Natural Gas Radar

2025-11-06 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/06/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas ended the season with 3.915 which is a bit less than most analysts were expecting - power and lng is keeping demand up - but we are starting November with a soft demand - but this weekend in the East we will have a pretty big cold snap. What this does to storage will be interesting….we are set for a lot of winter volatility. Near term I think 3.965 is a target that will be achieved as I think we have gone too far and too fast up. Don’t get me wrong I am bullish this winter and think we will see $5+....but I think it’s just a bit too soon. 4.394 and 4.174 is the bull bear lines…..break above 4.394 and we may see 5 sooner rather than later - drop below 4.174 and we will see “at least” 3.965

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-06 23:47:13 Length: 510 chars
Natural gas prices are experiencing volatility as the season ends with a price of $3.915, slightly below expectations. Demand remains supported by power and LNG, but a cold snap in the East could spark a significant storage impact. Near-term targets are set at $3.965, with bullish sentiments prevailing for winter, aiming for $5+. Key levels to watch are $4.394 for bullish momentum and $4.174 as a bearish line. As winter unfolds, keep an eye on storage data and weather forecasts for potential price shifts.

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 1.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 2.1 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 2 (Moderately Bullish)
Current Price: $4.38
Signal: Moderately Bullish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.94

MA(20): $3.53

Current Price is 4.38, 9 day MA 3.94, 20 day MA 3.53

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.3001

Signal: 0.1972

Days since crossover: 13

MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 73.81

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 73.81 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,475

Avg (20d): 152,431

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 97.42

%D: 94.33

Stochastic %K: 97.42, %D: 94.33. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 30.05

+DI: 40.28

-DI: 11.08

ADX: 30.05 (+DI: 40.28, -DI: 11.08). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -2.58

Williams %R: -2.58 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 4.49

Middle: 3.53

Lower: 2.57

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.49, Middle: 3.53, Lower: 2.57

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 106.4 105.1 103.2 101.73
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.07
Canadian Imports 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.47
Total Supply 112.2 110.8 109.1 107.23
Industrial Demand 22.4 23.9 22.8 23.2
Electric Power Demand 36.7 34.0 34.2 32.1
Residential & Commercial 20.2 19.3 16.8 19.87
LNG Exports 17.7 17.0 13.5 13.1
Mexico Exports 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.07
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.93
Total Demand 110.1 107.5 100.4 101.3
Supply/Demand Balance 2.1 3.3 8.7 5.93

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 13.8, CDD: 1.9)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 22.0)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 22.5)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 2.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 9.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 22.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 170.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 23.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 123.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 2.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 24.5
Total CDD: 38.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 9.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 101.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 20.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 110.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.8
Daily: -0.4 (-0.4%)
Weekly: -0.0 (-0.0%)

US_10Y

4.09
Daily: -0.06 (-1.54%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.2%)

SP500

6720.32
Daily: -75.97 (-1.12%)
Weekly: -119.88 (-1.75%)

VIX

19.5
Daily: 1.49 (8.27%)
Weekly: 2.06 (11.81%)

GOLD

4001.2
Daily: 20.9 (0.53%)
Weekly: 19.0 (0.48%)

COPPER

4.98
Daily: 0.01 (0.25%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-1.78%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.709 EUR/MWh (-0.220). JKM prices decreased to 11.160 USD/MMBtu (-0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.451 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.709

-0.220

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-06

JKM Prices

11.160

-0.030

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-06

JKM-TTF Spread

0.451

4.21%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-11-06

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.0
10.6
10.3
10.0
10.71
11.16
DEC 25
10.82
11.14
JAN 26
10.85
11.04
FEB 26
10.74
10.70
MAR 26
10.33
10.18
APR 26
10.22
10.12
MAY 26
10.24
10.28
JUN 26
10.27
10.40
JUL 26
10.32
10.54
AUG 26
10.40
10.60
SEP 26
10.48
10.62
OCT 26
10.71
10.80
NOV 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
DEC 25 10.709
JAN 26 10.816
FEB 26 10.848
MAR 26 10.736
APR 26 10.327
MAY 26 10.218
JUN 26 10.243
JUL 26 10.271
AUG 26 10.319
SEP 26 10.399
OCT 26 10.477
NOV 26 10.713
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.160
JAN 26 11.140
FEB 26 11.045
MAR 26 10.700
APR 26 10.180
MAY 26 10.120
JUN 26 10.280
JUL 26 10.400
AUG 26 10.540
SEP 26 10.600
OCT 26 10.615
NOV 26 10.800

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.075
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 73
Last Updated: 2025-11-06 23:48:06

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

CRUDE_OIL

-0.75

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Weather (3 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.38
Closest Support: $4.03 7.99% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.41 0.68% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $3.04
0.382 $3.31
0.5 $3.52
0.618 $3.73
0.786 $4.03 Support
1.0 $4.41 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.9
1.618 $5.52
2.0 $6.2
2.618 $7.31

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.36
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-06 23:48:06
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.5%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-07 $4.34 $3.99 $4.68
2025-11-08 $4.33 $3.98 $4.67
2025-11-09 $4.33 $3.98 $4.67
2025-11-10 $4.33 $3.99 $4.68
2025-11-11 $4.32 $3.98 $4.67

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.50% for the next trading day (2025-11-07), reaching $4.34.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-07 and 2025-11-11.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment overall, with a fundamental balance of 2.10 BCFD, indicating a slight decrease in supply. This may lead to potential price fluctuations. The Fibonacci support level is at 4.03 and resistance is at 4.41, which traders should monitor closely for breakout opportunities. The ML price forecast indicates a slight downward movement of 0.50%, suggesting short-term risks may outweigh opportunities. Traders should prepare for possible volatility given mixed sentiment and weather impacts.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a neutral market sentiment and a fundamental balance showing a decrease, producers may need to reevaluate their production levels and hedging strategies. The weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could influence demand for natural gas. Producers should consider adjusting production plans to align with these regional demands while also monitoring the negative sentiment surrounding crude oil due to weak demand and supply concerns.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains neutral. The weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand, which could affect natural gas prices. The fundamental balance shows a decrease in supply, suggesting that consumers may face supply reliability risks. It may be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies or hedging options to mitigate potential price increases as the market adjusts to changing demand and supply dynamics.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market landscape presents a neutral sentiment with mixed indicators. The fundamental balance is slightly bearish at 2.10 BCFD, which could imply a tightening supply situation. The weather outlook favors heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, while the negative sentiment surrounding crude oil suggests bearish pressures. Analysts should focus on these regional patterns and the potential for price volatility as key driving factors in the near term, while also considering the implications of ML forecasts on pricing trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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