Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. Monday broke the key levels of both 4.476 and 4.394 with the current trading at 4.335 in the afternoon session. 4.174 is likely the next stop - the traders are finally realizing just how warm November is….watch for 4.174 next. 4.50 is the battleground and we are exiting the week above the key level of 4.476. Price is at a level that is the best case for the bulls - so one little misstep on weather - we could head down in a hurry - 4.174 is likely the next stop.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-21 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas prices have recently rallied, fueled by colder weather forecasts, pushing the market up to $4.335. This has defied initial bearish expectations, with traders now eyeing $4.50 as a crucial resistance level. However, the market remains vulnerable; a slip in temperatures could swiftly change sentiment. Notably, European prices are now at an 18-month low, highlighting regional disparities. Watch for weather developments and inventory data, as these will likely dictate price movements in the coming weeks.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 0.3 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.58
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.52
MA(20): $4.24
Current Price is 4.58, 9 day MA 4.52, 20 day MA 4.24
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.2924
Signal: 0.3057
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 66.65
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 66.65 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 169,555
Avg (20d): 168,065
Ratio: 1.01
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 78.02
%D: 73.97
Stochastic %K: 78.02, %D: 73.97. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 42.56
+DI: 31.04
-DI: 10.31
ADX: 42.56 (+DI: 31.04, -DI: 10.31). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -21.98
Williams %R: -21.98 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 5.02
Middle: 4.24
Lower: 3.45
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 5.02, Middle: 4.24, Lower: 3.45
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 106.4 | 101.8 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.03 |
| Total Supply | 114.3 | 112.2 | 107.8 | 106.53 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 36.7 | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 32.4 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 19.6 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 7.75 | 6.9 | 6.97 |
| Total Demand | 114.6 | 110.1 | 101.4 | 100.8 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -0.3 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 5.73 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
119.0 HDD
-17.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
124.0 HDD
-30.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
5.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/13 | 15.0 | 19.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/14 | 14.0 | 19.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/15 | 13.0 | 19.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/16 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/17 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/18 | 21.0 | 20.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/21 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/24 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/25 | 16.0 | 23.0 | -7.0 |
| 11/26 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/27 | 23.0 | 22.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.2
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
0.61 (0.61%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.04 (-1.05%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.69%)
SP500
6602.99
Daily:
64.23 (0.98%)
Weekly:
-69.42 (-1.04%)
VIX
23.43
Daily:
-2.99 (-11.32%)
Weekly:
1.05 (4.69%)
GOLD
4062.8
Daily:
6.3 (0.16%)
Weekly:
-5.5 (-0.14%)
COPPER
5.0
Daily:
0.04 (0.74%)
Weekly:
-0.0 (-0.08%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-07
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,640,321
Change: -18,765
Managed Money
-33,400
Change: -2,234
-2.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
3,325
Change: +12,194
0.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
132,611
Change: +5,448
8.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-108,561
Change: -14,527
-6.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-07
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)
Open Interest
2,036,074
Change: +29,716
Managed Money
-17,481
Change: -31,534
-0.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
294,284
Change: +20,623
14.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-392,340
Change: +14,417
-19.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 10.592 EUR/MWh (+0.016). JKM prices increased to 11.705 USD/MMBtu (+0.165). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.113 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.592
+0.016Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-21
JKM Prices
11.705
+0.165Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-11-21
JKM-TTF Spread
1.113
10.51%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-21
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.9
11.4
10.8
10.3
9.8
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.592 |
| JAN 26 | 10.607 |
| FEB 26 | 10.613 |
| MAR 26 | 10.505 |
| APR 26 | 10.116 |
| MAY 26 | 10.005 |
| JUN 26 | 10.016 |
| JUL 26 | 10.033 |
| AUG 26 | 10.080 |
| SEP 26 | 10.167 |
| OCT 26 | 10.226 |
| NOV 26 | 10.427 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.705 |
| FEB 26 | 11.405 |
| MAR 26 | 10.790 |
| APR 26 | 10.130 |
| MAY 26 | 9.995 |
| JUN 26 | 10.145 |
| JUL 26 | 10.240 |
| AUG 26 | 10.390 |
| SEP 26 | 10.400 |
| OCT 26 | 10.415 |
| NOV 26 | 10.490 |
| DEC 26 | 10.765 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
87
Last Updated:
2025-11-21 23:47:41
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.4
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Russian Supply Fears Reflected in Middle Distillate Market, ING Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls as Weaker Demand Signals Amplify Oversupply Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices fall as rising US inventories reinforce oversupply concerns Reuters
- Distillate Supply Concerns Pull Crude Futures Higher — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips As Traders Weigh Oversupply Prospects, Risks to Russian Flows — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (3 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (5 articles)
- Colder US Weather Forecasts Lift Nat-Gas Prices Barchart
- Nat-Gas Prices Decline as US Weather Forecasts Turn Warmer Barchart
- Nat-Gas Prices Jump on Colder US Weather Forecasts Barchart
- US Natgas Prices Rebound on Colder Forecasts Trading Economics
- Nat-Gas Prices Slightly Higher as Near-Term Weather Forecasts Turn Colder Barchart
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.58
Closest Support:
$4.28
6.55% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.69
2.4% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.22
0.382
$3.5
0.5
$3.73
0.618
$3.96
0.786
$4.28
Support
1.0
$4.69
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.21
1.618
$5.87
2.0
$6.6
2.618
$7.79
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.47
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-21 23:47:42
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.32%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | $4.49 | $4.17 | $4.8 |
| 2025-11-22 | $4.51 | $4.19 | $4.82 |
| 2025-11-23 | $4.5 | $4.19 | $4.82 |
| 2025-11-24 | $4.49 | $4.17 | $4.81 |
| 2025-11-25 | $4.5 | $4.18 | $4.82 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.32% for the next trading day (2025-11-21), reaching $4.49.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-21 and 2025-11-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Given the neutral overall market sentiment and a fundamental balance of -0.30 BCFD, traders should be cautious. The Fibonacci support level at 4.28 and resistance at 4.69 indicate potential price fluctuations. The ML forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.32%, with a trading range between 4.17 and 4.80. Look for short-term trading opportunities around these levels, but be prepared for volatility due to mixed demand signals and geopolitical concerns.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should note the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil, as indicated by the neutral overall market sentiment and fundamental balance. The focus on heating demand, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, suggests a need for strategic production planning to meet increased residential and commercial heating needs. Consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks from potential price declines, particularly in light of the geopolitical and demand sentiment trends.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas due to high heating demand, as indicated by the weather outlook showing significant heating degree days (HDD). With the neutral sentiment and a fundamental balance of -0.30 BCFD, there may be supply reliability risks. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies that account for the risk factors associated with price volatility and fluctuating demand.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment, with the strongest driving factors being the geopolitical and demand sentiments affecting crude oil. The fundamental balance indicates a slight oversupply, while the weather outlook suggests increased heating demand across multiple regions. Analysts should monitor these trends closely for potential shifts in market outlook, particularly as colder weather forecasts may impact natural gas prices positively.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.