Natural Gas Radar

2025-11-04 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/04/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Now that we’re trading December - we’ve dropped right to the levels we expected - 4.08 down to 3.788 (with 3.75 as the touch point). A move to 3.679 would not surprise me here….but there could be some movement tomorrow as storage will come out and put us just shy of 3.9 TCF (through the 24th of the month - leaving 7 days until EOS). I expect us to end up around 3.93 (so Bill gets the “closest to the pin” as my number was 3.85 and his was 3.95). We have extended up on ironically bearish fundamentals - production is up, November weather is bearish, and LNG is up but not nearly enough (YET!!). The move since last Thursday took us from below 3.87 to over 4.26 - massive move up - yes there is some cold coming in the forecast but I think this is more about some short covering before winter truly sets in. 3.965 is likely on the radar this week - there are some gaps at 5.50 ant 3.449 - I think we’ll see a drop to 3.965 before deciding what to do next. But this week we are still defying gravity so far….4.174 is the support with 4.394 as the resistance.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-04 23:46:55 Length: 560 chars
Natural gas prices have surged, recently reaching over a 7-month high, largely influenced by expectations of colder US weather. Despite bearish fundamentals, including increased production and mild November forecasts, the market has seen a significant rally, attributed to short covering ahead of winter. Currently, prices hover between $4.08 and $4.26, with key resistance at $4.394 and support at $4.174. Traders should keep an eye on storage updates, which could provide further insights into market direction as we approach the end of the injection season.

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $4.31
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.72

MA(20): $3.43

Current Price is 4.31, 9 day MA 3.72, 20 day MA 3.43

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.2535

Signal: 0.1449

Days since crossover: 11

MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 75.84

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 75.84 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,665

Avg (20d): 155,131

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 99.09

%D: 98.07

Stochastic %K: 99.09, %D: 98.07. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 25.77

+DI: 42.62

-DI: 13.09

ADX: 25.77 (+DI: 42.62, -DI: 13.09). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -0.91

Williams %R: -0.91 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 4.24

Middle: 3.43

Lower: 2.62

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 4.24, Middle: 3.43, Lower: 2.62

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.1 104.6 101.5 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17
Canadian Imports 5.7 5.6 6.4 5.8
Total Supply 110.8 110.2 108.0 106.87
Industrial Demand 23.9 23.4 22.9 23.03
Electric Power Demand 34.0 31.7 34.2 32.37
Residential & Commercial 19.3 20.4 16.0 17.6
LNG Exports 17.0 16.9 13.7 13.13
Mexico Exports 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 107.5 105.6 99.7 99.0
Supply/Demand Balance 3.3 4.6 8.3 7.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 17.7, CDD: 1.6)
Residential/Commercial: HIGH heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 25.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 24.0)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 14.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 8.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 24.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 163.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 26.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 122.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 14.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 36.0
Total CDD: 38.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 8.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 87.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 24.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 100.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.14
Daily: 0.27 (0.27%)
Weekly: 0.92 (0.93%)

US_10Y

4.09
Daily: -0.02 (-0.41%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.76%)

SP500

6771.55
Daily: -80.42 (-1.17%)
Weekly: -119.04 (-1.73%)

VIX

19.0
Daily: 1.83 (10.66%)
Weekly: 2.08 (12.29%)

GOLD

3978.2
Daily: -22.1 (-0.55%)
Weekly: -5.5 (-0.14%)

COPPER

4.96
Daily: -0.09 (-1.78%)
Weekly: -0.28 (-5.28%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices remained stable to 10.900 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 11.150 USD/MMBtu (+0.150). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.250 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.900

+0.000

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-11-04

JKM Prices

11.150

+0.150

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-04

JKM-TTF Spread

0.250

2.29%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-11-04

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.0
10.7
10.4
10.1
10.90
11.15
NOV 25
10.71
11.17
DEC 25
10.82
11.03
JAN 26
10.84
10.69
FEB 26
10.73
10.19
MAR 26
10.34
10.16
APR 26
10.23
10.30
MAY 26
10.25
10.41
JUN 26
10.27
10.58
JUL 26
10.33
10.58
AUG 26
10.41
10.62
SEP 26
10.49
10.87
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.900
DEC 25 10.711
JAN 26 10.824
FEB 26 10.843
MAR 26 10.726
APR 26 10.340
MAY 26 10.232
JUN 26 10.248
JUL 26 10.271
AUG 26 10.329
SEP 26 10.408
OCT 26 10.489
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.150
JAN 26 11.170
FEB 26 11.030
MAR 26 10.690
APR 26 10.190
MAY 26 10.160
JUN 26 10.305
JUL 26 10.410
AUG 26 10.580
SEP 26 10.580
OCT 26 10.625
NOV 26 10.870

News & Sentiment Analysis

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.31
Closest Support: $3.96 8.12% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.33 0.46% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $3.02
0.382 $3.27
0.5 $3.47
0.618 $3.68
0.786 $3.96 Support
1.0 $4.33 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.79
1.618 $5.38
2.0 $6.03
2.618 $7.08

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.34
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-04 23:47:48
Next Trading Day: UP 0.28%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-05 $4.36 $4.01 $4.7
2025-11-06 $4.32 $3.98 $4.66
2025-11-07 $4.32 $3.97 $4.66
2025-11-08 $4.31 $3.96 $4.65
2025-11-09 $4.3 $3.96 $4.64

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.28% for the next trading day (2025-11-05), reaching $4.36.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.4% between 2025-11-05 and 2025-11-09.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.96 while resistance is at 4.33. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential price action.

With a bullish overall market sentiment score of +0.700 and a slight increase forecasted by ML predictions of UP (0.28%), traders may find short-term opportunities around the predicted range of 4.01 to 4.7. However, the risk of volatility remains due to fluctuating supply and demand dynamics.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current fundamental balance stands at 3.30 BCFD with a change of -4.10, indicating a slight tightening in supply. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and hedging strategies.

Given the bullish sentiment for natural gas at +0.800, there may be favorable conditions for sales. However, the risk from fluctuating oil prices, as indicated by recent headlines about OPEC+ production policies, should also be factored into operational strategies.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With high heating demand expected due to the weather outlook showing significant heating degree days (HDD) across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. The Northeast and Midwest are particularly impacted with HDD values of 25.2 and 24.0, respectively.

While the overall market sentiment remains positive, consumers should remain vigilant about supply reliability risks, especially as low cooling demand is anticipated. This could influence procurement strategies moving forward.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently experiencing a convergence of factors that lean towards a bullish outlook, primarily driven by strong demand for heating and a supportive sentiment score of +0.700. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply scenario which may further bolster prices.

However, analysts should keep an eye on geopolitical developments and OPEC+ production strategies that could introduce volatility into the market. The mixed sentiment around supply and weather impacts will be critical in determining future price movements.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.