Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-09 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/09/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas is in a weird spot (well isn’t it always?) - after rolling over to the November contract we continued straight up to close the gap at 3.449. This only leaves an upside gap close to $5 - will we see that closed this winter??? What I am watching now are two gaps down below: 2.762 and 2.449 - the question is will those get closed before winter? If not - could they be relics of the past? Fundamentals are really in a supportive area - we stand 6% above the 5 year average on storage - I am honestly a bit worried that we will not have enough even if we top out storage at 4 TCF (my number remains at 3.85 TCF). Supply is virtually stalled, Canadian imports are down, LNG is set to rise above record levels in Q4, and weather analysts are calling for a volatile winter - translation - there could be ZERO Polar Vortexes, 5, or somewhere in between. That said - I do not want to enter the winter short! But be ready - we will have more occurrences of LNG not being able to leave and all of a sudden 2-5 BCF gets thrust back into the grid - we are talking negative prices. When we say volatility in Nat Gas - we have to realize it isn’t the historical upside volatility - it cuts both ways. 3.247 is the bull/bear line

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-09 23:46:40 Length: 480 chars
Natural Gas is navigating a peculiar landscape. After a recent surge to close the gap at $3.449, traders are speculating if it will reach $5 this winter. Currently, storage is 6% above the five-year average, but concerns linger about whether it will suffice, especially with forecasts of a volatile winter. Supply is stagnating, LNG imports are up, and weather patterns could swing wildly. Key levels to watch are 2.762 and 2.449 for potential downturns, while 3.247 serves as ...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.9 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.24
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.36

MA(20): $3.13

Current Price is 3.24, 9 day MA 3.36, 20 day MA 3.13

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.1029

Signal: 0.0769

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 53.83

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 53.83 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,481

Avg (20d): 157,693

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 57.81

%D: 72.04

Stochastic %K: 57.81, %D: 72.04. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 21.94

+DI: 27.37

-DI: 18.63

ADX: 21.94 (+DI: 27.37, -DI: 18.63). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -42.19

Williams %R: -42.19 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.59

Middle: 3.13

Lower: 2.66

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.59, Middle: 3.13, Lower: 2.66

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.8 106.7 101.2 100.53
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.0 5.0 5.9 5.6
Total Supply 110.8 111.7 107.2 106.23
Industrial Demand 22.0 22.1 21.8 21.83
Electric Power Demand 37.0 40.0 40.3 36.5
Residential & Commercial 11.5 8.8 8.9 10.13
LNG Exports 15.8 16.3 12.6 12.0
Mexico Exports 6.8 7.2 7.0 6.37
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 99.9 101.3 97.2 93.53
Supply/Demand Balance 10.9 10.4 10.0 12.7

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 6.0, CDD: 2.7)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 11.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 7.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 5.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 8.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 7.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 42.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 10.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 51.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 5.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 118.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 8.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 90.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 45.5
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.33
Daily: 0.48 (0.48%)
Weekly: 1.61 (1.64%)

US_10Y

4.15
Daily: 0.02 (0.46%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.7%)

SP500

6735.11
Daily: -18.61 (-0.28%)
Weekly: 19.32 (0.29%)

VIX

16.43
Daily: 0.13 (0.8%)
Weekly: -0.22 (-1.32%)

GOLD

3984.3
Daily: -59.0 (-1.46%)
Weekly: 103.5 (2.67%)

COPPER

5.1
Daily: 0.05 (1.09%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.85%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 11.099 EUR/MWh (-0.169). JKM prices decreased to 11.115 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.016 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.099

-0.169

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-09

JKM Prices

11.115

-0.020

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-09

JKM-TTF Spread

0.016

0.14%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-09

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.6
11.3
11.1
10.8
10.6
11.10
11.12
NOV 25
11.26
11.32
DEC 25
11.34
11.50
JAN 26
11.36
11.47
FEB 26
11.22
11.19
MAR 26
10.81
10.73
APR 26
10.66
10.66
MAY 26
10.66
10.73
JUN 26
10.69
10.91
JUL 26
10.74
10.98
AUG 26
10.82
11.09
SEP 26
10.90
11.08
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 11.099
DEC 25 11.260
JAN 26 11.344
FEB 26 11.363
MAR 26 11.219
APR 26 10.812
MAY 26 10.664
JUN 26 10.658
JUL 26 10.691
AUG 26 10.743
SEP 26 10.821
OCT 26 10.898
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.115
DEC 25 11.325
JAN 26 11.500
FEB 26 11.475
MAR 26 11.185
APR 26 10.735
MAY 26 10.660
JUN 26 10.730
JUL 26 10.915
AUG 26 10.980
SEP 26 11.090
OCT 26 11.080

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 91
Last Updated: 2025-10-09 23:47:38

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

-0.4

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (14 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Weather (4 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.24
Closest Support: $3.13 3.4% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.24 0.0% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13 Support
0.618 $3.24 Current Price
0.786 $3.41
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.27
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-09 23:47:38
Next Trading Day: UP 0.67%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-10 $3.29 $3.07 $3.52
2025-10-11 $3.28 $3.06 $3.5
2025-10-12 $3.26 $3.04 $3.49
2025-10-13 $3.28 $3.05 $3.5
2025-10-14 $3.28 $3.06 $3.51

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.67% for the next trading day (2025-10-10), reaching $3.29.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-10 and 2025-10-14.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~13.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.400, indicating a generally negative outlook among market participants. Despite this, the ML price forecast suggests a potential short-term price increase of 0.67%, with a predicted range of 3.07 to 3.52. Traders should monitor the Fibonacci support level at 3.13 and resistance at 3.24 for potential breakout opportunities. Given the neutral technical interpretation (score: 1/5), volatility may remain limited, but the overall bearish sentiment could present risks for short positions.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance shows a slight increase to 10.90 BCFD, which may indicate a stable supply environment. However, the bearish sentiment in the market, particularly regarding demand, could affect pricing strategies. Producers should consider implementing hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with the current market sentiment. The ongoing moderate heating demand in residential and commercial sectors suggests a need for careful production planning to meet seasonal demands.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the bearish sentiment affecting energy prices. The moderate heating demand forecast indicates that heating costs may rise, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions. It's advisable to review procurement strategies and consider hedging options to lock in favorable rates amid potential supply reliability risks.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market currently reflects a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.400, driven largely by demand concerns. The fundamental balance is slightly positive, but the overall market dynamics are influenced by negative news sentiment regarding oil and gas. Analysts should closely monitor the interplay between weather forecasts and ML price predictions to identify shifts in market conditions. The potential for a short-term price increase may provide opportunities for strategic positioning as market sentiment evolves.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved