Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-29 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/29/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Now that we’re trading December - we’ve dropped right to the levels we expected - 4.08 down to 3.788 (with 3.75 as the touch point). A move to 3.679 would not surprise me here….but there could be some movement tomorrow as storage will come out and put us just shy of 3.9 TCF (through the 24th of the month - leaving 7 days until EOS). I expect us to end up around 3.93 (so Bill gets the “closest to the pin” as my number was 3.85 and his was 3.95). 3.75 is the near term support to watch - and the bulls will need to push above 3.87 to actually regain potential for 4.00. If we don’t have decent weather - a move all the way to 3.525 could be in order…but as we are approaching winter - fundamentally we should center around 3.75 and key in on weather.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-29 23:46:51 Length: 473 chars
Natural gas prices have experienced fluctuations as we transition into December trading. Currently, prices hover around 4.08 to 3.788, with a near-term support at 3.75. Upcoming storage reports are anticipated to show levels just shy of 3.9 TCF. While warmer weather forecasts may pressure prices, a solid winter demand could stabilize them. Watch for a bullish push above 3.87 to regain traction towards 4.00, but be prepared for potential dips to 3.525 if demand falters.

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.34
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.34

MA(20): $3.28

Current Price is 3.34, 9 day MA 3.34, 20 day MA 3.28

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0712

Signal: 0.0626

Days since crossover: 7

MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 54.5

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 54.5 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 4,239

Avg (20d): 169,102

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 65.24

%D: 70.89

Stochastic %K: 65.24, %D: 70.89. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.49

+DI: 24.29

-DI: 19.92

ADX: 17.49 (+DI: 24.29, -DI: 19.92). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -34.76

Williams %R: -34.76 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.62

Middle: 3.28

Lower: 2.93

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.62, Middle: 3.28, Lower: 2.93

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.3 104.6 101.5 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17
Canadian Imports 5.7 5.6 6.4 5.8
Total Supply 111.0 110.2 108.0 106.87
Industrial Demand 23.4 23.4 22.9 23.03
Electric Power Demand 32.3 31.7 34.2 32.37
Residential & Commercial 18.0 20.4 16.0 17.6
LNG Exports 16.7 16.9 13.7 13.13
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.1
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 103.6 105.6 99.7 99.0
Supply/Demand Balance 7.4 4.6 8.3 7.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 9.7, CDD: 2.3)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 15.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 11.0)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 6.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 11.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 11.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 113.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 17.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 99.0
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 6.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 26.5
Total CDD: 3.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 11.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 111.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 14.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 82.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.13
Daily: 0.44 (0.44%)
Weekly: 0.19 (0.19%)

US_10Y

4.06
Daily: 0.08 (1.88%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.68%)

SP500

6890.59
Daily: -0.3 (-0.0%)
Weekly: 152.15 (2.26%)

VIX

16.92
Daily: 0.5 (3.05%)
Weekly: -0.38 (-2.2%)

GOLD

3947.9
Daily: -18.3 (-0.46%)
Weekly: -177.6 (-4.3%)

COPPER

5.21
Daily: 0.07 (1.3%)
Weekly: 0.13 (2.47%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.905 EUR/MWh (+0.007). JKM prices increased to 11.150 USD/MMBtu (+0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.245 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.905

+0.007

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-29

JKM Prices

11.150

+0.030

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-10-29

JKM-TTF Spread

0.245

2.25%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-29

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.2
11.0
10.7
10.4
10.1
10.90
11.15
NOV 25
10.87
11.07
DEC 25
10.94
11.02
JAN 26
10.96
10.68
FEB 26
10.83
10.21
MAR 26
10.43
10.20
APR 26
10.30
10.32
MAY 26
10.30
10.45
JUN 26
10.32
10.59
JUL 26
10.38
10.65
AUG 26
10.47
10.71
SEP 26
10.58
10.96
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.905
DEC 25 10.871
JAN 26 10.935
FEB 26 10.963
MAR 26 10.829
APR 26 10.425
MAY 26 10.301
JUN 26 10.305
JUL 26 10.323
AUG 26 10.384
SEP 26 10.473
OCT 26 10.584
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.150
JAN 26 11.075
FEB 26 11.015
MAR 26 10.675
APR 26 10.210
MAY 26 10.195
JUN 26 10.325
JUL 26 10.445
AUG 26 10.585
SEP 26 10.650
OCT 26 10.705
NOV 26 10.955

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 70
Last Updated: 2025-10-29 23:47:46

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.34
Closest Support: $3.22 3.59% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.38 1.2% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99
0.5 $3.1
0.618 $3.22 Support
0.786 $3.38 Resistance
1.0 $3.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.35
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-29 23:47:46
Next Trading Day: UP 0.36%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-29 $3.36 $3.08 $3.64
2025-10-30 $3.36 $3.08 $3.65
2025-10-31 $3.37 $3.09 $3.65
2025-11-01 $3.36 $3.07 $3.64
2025-11-02 $3.36 $3.08 $3.65

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.36% for the next trading day (2025-10-29), reaching $3.36.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-29 and 2025-11-02.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.22 and resistance at 3.38. The fundamental balance shows a slight increase, indicating potential for upward price movement. The ML price forecast suggests a minor increase of 0.36%, with a predicted range of 3.08 to 3.64. Traders should watch for volatility around these levels, particularly given the overall bullish market sentiment.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance indicates a robust supply of 7.40 BCFD, with a positive change of +2.80. Producers should consider this when planning production levels. The bearish sentiment in supply-related news could pose challenges, especially with rising supply risks highlighted in recent articles. Hedging strategies may need to be adjusted to account for potential price fluctuations driven by geopolitical factors and changing demand patterns.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With expected moderate heating demand and low cooling demand, consumers can anticipate stable supply conditions. However, the bearish sentiment in supply news may indicate potential supply reliability risks. It is advisable for industrial and utility consumers to closely monitor price fluctuations, especially given the potential for increased costs in the upcoming seasons. Consideration for procurement strategies or hedging against price spikes may be prudent.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market landscape presents a bullish sentiment overall, despite some bearish undercurrents in supply and geopolitical news. The fundamental balance remains positive, supporting a potential upward trend in prices. Analysts should focus on the implications of weather patterns and supply risks as key drivers of market movements, particularly as heating demand is projected to dominate across regions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Consult with a financial advisor for specific recommendations.

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