Natural Gas Radar

2025-11-07 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/07/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas ended the season with 3.915 which is a bit less than most analysts were expecting - power and lng is keeping demand up - but we are starting November with a soft demand - but this weekend in the East we will have a pretty big cold snap. What this does to storage will be interesting….we are set for a lot of winter volatility. Near term I think 3.965 is a target that will be achieved as I think we have gone too far and too fast up. Don’t get me wrong I am bullish this winter and think we will see $5+....but I think it’s just a bit too soon. 4.394 and 4.174 is the bull bear lines…..break above 4.394 and we may see 5 sooner rather than later - drop below 4.174 and we will see “at least” 3.965

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-07 23:46:55 Length: 535 chars
Natural gas prices have seen volatility as the season ends with prices around 3.915. While demand from power and LNG is supportive, a recent warm spell and increased production have pressured prices. A cold snap expected this weekend could shift dynamics, but a target of 3.965 seems likely in the near term. The key levels to watch are 4.394 (bullish breakout) and 4.174 (bearish breakdown). Overall, winter looks bullish, but timing is crucial—$5+ could be in the cards if conditions align. Keep an eye on weather and storage trends!

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 1.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 2.1 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 2 (Moderately Bullish)
Current Price: $4.32
Signal: Moderately Bullish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $4.04

MA(20): $3.59

Current Price is 4.32, 9 day MA 4.04, 20 day MA 3.59

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.3099

Signal: 0.2195

Days since crossover: 14

MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 72.01

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 72.01 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 165,234

Avg (20d): 160,445

Ratio: 1.03

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 92.18

%D: 92.12

Stochastic %K: 92.18, %D: 92.12. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 31.99

+DI: 37.81

-DI: 10.34

ADX: 31.99 (+DI: 37.81, -DI: 10.34). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -7.82

Williams %R: -7.82 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 4.59

Middle: 3.59

Lower: 2.6

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.59, Middle: 3.59, Lower: 2.6

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 106.4 105.1 103.2 101.73
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.07
Canadian Imports 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.47
Total Supply 112.2 110.8 109.1 107.23
Industrial Demand 22.4 23.9 22.8 23.2
Electric Power Demand 36.7 34.0 34.2 32.1
Residential & Commercial 20.2 19.3 16.8 19.87
LNG Exports 17.7 17.0 13.5 13.1
Mexico Exports 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.07
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.93
Total Demand 110.1 107.5 100.4 101.3
Supply/Demand Balance 2.1 3.3 8.7 5.93

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 12.9, CDD: 2.1)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 25.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 14.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 0.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 10.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 14.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 187.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 27.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 146.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 20.0
Total CDD: 35.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 10.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 100.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 23.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 134.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.56
Daily: -0.17 (-0.17%)
Weekly: -0.31 (-0.31%)

US_10Y

4.09
Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.32%)

SP500

6728.8
Daily: 8.48 (0.13%)
Weekly: -123.17 (-1.8%)

VIX

19.08
Daily: -0.42 (-2.15%)
Weekly: 1.91 (11.12%)

GOLD

4007.8
Daily: 27.9 (0.7%)
Weekly: 7.5 (0.19%)

COPPER

4.96
Daily: 0.01 (0.25%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-1.76%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.681 EUR/MWh (-0.028). JKM prices decreased to 11.155 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.474 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.681

-0.028

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-07

JKM Prices

11.155

-0.005

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-07

JKM-TTF Spread

0.474

4.44%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-11-07

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.0
10.7
10.4
10.0
10.68
11.15
DEC 25
10.79
11.19
JAN 26
10.82
11.06
FEB 26
10.70
10.69
MAR 26
10.31
10.18
APR 26
10.21
10.14
MAY 26
10.24
10.30
JUN 26
10.27
10.41
JUL 26
10.31
10.55
AUG 26
10.39
10.62
SEP 26
10.48
10.62
OCT 26
10.71
10.80
NOV 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
DEC 25 10.681
JAN 26 10.785
FEB 26 10.817
MAR 26 10.703
APR 26 10.315
MAY 26 10.212
JUN 26 10.238
JUL 26 10.269
AUG 26 10.312
SEP 26 10.393
OCT 26 10.477
NOV 26 10.712
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.155
JAN 26 11.185
FEB 26 11.065
MAR 26 10.690
APR 26 10.180
MAY 26 10.145
JUN 26 10.305
JUL 26 10.410
AUG 26 10.555
SEP 26 10.625
OCT 26 10.615
NOV 26 10.800

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.35
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 76
Last Updated: 2025-11-07 23:47:50

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.0

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (7 articles)

Demand (5 articles)

Weather (3 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.32
Closest Support: $4.04 6.48% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.42 2.31% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $3.05
0.382 $3.31
0.5 $3.52
0.618 $3.73
0.786 $4.04 Support
1.0 $4.42 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.91
1.618 $5.53
2.0 $6.22
2.618 $7.33

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.36
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-07 23:47:50
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.49%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-07 $4.34 $3.99 $4.68
2025-11-08 $4.33 $3.98 $4.67
2025-11-09 $4.33 $3.98 $4.67
2025-11-10 $4.33 $3.99 $4.68
2025-11-11 $4.32 $3.98 $4.67

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.49% for the next trading day (2025-11-07), reaching $4.34.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-07 and 2025-11-11.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market indicators suggest a moderately bullish sentiment, with a Fibonacci support at 4.04 and resistance at 4.42. Traders should be cautious of the overall market sentiment being bearish with a score of -0.500, indicating potential volatility.

The fundamental balance has decreased significantly to 2.10 BCFD, which could lead to short-term price fluctuations. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.49% for the next day, suggesting traders should be prepared for potential retracements.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The combination of bearish market sentiment and a fundamental balance drop of -1.20 BCFD suggests a need for cautious production planning. Producers may want to consider adjusting their output to align with the current market dynamics and prepare for potential price declines.

With the weather outlook favoring heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, there may be opportunities to optimize production during peak demand periods. However, the hedging strategies should be revisited in light of the overall sentiment and the potential for further price drops.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should be aware of the bearish market sentiment which may lead to cost fluctuations in the near term. The moderate heating demand forecast indicates that heating costs could rise, especially in regions like the Northeast.

With the fundamental balance at 2.10 BCFD, there may be reliability risks in supply, prompting consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against potential price increases or supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently experiencing a convergence of bearish sentiment and declining fundamental balance, which could shift the outlook for the energy sector. The heating demand is expected to dominate, particularly in colder regions, which may provide temporary support against further price declines.

Analysts should closely monitor the ML price forecast and the evolving news sentiment, particularly regarding production levels and demand fluctuations, as these are critical factors that could drive significant shifts in market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for personalized guidance.

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