Natural Gas Radar

2025-11-12 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/12/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Due to the government shutdown, the CFTC has not been reporting positions since 9/23 - this leaves us a little blind to what I largely suspect is the reason for the run up (short covering). Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. For the rest of this week and next, I am looking at 4.476 and 4.394 as the key levels - today we may be testing 4.476 and if that breaks we could drop back down to “reality” at 4.174 (next support level).

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-12 23:46:40 Length: 530 chars
Natural gas has recently experienced a rollercoaster ride, reaching a multi-year high amidst forecasts of frigid temperatures, which typically spike demand. However, recent price movements suggest a potential pullback as mixed weather forecasts and a lack of CFTC data leave traders guessing. Short covering may be driving prices higher, but fundamentals seem neutral to slightly bearish in the near term. Key levels to watch are 4.476 and 4.394; a break could signal a retreat to around 4.174, pulling the market back to reality.

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 1.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.5 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 0.8 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 2 (Moderately Bullish)
Current Price: $4.52
Signal: Moderately Bullish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $4.34

MA(20): $3.8

Current Price is 4.52, 9 day MA 4.34, 20 day MA 3.8

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.3437

Signal: 0.2752

Days since crossover: 17

MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 73.54

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 73.54 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,658

Avg (20d): 155,391

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 95.39

%D: 93.75

Stochastic %K: 95.39, %D: 93.75. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 37.83

+DI: 35.66

-DI: 8.38

ADX: 37.83 (+DI: 35.66, -DI: 8.38). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -4.61

Williams %R: -4.61 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 4.86

Middle: 3.8

Lower: 2.75

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.86, Middle: 3.8, Lower: 2.75

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.5 106.4 101.8 102.13
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 6.3 5.8 5.9 5.03
Total Supply 113.8 112.2 107.8 106.53
Industrial Demand 22.8 22.4 23.0 23.2
Electric Power Demand 31.7 36.7 35.0 32.3
Residential & Commercial 28.4 20.2 18.0 19.6
LNG Exports 18.5 17.7 12.7 12.7
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.3 5.8 6.0
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.97
Total Demand 114.6 110.1 101.4 100.8
Supply/Demand Balance -0.8 2.1 6.4 5.73

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 14.5, CDD: 1.5)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 22.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 25.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 7.5)

West

Heating dominated (HDD: 3.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 25.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 154.5
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 23.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 156.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 89.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 3.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 14.0
Total CDD: 18.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 21.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 140.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.52
Daily: 0.06 (0.06%)
Weekly: -0.21 (-0.21%)

US_10Y

4.07
Daily: -0.05 (-1.33%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.68%)

SP500

6850.92
Daily: 4.31 (0.06%)
Weekly: 130.6 (1.94%)

VIX

17.51
Daily: 0.23 (1.33%)
Weekly: -1.99 (-10.21%)

GOLD

4213.5
Daily: 106.7 (2.6%)
Weekly: 233.6 (5.87%)

COPPER

5.12
Daily: 0.07 (1.43%)
Weekly: 0.18 (3.54%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.604 EUR/MWh (+0.036). JKM prices decreased to 11.130 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.526 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.604

+0.036

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-12

JKM Prices

11.130

-0.020

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-12

JKM-TTF Spread

0.526

4.96%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-11-12

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.3
10.0
10.60
11.13
DEC 25
10.67
11.04
JAN 26
10.71
10.91
FEB 26
10.62
10.57
MAR 26
10.25
10.07
APR 26
10.15
10.07
MAY 26
10.17
10.20
JUN 26
10.20
10.30
JUL 26
10.24
10.49
AUG 26
10.32
10.51
SEP 26
10.40
10.52
OCT 26
10.63
10.67
NOV 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
DEC 25 10.604
JAN 26 10.672
FEB 26 10.707
MAR 26 10.618
APR 26 10.248
MAY 26 10.155
JUN 26 10.171
JUL 26 10.199
AUG 26 10.245
SEP 26 10.325
OCT 26 10.404
NOV 26 10.634
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.130
JAN 26 11.035
FEB 26 10.910
MAR 26 10.570
APR 26 10.070
MAY 26 10.075
JUN 26 10.200
JUL 26 10.305
AUG 26 10.490
SEP 26 10.510
OCT 26 10.515
NOV 26 10.670

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.0
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 78
Last Updated: 2025-11-12 23:47:35

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (6 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (5 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.52
Closest Support: $4.16 7.96% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.58 1.33% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $3.08
0.382 $3.37
0.5 $3.6
0.618 $3.83
0.786 $4.16 Support
1.0 $4.58 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $5.11
1.618 $5.79
2.0 $6.54
2.618 $7.75

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.57
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-12 23:47:36
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.31%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-12 $4.55 $4.23 $4.87
2025-11-13 $4.55 $4.23 $4.87
2025-11-14 $4.56 $4.24 $4.88
2025-11-15 $4.56 $4.24 $4.88
2025-11-16 $4.55 $4.23 $4.87

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.31% for the next trading day (2025-11-12), reaching $4.55.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-12 and 2025-11-16.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~14.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment overall, with a moderately bullish technical score of 2/5. Traders should pay close attention to the Fibonacci support level at 4.16 and resistance at 4.58. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.31%, suggesting potential short-term volatility. This could present opportunities for trades around the support and resistance levels.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance is currently at -0.80 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation, which could affect production planning. The neutral market sentiment, with a slight upward bias in natural gas sentiment (+0.600), suggests that producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations while monitoring the impact of weather patterns on heating demand.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

The weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand with a high degree of heating degree days (HDD) across most regions, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. This could lead to potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. Consumers should be prepared for possible supply reliability risks and consider procurement strategies to secure favorable pricing ahead of increased demand during colder periods.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market landscape is characterized by a neutral overall sentiment with mixed indicators. The fundamental balance is slightly bearish, while the technical indicators show a moderately bullish sentiment. The strongest driving factors include weather impacts on heating demand and a slight decline in ML price forecasts, suggesting potential shifts in market dynamics that analysts should closely monitor for upcoming trends.

Disclaimer: This response is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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