Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-12 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/12/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas broke the key level of 3.247 - everything points down to 2.924 as the next target which is a logical step in setting up the stage for a volatile winter. The Gaza deal is giving Nat Gas momentum for a risk-off trade for Friday - which broke down below the last line of support for this recent bull move at 3.247. Technically all signs point down. Fundamentals have tightened up quite a bit and look to be tight until late October - this could squeeze storage to a level that gets traders nervous for the winter (which they should be). This winter is not El Nino or La Nina - meaning that we are set to have either zero polar vortexes or five??? It means we will need to be ready for anything - of course we are - we follow Nat Gas!!! LOL!! But that may be ahead of where we are - 3.8 if my EOS number - most analysts are 3.9+ (including Bill - so maybe I’m wrong). Most are going to be watching storage as the barometer for the rest of the month. I’m watching the fundamentals (which are tight right now and bullish) and technicals (which are bearish right now). 3.127 is the last line of hope for bulls - if that breaks 2.92 will be in the cards…if that holds - bulls have the chance to recapture 3.247 and then go back up to 3.449 again. It looks like we are going to drop down further and then re-set for the winter.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-12 23:47:07 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices have recently dipped below the critical support level of 3.247, with a bearish target of 2.924 looming. A warmer weather outlook and ample storage are contributing to this decline, despite tightening fundamentals. The upcoming winter could be volatile, with uncertainty around polar vortex occurrences. Traders are closely monitoring storage levels as a key indicator, with a last hope support at 3.127. A break here could accelerate the slide toward 2.924, ...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 5.1 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.13
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.33

MA(20): $3.14

Current Price is 3.13, 9 day MA 3.33, 20 day MA 3.14

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.0699

Signal: 0.077

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 49.19

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 49.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,242

Avg (20d): 162,111

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 42.66

%D: 48.29

Stochastic %K: 42.66, %D: 48.29. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.37

+DI: 23.99

-DI: 22.73

ADX: 19.37 (+DI: 23.99, -DI: 22.73). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -57.34

Williams %R: -57.34 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.6

Middle: 3.14

Lower: 2.68

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.6, Middle: 3.14, Lower: 2.68

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.2 105.8 101.7 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.9 5.0 5.7 5.63
Total Supply 110.1 110.8 107.4 106.63
Industrial Demand 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.17
Electric Power Demand 35.0 37.0 38.6 35.13
Residential & Commercial 19.0 11.5 9.4 10.9
LNG Exports 16.0 15.8 12.4 12.07
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.8 6.7 6.37
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 105.0 99.9 95.9 93.33
Supply/Demand Balance 5.1 10.9 11.5 13.3

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 4.9, CDD: 3.9)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 6.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 11.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 10.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 9.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 11.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 24.0
Total CDD: 6.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 8.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 57.5
Total CDD: 1.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 10.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 125.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 9.0
Total HDD: 2.5
Total CDD: 69.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 5.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 40.0
Total CDD: 1.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.94
Daily: -0.04 (-0.04%)
Weekly: 0.36 (0.37%)

US_10Y

4.05
Daily: -0.1 (-2.34%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.67%)

SP500

6552.51
Daily: -182.6 (-2.71%)
Weekly: -187.77 (-2.79%)

VIX

21.66
Daily: 5.23 (31.83%)
Weekly: 5.29 (32.32%)

GOLD

4072.4
Daily: 96.5 (2.43%)
Weekly: 95.8 (2.41%)

COPPER

5.03
Daily: 0.18 (3.67%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.43%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.950 EUR/MWh (-0.043). JKM prices decreased to 11.060 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.110 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.950

-0.043

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-12

JKM Prices

11.060

-0.020

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-12

JKM-TTF Spread

0.110

1.00%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-12

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.1
10.8
10.6
10.3
10.95
11.06
NOV 25
11.06
11.03
DEC 25
11.16
11.23
JAN 26
11.19
11.20
FEB 26
11.03
10.89
MAR 26
10.63
10.46
APR 26
10.49
10.39
MAY 26
10.48
10.47
JUN 26
10.51
10.65
JUL 26
10.57
10.79
AUG 26
10.65
10.85
SEP 26
10.72
10.87
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.950
DEC 25 11.061
JAN 26 11.163
FEB 26 11.189
MAR 26 11.033
APR 26 10.628
MAY 26 10.487
JUN 26 10.481
JUL 26 10.511
AUG 26 10.566
SEP 26 10.647
OCT 26 10.725
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.060
DEC 25 11.030
JAN 26 11.230
FEB 26 11.195
MAR 26 10.890
APR 26 10.455
MAY 26 10.390
JUN 26 10.470
JUL 26 10.655
AUG 26 10.795
SEP 26 10.845
OCT 26 10.865

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.675
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 54
Last Updated: 2025-10-12 23:48:01

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

NATURAL_GAS

-0.75

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.13
Closest Support: $3.1 0.96% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.22 2.88% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99
0.5 $3.1 Support
0.618 $3.22 Resistance
0.786 $3.38
1.0 $3.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.11
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-12 23:48:02
Next Trading Day: UP 0.34%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-11 $3.12 $2.88 $3.35
2025-10-12 $3.09 $2.86 $3.33
2025-10-13 $3.1 $2.87 $3.34
2025-10-14 $3.1 $2.87 $3.34
2025-10-15 $3.12 $2.89 $3.35

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.34% for the next trading day (2025-10-11), reaching $3.12.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-11 and 2025-10-15.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions indicate a bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. Traders should be cautious as the price is currently facing support at 3.1 and resistance at 3.22. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.34%, but overall market sentiment remains negative. This could present short-term risks for volatility, especially if prices approach resistance levels.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the fundamental balance showing a decrease to 5.10 BCFD, producers may need to reassess their production levels and hedging strategies. The bearish market sentiment, particularly for natural gas at -0.700, suggests potential challenges in maintaining profitability. Producers should closely monitor supply disruptions and adjust operations accordingly to mitigate risks from the current market conditions.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the overall bearish market sentiment. The low heating demand reflected in the weather outlook indicates that procurement strategies may need to adapt to changing conditions. With natural gas prices expected to remain under pressure, it may be prudent for consumers to consider hedging options to secure more favorable pricing in the near term.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently skewed towards a bearish outlook, driven by low demand and a fundamental balance shift. The predominant heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest contrasts with cooling demand in the South and West, indicating regional disparities. The increased volatility indicated by the technical score and the ML price forecast suggests potential shifts in market dynamics that analysts should monitor closely for emerging opportunities or threats.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.