Natural Gas is in a weird spot (well isn’t it always?) - after rolling over to the November contract we continued straight up to close the gap at 3.449. This only leaves an upside gap close to $5 - will we see that closed this winter??? What I am watching now are two gaps down below: 2.762 and 2.449 - the question is will those get closed before winter? If not - could they be relics of the past? Fundamentals are really in a supportive area - we stand 6% above the 5 year average on storage - I am honestly a bit worried that we will not have enough even if we top out storage at 4 TCF (my number remains at 3.85 TCF). Supply is virtually stalled, Canadian imports are down, LNG is set to rise above record levels in Q4, and weather analysts are calling for a volatile winter - translation - there could be ZERO Polar Vortexes, 5, or somewhere in between. That said - I do not want to enter the winter short! But be ready - we will have more occurrences of LNG not being able to leave and all of a sudden 2-5 BCF gets thrust back into the grid - we are talking negative prices. When we say volatility in Nat Gas - we have to realize it isn’t the historical upside volatility - it cuts both ways. The range to watch is 3.247 and 3.599 - yes that is wide - but both of those open doors to larger directional moves - as it looks today I think centering around 3.449 sets up the bull move up to 3.599 - opening the door to $4.