Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-10 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/10/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas broke the key level of 3.247 - everything points down to 2.924 as the next target which is a logical step in setting up the stage for a volatile winter. The Gaza deal is giving Nat Gas momentum for a risk-off trade for Friday - which broke down below the last line of support for this recent bull move at 3.247. Technically all signs point down. Fundamentals have tightened up quite a bit and look to be tight until late October - this could squeeze storage to a level that gets traders nervous for the winter (which they should be). This winter is not El Nino or La Nina - meaning that we are set to have either zero polar vortexes or five??? It means we will need to be ready for anything - of course we are - we follow Nat Gas!!! LOL!! But that may be ahead of where we are - 3.8 if my EOS number - most analysts are 3.9+ (including Bill - so maybe I’m wrong). Most are going to be watching storage as the barometer for the rest of the month. I’m watching the fundamentals (which are tight right now and bullish) and technicals (which are bearish right now). 3.127 is the last line of hope for bulls - if that breaks 2.92 will be in the cards…if that holds - bulls have the chance to recapture 3.247 and then go back up to 3.449 again. It looks like we are going to drop down further and then re-set for the winter.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-10 23:46:50 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices have recently broken below the key support level of 3.247, with the next target set at 2.924. While fundamentals are tightening, indicating potential supply concerns as winter approaches, technical indicators are bearish. Warmer U.S. weather and ample storage have contributed to a decline, but with unpredictable winter weather patterns on the horizon, traders should stay vigilant. Keep an eye on storage levels and the critical support at 3.127; a break c...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 5.1 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.13
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.35

MA(20): $3.14

Current Price is 3.13, 9 day MA 3.35, 20 day MA 3.14

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.087

Signal: 0.0792

Days since crossover: 10

MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 49.28

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 49.28 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 170,627

Avg (20d): 168,032

Ratio: 1.02

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 44.4

%D: 58.18

Stochastic %K: 44.4, %D: 58.18. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 20.65

+DI: 24.63

-DI: 22.92

ADX: 20.65 (+DI: 24.63, -DI: 22.92). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -55.6

Williams %R: -55.6 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.59

Middle: 3.14

Lower: 2.68

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.59, Middle: 3.14, Lower: 2.68

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.2 105.8 101.7 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.9 5.0 5.7 5.63
Total Supply 110.1 110.8 107.4 106.63
Industrial Demand 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.17
Electric Power Demand 35.0 37.0 38.6 35.13
Residential & Commercial 19.0 11.5 9.4 10.9
LNG Exports 16.0 15.8 12.4 12.07
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.8 6.7 6.37
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 105.0 99.9 95.9 93.33
Supply/Demand Balance 5.1 10.9 11.5 13.3

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 7.3, CDD: 4.3)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 13.0)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 10.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 7.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 14.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 10.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 46.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 13.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 78.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 116.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 14.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 84.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 66.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.85
Daily: -0.69 (-0.69%)
Weekly: 0.74 (0.76%)

US_10Y

4.05
Daily: -0.1 (-2.34%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.67%)

SP500

6552.51
Daily: -182.6 (-2.71%)
Weekly: -187.77 (-2.79%)

VIX

21.66
Daily: 5.23 (31.83%)
Weekly: 5.29 (32.32%)

GOLD

4035.5
Daily: 89.2 (2.26%)
Weekly: 87.0 (2.2%)

COPPER

4.84
Daily: -0.23 (-4.54%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-2.85%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.993 EUR/MWh (-0.106). JKM prices decreased to 11.080 USD/MMBtu (-0.035). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.087 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.993

-0.106

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-10

JKM Prices

11.080

-0.035

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-10

JKM-TTF Spread

0.087

0.79%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-10

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.4
11.1
10.9
10.6
10.3
10.99
11.08
NOV 25
11.11
11.10
DEC 25
11.21
11.29
JAN 26
11.22
11.24
FEB 26
11.08
10.96
MAR 26
10.67
10.50
APR 26
10.53
10.43
MAY 26
10.53
10.51
JUN 26
10.56
10.71
JUL 26
10.61
10.85
AUG 26
10.70
10.89
SEP 26
10.78
10.90
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.993
DEC 25 11.112
JAN 26 11.206
FEB 26 11.222
MAR 26 11.077
APR 26 10.672
MAY 26 10.531
JUN 26 10.530
JUL 26 10.559
AUG 26 10.613
SEP 26 10.697
OCT 26 10.775
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.080
DEC 25 11.100
JAN 26 11.295
FEB 26 11.240
MAR 26 10.955
APR 26 10.500
MAY 26 10.430
JUN 26 10.505
JUL 26 10.705
AUG 26 10.845
SEP 26 10.890
OCT 26 10.905

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 93
Last Updated: 2025-10-10 23:47:42

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

-0.7

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.13
Closest Support: $3.12 0.32% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.24 3.51% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.12 Support
0.618 $3.24 Resistance
0.786 $3.41
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.63
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.27
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-10 23:47:43
Next Trading Day: UP 0.67%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-10 $3.29 $3.07 $3.52
2025-10-11 $3.28 $3.06 $3.5
2025-10-12 $3.26 $3.04 $3.49
2025-10-13 $3.28 $3.05 $3.5
2025-10-14 $3.28 $3.06 $3.51

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.67% for the next trading day (2025-10-10), reaching $3.29.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-10 and 2025-10-14.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~13.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market data indicates a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. Traders should be aware of Fibonacci support at 3.12 and resistance at 3.24. The ML price forecast suggests a potential increase of 0.67%, with a range between 3.07 and 3.52. Given the bearish overall market sentiment and a significant change in fundamental balance (down 5.80 BCFD), traders may want to consider short-term volatility and potential risks around these levels.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current fundamental balance is at 5.10 BCFD, indicating a slight oversupply. Producers should evaluate their hedging strategies in light of the bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas, with a sentiment score of -0.700. The moderate heating demand forecast suggests a need for careful production planning, especially in regions with high heating degree days (HDD). Producers should also monitor geopolitical risks and supply disruptions that could impact crude oil prices.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the current market conditions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The moderate heating demand suggests stable supply, but the bearish sentiment in natural gas could lead to price declines, as indicated by a sentiment score of -0.700. Consumers should consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and ensure reliable supply amid changing demand patterns.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market is currently characterized by a bearish overall sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.675. The fundamental balance reflects a slight oversupply, while the weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand across key regions. Analysts should focus on the divergence between ML price forecasts indicating a potential uptick and the prevailing bearish sentiment, as this could signal a shift in market dynamics. Close attention to geopolitical developments and supply disruptions is also warranted as they can significantly influence market conditions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.