Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-01 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/01/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
So we laid out 3.449 as the gap fill on Monday as a possibility, Tuesday after the break above 3.247 identified a high likelihood of the 3.449 gap fill, and Wednesday we reached the target - wow that was pretty quick! Now I am looking at two levels: 3.599 as the next target and 3.247 as the downside target if 3.50 is not held…after reaching the gap fill - the stall out could be a sign of exhaustion after the short covering rally (at least that’s what folks are saying - we won’t know for sure until the COT report comes out). Fundamentally - 3.247 and higher is validated by the current supply/demand and while I am still sitting at 3.8 TCF storage there are some analysts that I respect that are calling for 4.0 TCF which would give credence to another move down below $3 again. For now - I think we are in a large range of 3.247 to 3.5999

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-01 23:46:58 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices have surged recently, driven by a short-covering rally and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the U.S. After hitting the gap fill target of 3.449, traders are now eyeing 3.599 as the next resistance level, with 3.247 as the downside support. Current storage sits around 3.8 TCF, though some analysts predict it could reach 4.0 TCF, potentially leading to further price declines. Keep an eye on weather forecasts and the COT report for clues on future ...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.44
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $3.02

MA(20): $3.03

Current Price is 3.44, 9 day MA 3.02, 20 day MA 3.03

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0543

Signal: 0.0032

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 68.38

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 68.38 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 4,004

Avg (20d): 142,491

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 96.94

%D: 94.19

Stochastic %K: 96.94, %D: 94.19. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.06

+DI: 33.99

-DI: 16.56

ADX: 17.06 (+DI: 33.99, -DI: 16.56). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -3.06

Williams %R: -3.06 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 3.35

Middle: 3.03

Lower: 2.7

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 3.35, Middle: 3.03, Lower: 2.7

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 106.7 107.0 101.2 100.37
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.53
Total Supply 111.7 111.8 107.2 105.97
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.73
Electric Power Demand 40.0 38.2 38.6 37.27
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.83
LNG Exports 16.3 16.2 12.9 12.5
Mexico Exports 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.13
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 101.3 98.5 95.4 93.1
Supply/Demand Balance 10.4 13.3 11.8 12.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 1.7, CDD: 6.7)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 2.5)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 8.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 12.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 16.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 8.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 8.5
Total CDD: 56.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 2.0
Total HDD: 3.0
Total CDD: 47.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 12.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 145.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 16.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 116.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 3.0
Total HDD: 0.5
Total CDD: 45.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.72
Daily: -0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly: -0.83 (-0.84%)

US_10Y

4.11
Daily: -0.04 (-1.01%)
Weekly: -0.07 (-1.58%)

SP500

6711.2
Daily: 22.74 (0.34%)
Weekly: 106.48 (1.61%)

VIX

16.29
Daily: 0.01 (0.06%)
Weekly: -0.45 (-2.69%)

GOLD

3889.3
Daily: 48.5 (1.26%)
Weekly: 152.4 (4.08%)

COPPER

4.9
Daily: 0.1 (2.0%)
Weekly: 0.2 (4.28%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices remained stable to 11.122 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 11.050 USD/MMBtu (-0.150). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.072 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.122

+0.000

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-10-01

JKM Prices

11.050

-0.150

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-01

JKM-TTF Spread

-0.072

-0.65%

JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-01

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.2
11.0
10.8
10.6
10.4
11.12
11.05
OCT 25
10.82
10.91
NOV 25
11.00
11.15
DEC 25
11.11
11.13
JAN 26
11.13
10.87
FEB 26
11.00
10.48
MAR 26
10.65
10.44
APR 26
10.54
10.54
MAY 26
10.56
10.69
JUN 26
10.58
10.85
JUL 26
10.64
10.89
AUG 26
10.74
11.05
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.122
NOV 25 10.817
DEC 25 11.000
JAN 26 11.108
FEB 26 11.134
MAR 26 10.997
APR 26 10.654
MAY 26 10.539
JUN 26 10.561
JUL 26 10.583
AUG 26 10.640
SEP 26 10.737
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.050
DEC 25 10.910
JAN 26 11.150
FEB 26 11.135
MAR 26 10.865
APR 26 10.485
MAY 26 10.440
JUN 26 10.535
JUL 26 10.685
AUG 26 10.845
SEP 26 10.890
OCT 26 11.055

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.075
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 66
Last Updated: 2025-10-01 23:47:54

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

CRUDE_OIL

-0.75

Top News Topics

Supply (10 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Weather (3 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.44
Closest Support: $3.41 0.87% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.63 5.52% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13
0.618 $3.24
0.786 $3.41 Support
1.0 $3.63 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.48
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-01 23:47:55
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.12%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-02 $3.47 $3.26 $3.69
2025-10-03 $3.5 $3.28 $3.71
2025-10-04 $3.46 $3.25 $3.67
2025-10-05 $3.46 $3.25 $3.68
2025-10-06 $3.45 $3.23 $3.66

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.12% for the next trading day (2025-10-02), reaching $3.47.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-02 and 2025-10-06.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current technical interpretation is neutral, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. Traders should monitor the Fibonacci support level at 3.41 and resistance at 3.63 as potential pivot points for price action.

The ML price forecast suggests a slight downward movement of 0.12%, with a projected range between 3.26 and 3.69.

Given the neutral sentiment and moderate cooling demand, traders should remain cautious of potential volatility but be prepared for short-term opportunities if prices approach the support or resistance levels.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance stands at 10.40 BCFD, with a change of -2.90. This indicates a tightening supply scenario that may impact production planning. Producers should assess their hedging strategies in light of the current market sentiment, which is overall neutral but leans bearish for crude oil due to oversupply concerns.

The mixed weather outlook, particularly the cooling dominated regions, suggests a need for flexibility in production levels to meet fluctuating demand, especially in the South and West.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the overall market sentiment being neutral, consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations due to the current fundamental balance of 10.40 BCFD.

The expected low heating demand and moderate cooling demand may lead to stable supply conditions, but consumers should remain vigilant of any supply reliability risks, particularly during peak demand periods in the cooling-dominated regions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market currently displays a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of 10.40 BCFD, indicating a slight contraction in supply. The cooling demand is expected to dominate across multiple regions, which could influence short-term price movements.

The bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil, driven by oversupply concerns, contrasts with the more stable sentiment for natural gas. Analysts should focus on these divergent trends as they may indicate potential outlook shifts in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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