Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-03 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/03/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
So we laid out 3.449 as the gap fill on Monday as a possibility, Tuesday after the break above 3.247 identified a high likelihood of the 3.449 gap fill, and Wednesday we reached the target - wow that was pretty quick! Now I am looking at two levels: 3.599 as the next target and 3.247 as the downside target if 3.50 is not held…after reaching the gap fill - the stall out could be a sign of exhaustion after the short covering rally (at least that’s what folks are saying - we won’t know for sure until the COT report comes out). Fundamentally - 3.247 and higher is validated by the current supply/demand and while I am still sitting at 3.8 TCF storage there are some analysts that I respect that are calling for 4.0 TCF which would give credence to another move down below $3 again. For now - I think we are in a large range of 3.247 to 3.5999

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-03 23:46:38 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices have experienced recent volatility, hitting a gap fill at $3.449 before facing upward resistance around $3.599. Mild weather in mid-October and high supply have weighed on prices, while a storage level around 3.8 TCF raises concerns about a potential drop below $3. As traders eye the range between $3.247 and $3.599, the sentiment remains cautious. Look for upcoming COT reports for clarity, as analysts debate if supply pressures could push prices even low...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.9 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.34
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.14

MA(20): $3.06

Current Price is 3.34, 9 day MA 3.14, 20 day MA 3.06

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0904

Signal: 0.0335

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 61.42

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 61.42 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 203,638

Avg (20d): 162,634

Ratio: 1.25

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 69.37

%D: 83.19

Stochastic %K: 69.37, %D: 83.19. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.73

+DI: 33.92

-DI: 18.29

ADX: 19.73 (+DI: 33.92, -DI: 18.29). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -30.63

Williams %R: -30.63 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.46

Middle: 3.06

Lower: 2.66

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.46, Middle: 3.06, Lower: 2.66

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.8 106.7 101.2 100.53
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.0 5.0 5.9 5.6
Total Supply 110.8 111.7 107.2 106.23
Industrial Demand 22.0 22.1 21.8 21.83
Electric Power Demand 37.0 40.0 40.3 36.5
Residential & Commercial 11.5 8.8 8.9 10.13
LNG Exports 15.8 16.3 12.6 12.0
Mexico Exports 6.8 7.2 7.0 6.37
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 99.9 101.3 97.2 93.53
Supply/Demand Balance 10.9 10.4 10.0 12.7

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 3.5, CDD: 6.4)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 5.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 6.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 10.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 21.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 6.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 22.5
Total CDD: 35.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 6.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 18.0
Total CDD: 42.5

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 10.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 145.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 21.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 129.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 5.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 14.5
Total CDD: 34.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.71
Daily: -0.14 (-0.14%)
Weekly: -0.2 (-0.2%)

US_10Y

4.12
Daily: 0.03 (0.76%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.53%)

SP500

6715.79
Daily: 0.44 (0.01%)
Weekly: 54.58 (0.82%)

VIX

16.65
Daily: 0.02 (0.12%)
Weekly: 0.53 (3.29%)

GOLD

3912.1
Daily: 72.4 (1.89%)
Weekly: 91.2 (2.39%)

COPPER

5.09
Daily: 0.19 (3.82%)
Weekly: 0.24 (5.04%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.798 EUR/MWh (+0.011). JKM prices decreased to 11.025 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.227 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.798

+0.011

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-03

JKM Prices

11.025

-0.020

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-03

JKM-TTF Spread

0.227

2.10%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-03

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.2
11.0
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.80
11.03
NOV 25
10.97
10.87
DEC 25
11.08
11.12
JAN 26
11.11
11.07
FEB 26
10.97
10.80
MAR 26
10.64
10.44
APR 26
10.51
10.38
MAY 26
10.53
10.49
JUN 26
10.56
10.66
JUL 26
10.61
10.81
AUG 26
10.70
10.86
SEP 26
10.78
10.90
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.798
DEC 25 10.970
JAN 26 11.078
FEB 26 11.107
MAR 26 10.968
APR 26 10.639
MAY 26 10.506
JUN 26 10.527
JUL 26 10.564
AUG 26 10.611
SEP 26 10.703
OCT 26 10.779
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.025
DEC 25 10.865
JAN 26 11.120
FEB 26 11.070
MAR 26 10.800
APR 26 10.435
MAY 26 10.380
JUN 26 10.495
JUL 26 10.665
AUG 26 10.810
SEP 26 10.855
OCT 26 10.905

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.3
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 76
Last Updated: 2025-10-03 23:47:30

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

NATURAL_GAS

0.1

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Weather (3 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.34
Closest Support: $3.24 2.99% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.41 2.1% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13
0.618 $3.24 Support
0.786 $3.41 Resistance
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.44
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-03 23:47:31
Next Trading Day: UP 0.79%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-03 $3.47 $3.26 $3.68
2025-10-04 $3.43 $3.22 $3.64
2025-10-05 $3.44 $3.23 $3.64
2025-10-06 $3.42 $3.21 $3.63
2025-10-07 $3.42 $3.21 $3.63

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.79% for the next trading day (2025-10-03), reaching $3.47.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.4% between 2025-10-03 and 2025-10-07.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market sentiment is neutral, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.24 and resistance at 3.41, which suggests traders should monitor these levels closely for potential reversals. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.79%, with a range between 3.26 and 3.68. This could present short-term trading opportunities, but traders should remain alert to volatility driven by supply/demand dynamics and weather impacts.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a fundamental balance of 10.90 BCFD and an increase of 0.50, production planning should take into account the current oversupply concerns reflected in negative news sentiment. The neutral market sentiment may limit immediate price recovery, suggesting that hedging strategies could be essential to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. Producers should also consider regional demand variations, particularly the cooling trends in the South and West, which may influence gas demand differently across regions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations given the current neutral sentiment and moderate cooling demand forecasts. The expected low heating demand in the residential and commercial sectors could lead to stable pricing in the short term. However, the weather outlook indicates a mix of heating and cooling demands regionally, which may create supply reliability risks. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies that account for these variances, particularly in light of the fundamental balance and potential market shifts.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market presents a neutral outlook with technical indicators showing a support level at 3.24 and resistance at 3.41. The fundamental balance suggests a slight oversupply, which could exert downward pressure on prices. The mixed sentiment regarding supply and demand, particularly the bearish outlook for crude oil and more favorable sentiment for natural gas, indicates that analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and weather forecasts as potential driving factors for price shifts.

Disclaimer: This response is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved