Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Due to the government shutdown, the CFTC has not been reporting positions since 9/23 - this leaves us a little blind to what I largely suspect is the reason for the run up (short covering). Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. The Nat Gas Rally continues - the only reason that we are up this high is due to technical short covering and the prospects for a cold December are driving some fear - fundamentally nothing has changed for November (bearish the first two weeks and bullish the second two weeks = neutral). If weather doesn’t come through in December - we could see $1.50 come off - that said it seems that bulls are going to keep this up - all it needs for a massive retracement (like down to 3.965) is a tipping point….so be ready. For now I’m watching 4.476 - that will be the near term trigger.