Natural Gas Radar

2025-11-02 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/02/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Now that we’re trading December - we’ve dropped right to the levels we expected - 4.08 down to 3.788 (with 3.75 as the touch point). A move to 3.679 would not surprise me here….but there could be some movement tomorrow as storage will come out and put us just shy of 3.9 TCF (through the 24th of the month - leaving 7 days until EOS). I expect us to end up around 3.93 (so Bill gets the “closest to the pin” as my number was 3.85 and his was 3.95). We have extended up on ironically bearish fundamentals - production is up, November weather is bearish, and LNG is up but not nearly enough (YET!!). We ended the week above $4 (and there are still some gaps way above like at 4.75….but those won’t really enter the equation until later in the winter.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-02 23:46:53 Length: 487 chars
Natural gas is experiencing volatility, currently trading between $4.08 and $3.788, with a potential dip to $3.679. Despite bearish fundamentals—rising production and mild November weather—prices have been buoyed by strong LNG demand and an outlook for colder temperatures this winter. The storage report nearing 3.9 TCF may influence market sentiment. As we approach the end of the season, keep an eye on price gaps above $4.75, which could become significant if winter demand ramps up.

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $4.1
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.6

MA(20): $3.38

Current Price is 4.1, 9 day MA 3.6, 20 day MA 3.38

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.2021

Signal: 0.1152

Days since crossover: 10

MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 72.06

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 72.06 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 9,701

Avg (20d): 165,075

Ratio: 0.06

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 92.35

%D: 93.33

Stochastic %K: 92.35, %D: 93.33. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 23.47

+DI: 40.62

-DI: 13.81

ADX: 23.47 (+DI: 40.62, -DI: 13.81). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -7.65

Williams %R: -7.65 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 4.04

Middle: 3.38

Lower: 2.72

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 4.04, Middle: 3.38, Lower: 2.72

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.1 104.6 101.5 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17
Canadian Imports 5.7 5.6 6.4 5.8
Total Supply 110.8 110.2 108.0 106.87
Industrial Demand 23.9 23.4 22.9 23.03
Electric Power Demand 34.0 31.7 34.2 32.37
Residential & Commercial 19.3 20.4 16.0 17.6
LNG Exports 17.0 16.9 13.7 13.13
Mexico Exports 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 107.5 105.6 99.7 99.0
Supply/Demand Balance 3.3 4.6 8.3 7.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 14.5, CDD: 2.3)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 17.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 29.5)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 8.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 11.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 29.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 137.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 19.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 101.0
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 8.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 9.0
Total CDD: 45.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 11.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 87.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 15.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 81.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.75
Daily: -0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly: 1.06 (1.07%)

US_10Y

4.1
Daily: 0.01 (0.2%)
Weekly: 0.1 (2.6%)

SP500

6840.2
Daily: 17.86 (0.26%)
Weekly: -34.96 (-0.51%)

VIX

17.44
Daily: 0.53 (3.13%)
Weekly: 1.65 (10.45%)

GOLD

4014.0
Daily: 31.8 (0.8%)
Weekly: 47.8 (1.21%)

COPPER

5.09
Daily: 0.02 (0.45%)
Weekly: -0.05 (-1.01%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices remained stable to 10.900 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 11.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.130). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.100 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.900

+0.000

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-11-02

JKM Prices

11.000

-0.130

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-02

JKM-TTF Spread

0.100

0.92%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-11-02

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.1
10.8
10.5
10.2
9.9
10.90
11.00
NOV 25
10.53
10.95
DEC 25
10.63
10.84
JAN 26
10.67
10.53
FEB 26
10.56
10.04
MAR 26
10.20
10.01
APR 26
10.09
10.16
MAY 26
10.11
10.29
JUN 26
10.13
10.45
JUL 26
10.19
10.49
AUG 26
10.28
10.49
SEP 26
10.38
10.73
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.900
DEC 25 10.527
JAN 26 10.632
FEB 26 10.672
MAR 26 10.562
APR 26 10.199
MAY 26 10.086
JUN 26 10.108
JUL 26 10.133
AUG 26 10.191
SEP 26 10.276
OCT 26 10.376
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.000
JAN 26 10.950
FEB 26 10.835
MAR 26 10.530
APR 26 10.035
MAY 26 10.005
JUN 26 10.165
JUL 26 10.290
AUG 26 10.445
SEP 26 10.490
OCT 26 10.495
NOV 26 10.735

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.15
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 52
Last Updated: 2025-11-02 23:47:48

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

NATURAL_GAS

0.7

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.1
Closest Support: $3.86 5.85% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.2 2.44% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.99
0.382 $3.22
0.5 $3.41
0.618 $3.6
0.786 $3.86 Support
1.0 $4.2 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.63
1.618 $5.18
2.0 $5.78
2.618 $6.75

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.12
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-02 23:47:49
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.56%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-01 $4.1 $3.76 $4.44
2025-11-02 $4.13 $3.79 $4.47
2025-11-03 $4.14 $3.8 $4.48
2025-11-04 $4.09 $3.75 $4.44
2025-11-05 $4.09 $3.74 $4.43

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.56% for the next trading day (2025-11-01), reaching $4.10.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-01 and 2025-11-05.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions are showing a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.86 and resistance at 4.2. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.56%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities for traders to capitalize on volatility within the range of 3.76 to 4.44.

With a fundamental balance of 3.30 BCFD and a change of -4.10, traders should monitor any shifts in supply and demand dynamics closely. The overall market sentiment is also neutral, indicating that traders should remain cautious and look for further confirmation before making significant moves.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market sentiment reflects a mixed outlook, with a positive sentiment for natural gas at +0.700 and a negative sentiment for crude oil at -0.400. This divergence suggests that producers should consider adjusting their production plans accordingly, focusing on hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating oil prices.

Additionally, with the heating demand forecasted to dominate across regions, producers should optimize their output to align with the expected increase in demand for natural gas during the colder months.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

The heating demand outlook is moderate, with significant heating degree days (HDD) expected across all regions, particularly in the Midwest with 29.5 HDD. This may lead to potential cost fluctuations as demand rises. Consumers should prepare for potential supply reliability risks, especially if the weather forecasts shift towards colder conditions.

Given the current market sentiment and the price forecast indicating a potential decline, it may be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies that take advantage of lower prices while ensuring adequate supply during peak demand periods.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market is currently characterized by a neutral technical outlook and a mixed sentiment landscape. The fundamental balance indicates a slight oversupply, with a ratio of 1.031 suggesting a need for careful monitoring of supply/demand dynamics.

The weather outlook, which favors heating demand, combined with the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil, points to a complex interplay of factors that could shift market dynamics. Analysts should focus on the implications of the ML price forecasts and news sentiment to gauge potential market movements and provide actionable insights for stakeholders.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.