MA(9): $3.72
MA(20): $3.43
MACD: 0.2535
Signal: 0.1449
Days since crossover: 11
Value: 75.84
Category: OVERBOUGHT
Current: 3,665
Avg (20d): 155,131
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 99.09
%D: 98.07
ADX: 25.77
+DI: 42.62
-DI: 13.09
Value: -0.91
Upper: 4.24
Middle: 3.43
Lower: 2.62
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.1 | 104.6 | 101.5 | 100.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.17 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.7 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 5.8 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 110.2 | 108.0 | 106.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.9 | 23.4 | 22.9 | 23.03 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.0 | 31.7 | 34.2 | 32.37 |
| Residential & Commercial | 19.3 | 20.4 | 16.0 | 17.6 |
| LNG Exports | 17.0 | 16.9 | 13.7 | 13.13 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.1 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 107.5 | 105.6 | 99.7 | 99.0 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.3 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 7.87 |
TTF prices remained stable to 10.900 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 11.150 USD/MMBtu (+0.150). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.250 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: NOV 25
As of 2025-11-04
Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-04
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-04
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| NOV 25 | 10.900 |
| DEC 25 | 10.711 |
| JAN 26 | 10.824 |
| FEB 26 | 10.843 |
| MAR 26 | 10.726 |
| APR 26 | 10.340 |
| MAY 26 | 10.232 |
| JUN 26 | 10.248 |
| JUL 26 | 10.271 |
| AUG 26 | 10.329 |
| SEP 26 | 10.408 |
| OCT 26 | 10.489 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 11.150 |
| JAN 26 | 11.170 |
| FEB 26 | 11.030 |
| MAR 26 | 10.690 |
| APR 26 | 10.190 |
| MAY 26 | 10.160 |
| JUN 26 | 10.305 |
| JUL 26 | 10.410 |
| AUG 26 | 10.580 |
| SEP 26 | 10.580 |
| OCT 26 | 10.625 |
| NOV 26 | 10.870 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-05 | $4.36 | $4.01 | $4.7 |
| 2025-11-06 | $4.32 | $3.98 | $4.66 |
| 2025-11-07 | $4.32 | $3.97 | $4.66 |
| 2025-11-08 | $4.31 | $3.96 | $4.65 |
| 2025-11-09 | $4.3 | $3.96 | $4.64 |
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.96 while resistance is at 4.33. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential price action.
With a bullish overall market sentiment score of +0.700 and a slight increase forecasted by ML predictions of UP (0.28%), traders may find short-term opportunities around the predicted range of 4.01 to 4.7. However, the risk of volatility remains due to fluctuating supply and demand dynamics.
The current fundamental balance stands at 3.30 BCFD with a change of -4.10, indicating a slight tightening in supply. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and hedging strategies.
Given the bullish sentiment for natural gas at +0.800, there may be favorable conditions for sales. However, the risk from fluctuating oil prices, as indicated by recent headlines about OPEC+ production policies, should also be factored into operational strategies.
With high heating demand expected due to the weather outlook showing significant heating degree days (HDD) across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. The Northeast and Midwest are particularly impacted with HDD values of 25.2 and 24.0, respectively.
While the overall market sentiment remains positive, consumers should remain vigilant about supply reliability risks, especially as low cooling demand is anticipated. This could influence procurement strategies moving forward.
The market is currently experiencing a convergence of factors that lean towards a bullish outlook, primarily driven by strong demand for heating and a supportive sentiment score of +0.700. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply scenario which may further bolster prices.
However, analysts should keep an eye on geopolitical developments and OPEC+ production strategies that could introduce volatility into the market. The mixed sentiment around supply and weather impacts will be critical in determining future price movements.