Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Due to the government shutdown, the CFTC has not been reporting positions since 9/23 - this leaves us a little blind to what I largely suspect is the reason for the run up (short covering). Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. Monday broke the key levels of both 4.476 and 4.394 with the current trading at 4.335 in the afternoon session. 4.174 is likely the next stop - the traders are finally realizing just how warm November is….watch for 4.174 next. Bulls tried on Tuesday to bring Nat Gas back up to 4.394 but the destiny looks to be headed down. This week is likely a lot of balancing for positions before Thanksgiving holidays.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-18 18:34
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas is currently in a state of volatility, driven by short covering rather than solid fundamentals, especially as we enter a warmer November. Despite expectations of a bearish trend, prices have run up to around $4.335, breaking key levels of $4.476 and $4.394. The market is likely eyeing a test of $4.174 next, as traders adjust positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Watch for potential downward corrections, as the current rally may be more about fear than sustainable demand. Fundamentals suggest a winter target around $5, but caution is warranted.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.5 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 0.8 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.37
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.45
MA(20): $4.06
Current Price is 4.37, 9 day MA 4.45, 20 day MA 4.06
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.3157
Signal: 0.3118
Days since crossover: 21
MACD crossed the line 21 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 63.49
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 63.49 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 201
Avg (20d): 161,660
Ratio: 0.0
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 64.63
%D: 78.2
Stochastic %K: 64.63, %D: 78.2. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 41.89
+DI: 29.69
-DI: 10.35
ADX: 41.89 (+DI: 29.69, -DI: 10.35). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -35.37
Williams %R: -35.37 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 5.01
Middle: 4.06
Lower: 3.12
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 5.01, Middle: 4.06, Lower: 3.12
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.5 | 106.4 | 101.8 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.03 |
| Total Supply | 113.8 | 112.2 | 107.8 | 106.53 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.8 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 36.7 | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 28.4 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 19.6 |
| LNG Exports | 18.5 | 17.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.97 |
| Total Demand | 114.6 | 110.1 | 101.4 | 100.8 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -0.8 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 5.73 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
122.0 HDD
-9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
122.0 HDD
-25.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | 23.0 | 17.0 | +6.0 |
| 11/11 | 23.0 | 19.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/12 | 18.0 | 19.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/13 | 15.0 | 19.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/14 | 14.0 | 19.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/15 | 13.0 | 19.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/16 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/18 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/19 | 18.0 | 20.0 | -2.0 |
| 11/20 | 17.0 | 20.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/21 | 15.0 | 21.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/24 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/11 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.6
Daily:
0.01 (0.01%)
Weekly:
0.12 (0.12%)
US_10Y
4.12
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.43%)
SP500
6617.32
Daily:
-55.09 (-0.83%)
Weekly:
-233.6 (-3.41%)
VIX
24.69
Daily:
2.31 (10.32%)
Weekly:
7.18 (41.01%)
GOLD
4071.4
Daily:
3.1 (0.08%)
Weekly:
-133.0 (-3.16%)
COPPER
4.96
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.72%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.47%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,626,777
Change: -11,903
Managed Money
-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,936,690
Change: -25,930
Managed Money
26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 10.645 EUR/MWh (+0.020). JKM prices remained stable to 11.127 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.482 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.645
+0.020Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-18
JKM Prices
11.127
+0.000Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-18
JKM-TTF Spread
0.482
4.53%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-18
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.5
11.2
10.8
10.4
10.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.645 |
| JAN 26 | 10.749 |
| FEB 26 | 10.761 |
| MAR 26 | 10.658 |
| APR 26 | 10.266 |
| MAY 26 | 10.157 |
| JUN 26 | 10.162 |
| JUL 26 | 10.188 |
| AUG 26 | 10.230 |
| SEP 26 | 10.304 |
| OCT 26 | 10.370 |
| NOV 26 | 10.581 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 11.127 |
| JAN 26 | 11.400 |
| FEB 26 | 11.070 |
| MAR 26 | 10.640 |
| APR 26 | 10.195 |
| MAY 26 | 10.185 |
| JUN 26 | 10.295 |
| JUL 26 | 10.425 |
| AUG 26 | 10.560 |
| SEP 26 | 10.545 |
| OCT 26 | 10.575 |
| NOV 26 | 10.835 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.3
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
38
Last Updated:
2025-11-18 18:34:24
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil Steady With Focus on Russian Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.37
Closest Support:
$4.25
2.75% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.69
7.32% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.65
0.236
$3.13
0.382
$3.43
0.5
$3.67
0.618
$3.91
0.786
$4.25
Support
1.0
$4.69
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.24
1.618
$5.95
2.0
$6.72
2.618
$7.98
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.36
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-18 18:34:24
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.16%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | $4.37 | $4.04 | $4.7 |
| 2025-11-19 | $4.36 | $4.03 | $4.69 |
| 2025-11-20 | $4.35 | $4.02 | $4.68 |
| 2025-11-21 | $4.35 | $4.02 | $4.68 |
| 2025-11-22 | $4.37 | $4.04 | $4.69 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.16% for the next trading day (2025-11-18), reaching $4.37.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-18 and 2025-11-22.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data presents a moderately bullish outlook with a technical score of 3/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 4.25, while resistance is noted at 4.69. This indicates potential price movement towards the upper resistance level, especially given the ML price forecast predicting an increase of 0.16% within the range of 4.04 to 4.70.
However, the overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.300. Traders should be cautious as the divergence between technical indicators and news sentiment could lead to increased volatility. Short-term opportunities may exist for quick trades, but risks remain elevated due to the bearish news sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the fundamental balance of -0.80 BCFD indicating a tightening supply situation, especially with a significant change of -2.90. This may warrant adjustments in production planning to align with rising demand driven by the moderate heating demand expected in residential and commercial sectors.
The current bearish sentiment (-0.300) and geopolitical risks surrounding crude oil production could impact hedging strategies. Producers should monitor the geopolitical developments closely, as they may influence both pricing and operational strategies moving forward.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the current market dynamics. The moderate heating demand suggests that prices may rise, especially as the ML forecast indicates an upward trend. The 4.25 support level could provide a buffer against extreme price spikes, but vigilance is advised.
Additionally, the overall market sentiment and the current fundamental balance indicate possible supply reliability risks. Consumers may want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of price volatility on procurement costs.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with a moderately bullish technical outlook contrasted by a bearish sentiment. The fundamental balance of -0.80 BCFD indicates tightening supplies, while the weather outlook suggests increased demand for heating.
Analysts should focus on the interplay between technical indicators and news sentiment, as the divergence could signal potential shifts in market dynamics. The geopolitical risks surrounding crude oil and their implications for production and pricing should also be a focal point for future assessments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.