Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-13 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/13/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas forecasts are bearish - yet we are still set for potential upside volatility this winter - forecasts have led to a likelihood of volatility - that doesn’t mean that we will have a ton of polar vortexes and it also doesn’t mean we will have NO polar vortexes - it means the jet stream will allow as many or as few polar vortexes as the weather patterns allow - translation - it could be FIVE or it could be ZERO. Let’s just say, I would not want to enter the winter short - as this could be set up for upside volatility. This week is all about 3.127 - if the bulls recapture that level AND 3.247 then we could see a potential uptrend re-emerge…but as it stands right now - we are likely headed down to “fill the gap” from the rollover at 2.924. Tuesday’s trading will set the stage for the rest of the week.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-13 23:46:50 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices are facing bearish forecasts, yet potential upside volatility this winter looms. Current weather patterns suggest uncertain polar vortex activity; we could see anywhere from zero to five this season. This week, the critical level to watch is 3.127; if bulls reclaim this, it may signal a shift toward an uptrend. However, if momentum falters, prices may drop to fill the gap at 2.924. With forecasts turning colder, keep an eye on weather dynamics as they co...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 5.1 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.1
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.32

MA(20): $3.14

Current Price is 3.1, 9 day MA 3.32, 20 day MA 3.14

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.0674

Signal: 0.0765

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.94

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.94 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,110

Avg (20d): 161,738

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 38.77

%D: 46.99

Stochastic %K: 38.77, %D: 46.99. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.39

+DI: 24.37

-DI: 22.95

ADX: 19.39 (+DI: 24.37, -DI: 22.95). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -61.23

Williams %R: -61.23 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.59

Middle: 3.14

Lower: 2.68

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.59, Middle: 3.14, Lower: 2.68

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.2 105.8 101.7 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.9 5.0 5.7 5.63
Total Supply 110.1 110.8 107.4 106.63
Industrial Demand 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.17
Electric Power Demand 35.0 37.0 38.6 35.13
Residential & Commercial 19.0 11.5 9.4 10.9
LNG Exports 16.0 15.8 12.4 12.07
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.8 6.7 6.37
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 105.0 99.9 95.9 93.33
Supply/Demand Balance 5.1 10.9 11.5 13.3

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 5.7, CDD: 1.6)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 8.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 12.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 5.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 3.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 42.5
Total CDD: 5.0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 8.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 47.5
Total CDD: 2.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 5.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 112.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 3.0
Total HDD: 1.5
Total CDD: 63.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 8.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 39.5
Total CDD: 3.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.22
Daily: 0.24 (0.24%)
Weekly: 0.64 (0.65%)

US_10Y

4.05
Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-1.84%)

SP500

6654.72
Daily: 102.21 (1.56%)
Weekly: -59.87 (-0.89%)

VIX

19.03
Daily: -2.63 (-12.14%)
Weekly: 1.79 (10.38%)

GOLD

4173.1
Daily: 197.2 (4.96%)
Weekly: 196.5 (4.94%)

COPPER

5.14
Daily: 0.29 (6.01%)
Weekly: 0.09 (1.82%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.950 EUR/MWh (-0.043). JKM prices decreased to 11.060 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.110 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.950

-0.043

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-13

JKM Prices

11.060

-0.020

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-13

JKM-TTF Spread

0.110

1.00%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-13

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.1
10.8
10.6
10.3
10.95
11.06
NOV 25
11.06
11.03
DEC 25
11.16
11.23
JAN 26
11.19
11.20
FEB 26
11.03
10.89
MAR 26
10.63
10.46
APR 26
10.49
10.39
MAY 26
10.48
10.47
JUN 26
10.51
10.65
JUL 26
10.57
10.79
AUG 26
10.65
10.85
SEP 26
10.72
10.87
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.950
DEC 25 11.061
JAN 26 11.163
FEB 26 11.189
MAR 26 11.033
APR 26 10.628
MAY 26 10.487
JUN 26 10.481
JUL 26 10.511
AUG 26 10.566
SEP 26 10.647
OCT 26 10.725
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.060
DEC 25 11.030
JAN 26 11.230
FEB 26 11.195
MAR 26 10.890
APR 26 10.455
MAY 26 10.390
JUN 26 10.470
JUL 26 10.655
AUG 26 10.795
SEP 26 10.845
OCT 26 10.865

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.3
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 53
Last Updated: 2025-10-13 23:47:45

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

NATURAL_GAS

0.0

Top News Topics

Demand (1 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.1
Closest Support: $2.99 3.55% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.1 0.0% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99 Support
0.5 $3.1 Current Price
0.618 $3.22
0.786 $3.38
1.0 $3.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.12
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-13 23:47:45
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.77%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-14 $3.09 $2.86 $3.33
2025-10-15 $3.1 $2.87 $3.34
2025-10-16 $3.11 $2.87 $3.34
2025-10-17 $3.12 $2.89 $3.35
2025-10-18 $3.12 $2.88 $3.35

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.77% for the next trading day (2025-10-14), reaching $3.09.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-14 and 2025-10-18.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

The current market outlook appears bearish with a technical score of -2/5. Key support is identified at 2.99 and resistance at 3.1. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 0.77%, with a range between 2.86 and 3.33. Traders should be cautious of volatility, particularly as the overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.325.

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For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a fundamental balance of 5.10 BCFD indicating a slight decrease of -5.80, producers should reassess production levels in light of current demand trends. The bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for crude oil, suggests a need for cautious hedging strategies. The news regarding ample storage and warmer weather may further impact natural gas prices, potentially affecting revenue forecasts.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

The current weather outlook indicates a predominance of heating demand (HDD: 5.7), which may lead to increased costs for consumers in colder regions. However, the overall bearish sentiment and declining price forecasts suggest potential opportunities for cost savings in procurement strategies. Consumers should remain vigilant regarding supply reliability, especially with the fluctuating demand patterns across regions.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently influenced by several bearish factors, including a technical outlook of -2/5 and a sentiment score of -0.325. The fundamental balance reflects a slight tightening in supply-demand dynamics, while the weather outlook leans towards increased heating demand. Analysts should monitor the interplay between weather patterns and price movements closely, as shifts in sentiment and forecasts can lead to significant market changes.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific guidance.

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