 26 11.482
MAR 26 11.329
APR 26 10.937
MAY 26 10.800
JUN 26 10.818
JUL 26 10.835
AUG 26 10.896
SEP 26 10.979
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.200
DEC 25 11.310
JAN 26 11.550
FEB 26 11.520
MAR 26 11.245
APR 26 10.775
MAY 26 10.690
JUN 26 10.820
JUL 26 10.965
AUG 26 11.130
SEP 26 11.165
OCT 26 11.305

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.05
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 44
Last Updated: 2025-09-30 23:47:46

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.34
Closest Support: $3.24 2.99% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.41 2.1% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13
0.618 $3.24 Support
0.786 $3.41 Resistance
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.3
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-30 23:47:47
Next Trading Day: UP 0.09%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-01 $3.31 $3.1 $3.51
2025-10-02 $3.32 $3.11 $3.53
2025-10-03 $3.34 $3.13 $3.54
2025-10-04 $3.29 $3.09 $3.5
2025-10-05 $3.3 $3.09 $3.5

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-10-01), reaching $3.31.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-01 and 2025-10-05.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions present a neutral outlook, with technical indicators scoring 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.24 and resistance at 3.41. Traders should be cautious as the fundamental balance is at 10.40 BCFD with a change of -2.90, indicating potential volatility. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.09%, with a range of 3.1 to 3.51. Short-term opportunities may arise from the current cooling demand in the South and West regions.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should note the neutral overall market sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.075. The news surrounding OPEC+ output hikes and oversupply fears presents challenges for pricing strategies. The hedging strategies may need to be adjusted given the fundamental balance shift. Monitoring the weather outlook for cooling demand in various regions can inform production planning and optimize resource allocation.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains neutral and the fundamental balance indicates a decline. With a cooling demand forecast, particularly in the South and West, procurement strategies should consider short-term price movements, especially with the ML price forecast suggesting a slight uptick. It's advisable to monitor supply reliability as news sentiment around crude oil remains bearish, which could impact overall energy prices.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market presents a neutral outlook with significant bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil, indicated by a score of -0.750. The fundamental balance at 10.40 BCFD suggests a tightening supply scenario, while the weather outlook indicates increased cooling demand across multiple regions. Analysts should focus on these driving factors to identify potential shifts in market dynamics, particularly as the ML price forecast indicates a slight upward trend, suggesting possible bullish movements in the near term.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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