Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-24 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/24/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas shifted off 3.50 as we projected and went to our key support area of 3.247 but closed the week at the next resistance level 3.342. As we mentioned before 2.92 was “too low” but 3.50 felt “too high” - bullish signs are pulling the November contract to the $4 December contract (plus storage puts a little bit of fear into traders). We are exiting the storage season with less than many analysts projected. The winter is expected to bring nothing but volatility - but rest assured - if we have a strong winter - $4 and $5 are likely in the cards. 3.247 to 3.449 is going to be the wider range for this next week (rolling over to December) - so I see next week as a move up on November and down on December - with a convergence at 3.679 once the rollover has taken place.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-24 23:47:04 Length: 481 chars
Natural Gas has recently shifted from the $3.50 mark, finding key support at $3.247 and closing the week at $3.342. With ample inventories reported and a forecasted volatile winter, traders are cautiously optimistic. While current storage levels are higher than expected, which typically dampens prices, a strong winter could push prices to the $4-$5 range. Watch for fluctuations between $3.247 and $3.449 as we approach December contracts—it's a rollercoaster ride, so buckle up!

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.34
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $3.22

MA(20): $3.27

Current Price is 3.34, 9 day MA 3.22, 20 day MA 3.27

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0684

Signal: 0.0532

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 55.89

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 55.89 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 102,175

Avg (20d): 189,436

Ratio: 0.54

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 65.39

%D: 71.28

Stochastic %K: 65.39, %D: 71.28. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.46

+DI: 28.31

-DI: 22.42

ADX: 18.46 (+DI: 28.31, -DI: 22.42). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -34.61

Williams %R: -34.61 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.62

Middle: 3.27

Lower: 2.93

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.62, Middle: 3.27, Lower: 2.93

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.3 104.6 101.5 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17
Canadian Imports 5.7 5.6 6.4 5.8
Total Supply 111.0 110.2 108.0 106.87
Industrial Demand 23.4 23.4 22.9 23.03
Electric Power Demand 32.3 31.7 34.2 32.37
Residential & Commercial 18.0 20.4 16.0 17.6
LNG Exports 16.7 16.9 13.7 13.13
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.1
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 103.6 105.6 99.7 99.0
Supply/Demand Balance 7.4 4.6 8.3 7.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 9.1, CDD: 3.1)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 12.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 13.5)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 7.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 15.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 13.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 98.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 103.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 7.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 11.5
Total CDD: 52.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 15.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 119.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 92.5
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.94
Daily: -0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly: 0.35 (0.35%)

US_10Y

4.0
Daily: 0.01 (0.15%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.28%)

SP500

6791.69
Daily: 53.25 (0.79%)
Weekly: 56.56 (0.84%)

VIX

16.37
Daily: -0.93 (-5.38%)
Weekly: -1.86 (-10.2%)

GOLD

4126.9
Daily: 1.4 (0.03%)
Weekly: -209.5 (-4.83%)

COPPER

5.12
Daily: 0.04 (0.7%)
Weekly: 0.12 (2.39%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.963 EUR/MWh (+0.062). JKM prices increased to 11.265 USD/MMBtu (+0.110). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.302 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.963

+0.062

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-24

JKM Prices

11.265

+0.110

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-10-24

JKM-TTF Spread

0.302

2.75%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-24

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.4
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.3
10.96
11.27
NOV 25
11.15
11.36
DEC 25
11.23
11.27
JAN 26
11.27
10.95
FEB 26
11.13
10.46
MAR 26
10.70
10.43
APR 26
10.56
10.54
MAY 26
10.55
10.70
JUN 26
10.58
10.83
JUL 26
10.64
10.88
AUG 26
10.72
10.91
SEP 26
10.80
11.14
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.963
DEC 25 11.153
JAN 26 11.229
FEB 26 11.267
MAR 26 11.134
APR 26 10.703
MAY 26 10.563
JUN 26 10.552
JUL 26 10.583
AUG 26 10.642
SEP 26 10.725
OCT 26 10.805
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.265
JAN 26 11.355
FEB 26 11.270
MAR 26 10.945
APR 26 10.455
MAY 26 10.425
JUN 26 10.545
JUL 26 10.695
AUG 26 10.830
SEP 26 10.885
OCT 26 10.915
NOV 26 11.145

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.05
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 90
Last Updated: 2025-10-24 23:47:56

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

-0.6

CRUDE_OIL

0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (3 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (15 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.34
Closest Support: $3.22 3.59% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.38 1.2% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99
0.5 $3.1
0.618 $3.22 Support
0.786 $3.38 Resistance
1.0 $3.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.34
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-24 23:47:57
Next Trading Day: UP 0.4%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-24 $3.36 $3.08 $3.63
2025-10-25 $3.32 $3.04 $3.6
2025-10-26 $3.31 $3.04 $3.59
2025-10-27 $3.31 $3.04 $3.59
2025-10-28 $3.32 $3.05 $3.6

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.40% for the next trading day (2025-10-24), reaching $3.36.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.2% between 2025-10-24 and 2025-10-28.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market data indicates a neutral technical outlook with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci levels show support at 3.22 and resistance at 3.38, suggesting potential price fluctuations within this range.

The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.40%, with a projected range of 3.08 to 3.63, presenting short-term trading opportunities. However, the fundamental balance of 7.40 BCFD with a change of +2.80 could lead to increased volatility.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance indicates an increase in demand, which could support production planning. The neutral sentiment surrounding natural gas (-0.600) suggests caution in hedging strategies.

Producers should be aware of the weather outlook, which shows moderate heating demand across all regions, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, where heating degree days (HDD) are high (12.2 and 13.5 respectively). This could affect production schedules and inventory levels.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should brace for potential cost fluctuations as the market shows a neutral sentiment. The expected moderate heating demand suggests that supply reliability may be stable, but vigilance is required due to potential price volatility indicated by the ML forecast.

With the fundamental balance at 7.40 BCFD, procurement strategies should account for possible upward price movements, particularly as winter approaches and heating demand increases.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently influenced by a mix of neutral sentiment and fundamental balance changes indicating a slight increase in demand. The weather outlook suggests a strong heating demand across regions, which could drive prices higher.

Analysts should monitor the risks associated with geopolitical factors affecting crude oil prices, as well as the bearish sentiment for natural gas. Overall, the market appears cautiously optimistic, but significant volatility could arise from supply adjustments and weather impacts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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