Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. Monday broke the key levels of both 4.476 and 4.394 with the current trading at 4.335 in the afternoon session. 4.174 is likely the next stop - the traders are finally realizing just how warm November is….watch for 4.174 next. 4.50 is the battleground and we are exiting the week above the key level of 4.476. Price is at a level that is the best case for the bulls - so one little misstep on weather - we could head down in a hurry - 4.174 is likely the next stop.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-22 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas prices have been on a rollercoaster ride lately, driven by unpredictable weather patterns. Currently trading around $4.335, the market has defied expectations with fears of colder weather lifting prices despite a bearish fundamental outlook. Key levels to watch include $4.50 as a battleground and $4.174 as a potential next stop if bearish sentiment resurfaces. As traders focus on weather forecasts, the market remains volatile—be prepared for swift changes, especially if November’s warmth persists.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 0.3 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.58
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.52
MA(20): $4.24
Current Price is 4.58, 9 day MA 4.52, 20 day MA 4.24
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.2927
Signal: 0.3057
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 66.72
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 66.72 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 105,538
Avg (20d): 164,864
Ratio: 0.64
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 78.61
%D: 74.17
Stochastic %K: 78.61, %D: 74.17. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 42.56
+DI: 31.04
-DI: 10.31
ADX: 42.56 (+DI: 31.04, -DI: 10.31). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -21.39
Williams %R: -21.39 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 5.02
Middle: 4.24
Lower: 3.45
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 5.02, Middle: 4.24, Lower: 3.45
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 106.4 | 101.8 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.03 |
| Total Supply | 114.3 | 112.2 | 107.8 | 106.53 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 36.7 | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 32.4 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 19.6 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 7.75 | 6.9 | 6.97 |
| Total Demand | 114.6 | 110.1 | 101.4 | 100.8 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -0.3 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 5.73 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
124.0 HDD
-13.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
135.0 HDD
-21.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
6.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
5.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/14 | 14.0 | 19.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/15 | 13.0 | 19.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/16 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/17 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/18 | 21.0 | 20.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/20 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/24 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/25 | 16.0 | 23.0 | -7.0 |
| 11/26 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/27 | 23.0 | 22.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/28 | 25.0 | 23.0 | +2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.18
Daily:
0.02 (0.02%)
Weekly:
0.59 (0.59%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.04 (-1.05%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.69%)
SP500
6602.99
Daily:
64.23 (0.98%)
Weekly:
-69.42 (-1.04%)
VIX
23.43
Daily:
-2.99 (-11.32%)
Weekly:
1.05 (4.69%)
GOLD
4076.7
Daily:
20.2 (0.5%)
Weekly:
8.4 (0.21%)
COPPER
5.01
Daily:
0.05 (0.99%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.17%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-07
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,640,321
Change: -18,765
Managed Money
-33,400
Change: -2,234
-2.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
3,325
Change: +12,194
0.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
132,611
Change: +5,448
8.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-108,561
Change: -14,527
-6.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-07
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)
Open Interest
2,036,074
Change: +29,716
Managed Money
-17,481
Change: -31,534
-0.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
294,284
Change: +20,623
14.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-392,340
Change: +14,417
-19.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 10.506 EUR/MWh (-0.086). JKM prices decreased to 11.465 USD/MMBtu (-0.240). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.959 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.506
-0.086Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-22
JKM Prices
11.465
-0.240Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-11-22
JKM-TTF Spread
0.959
9.13%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-22
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.6
11.1
10.6
10.0
9.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.506 |
| JAN 26 | 10.250 |
| FEB 26 | 10.251 |
| MAR 26 | 10.135 |
| APR 26 | 9.760 |
| MAY 26 | 9.650 |
| JUN 26 | 9.654 |
| JUL 26 | 9.672 |
| AUG 26 | 9.718 |
| SEP 26 | 9.796 |
| OCT 26 | 9.855 |
| NOV 26 | 10.055 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.465 |
| FEB 26 | 10.970 |
| MAR 26 | 10.410 |
| APR 26 | 9.750 |
| MAY 26 | 9.645 |
| JUN 26 | 9.785 |
| JUL 26 | 9.900 |
| AUG 26 | 10.065 |
| SEP 26 | 10.065 |
| OCT 26 | 10.085 |
| NOV 26 | 10.160 |
| DEC 26 | 10.445 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.3
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
70
Last Updated:
2025-11-22 23:48:05
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
-0.3
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Russian Supply Fears Reflected in Middle Distillate Market, ING Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls as Weaker Demand Signals Amplify Oversupply Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (3 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (4 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.58
Closest Support:
$4.28
6.55% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.69
2.4% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.22
0.382
$3.5
0.5
$3.73
0.618
$3.96
0.786
$4.28
Support
1.0
$4.69
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.21
1.618
$5.87
2.0
$6.6
2.618
$7.79
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.58
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-22 23:48:06
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.19%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | $4.59 | $4.27 | $4.91 |
| 2025-11-23 | $4.59 | $4.27 | $4.91 |
| 2025-11-24 | $4.58 | $4.26 | $4.9 |
| 2025-11-25 | $4.59 | $4.27 | $4.9 |
| 2025-11-26 | $4.58 | $4.26 | $4.9 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.19% for the next trading day (2025-11-22), reaching $4.59.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-22 and 2025-11-26.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Traders should note the moderately bullish technical interpretation with a score of 2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 4.28, while resistance is at 4.69. This suggests potential price movements within this range.
The ML price forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.19%, suggesting short-term upward momentum. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish with a score of -0.317, which could introduce volatility.
Traders should be cautious of potential risks associated with bearish news sentiment and consider short-term trading strategies that leverage the expected price fluctuations.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the fundamental balance which is currently at -0.30 BCFD with a change of +0.50. This indicates a tightening supply situation that may influence production planning.
Given the high heating demand forecasted across all regions, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, producers should evaluate their hedging strategies to manage potential price volatility.
Despite the bearish sentiment in the market, the focus should be on production optimization to meet increased demand while navigating the current market challenges.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the expected rise in heating demand, particularly in regions with significant heating degree days (HDD). The weather outlook indicates a strong need for heating across the board.
With the overall market sentiment being bearish, there may be risks associated with supply reliability, especially if production does not keep pace with demand.
It would be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against potential price increases while ensuring supply stability throughout the winter months.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market picture reflects a complex interplay of factors. The bearish sentiment (-0.317) contrasts with the moderately bullish technical indicators, suggesting a divergence that analysts should monitor closely.
Key driving factors include the fundamental balance of -0.30 BCFD, indicating tighter supply conditions, and significant heating demand across multiple regions.
Analysts should focus on the potential for outlook shifts as market sentiment evolves and external factors, such as geopolitical developments and economic indicators, continue to unfold.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.