Natural Gas ended the season with 3.915 which is a bit less than most analysts were expecting - power and lng is keeping demand up - but we are starting November with a soft demand - but this weekend in the East we will have a pretty big cold snap. What this does to storage will be interesting….we are set for a lot of winter volatility. Near term I think 3.965 is a target that will be achieved as I think we have gone too far and too fast up. Don’t get me wrong I am bullish this winter and think we will see $5+....but I think it’s just a bit too soon. 4.394 and 4.174 is the bull bear lines…..break above 4.394 and we may see 5 sooner rather than later - drop below 4.174 and we will see “at least” 3.965. Well, the Sunday open brought us a move above 4.394 and this feels like the last leg and quite frankly it’s “too soon” for the bullish move - the next two weeks are set to be bearish on demand and we have not seen big demand YET. This seems to be more of a case of short covering (but there isn’t a way of re-confirming until the CFTC start reporting again - last positioning report was 9/23). The drop to reality seems like it’s around the corner (but it has felt that way for the last two weeks with unfinished business $1 beneath our current price point). This week I am looking for a re-test of 4.394 and 4.174 - it will now take momentum to get to 3.965 and if that momentum is there - we could drop all the way to 3.449. Sunday opened up in a big way and attempted to make a run to 4.50 but quickly fell back off below the key 4.394 - this seems to open the door to re-test 4.174 and likely run all the way back down to 3.965 (but markets never move in a straight line).