Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. Monday broke the key levels of both 4.476 and 4.394 with the current trading at 4.335 in the afternoon session. 4.174 is likely the next stop - the traders are finally realizing just how warm November is….watch for 4.174 next. 4.50 is the battleground and we are exiting the week above the key level of 4.476. Price is at a level that is the best case for the bulls - so one little misstep on weather - we could head down in a hurry - 4.174 is likely the next stop.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-23 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas prices are experiencing volatility amidst a backdrop of warmer-than-expected November weather, which is causing traders to reassess fundamentals. Currently trading around $4.335, the market has broken key levels of $4.476 and $4.394, with $4.174 likely the next point of focus. While colder weather forecasts are boosting prices, concerns linger over potential downturns as traders engage in fear-driven short covering. Watch for $4.50 as a critical battleground, as any weather misstep could send prices tumbling.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 0.3 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.61
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.52
MA(20): $4.3
Current Price is 4.61, 9 day MA 4.52, 20 day MA 4.3
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.288
Signal: 0.3022
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 67.5
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 67.5 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,423
Avg (20d): 162,113
Ratio: 0.08
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 85.28
%D: 76.1
Stochastic %K: 85.28, %D: 76.1. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 43.1
+DI: 31.04
-DI: 10.31
ADX: 43.1 (+DI: 31.04, -DI: 10.31). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -14.72
Williams %R: -14.72 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 5.01
Middle: 4.3
Lower: 3.59
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 5.01, Middle: 4.3, Lower: 3.59
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 106.4 | 101.8 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.03 |
| Total Supply | 114.3 | 112.2 | 107.8 | 106.53 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 36.7 | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 32.4 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 19.6 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 7.75 | 6.9 | 6.97 |
| Total Demand | 114.6 | 110.1 | 101.4 | 100.8 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -0.3 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 5.73 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
128.0 HDD
-11.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
147.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
7.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/15 | 13.0 | 19.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/16 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/17 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/18 | 21.0 | 20.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/20 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/21 | 18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/23 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/24 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/25 | 16.0 | 23.0 | -7.0 |
| 11/26 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/27 | 24.0 | 22.0 | +2.0 |
| 11/28 | 26.0 | 23.0 | +3.0 |
| 11/29 | 27.0 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.18
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.63 (0.63%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.04 (-1.05%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.69%)
SP500
6602.99
Daily:
64.23 (0.98%)
Weekly:
-69.42 (-1.04%)
VIX
23.43
Daily:
-2.99 (-11.32%)
Weekly:
1.05 (4.69%)
GOLD
4043.9
Daily:
-32.8 (-0.8%)
Weekly:
-17.4 (-0.43%)
COPPER
5.0
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.2%)
Weekly:
0.04 (0.73%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-07
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,640,321
Change: -18,765
Managed Money
-33,400
Change: -2,234
-2.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
3,325
Change: +12,194
0.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
132,611
Change: +5,448
8.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-108,561
Change: -14,527
-6.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-07
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)
Open Interest
2,036,074
Change: +29,716
Managed Money
-17,481
Change: -31,534
-0.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
294,284
Change: +20,623
14.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-392,340
Change: +14,417
-19.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 10.506 EUR/MWh (-0.086). JKM prices decreased to 11.465 USD/MMBtu (-0.240). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.959 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.506
-0.086Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-23
JKM Prices
11.465
-0.240Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-11-23
JKM-TTF Spread
0.959
9.13%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-23
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.6
11.1
10.6
10.0
9.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.506 |
| JAN 26 | 10.250 |
| FEB 26 | 10.251 |
| MAR 26 | 10.135 |
| APR 26 | 9.760 |
| MAY 26 | 9.650 |
| JUN 26 | 9.654 |
| JUL 26 | 9.672 |
| AUG 26 | 9.718 |
| SEP 26 | 9.796 |
| OCT 26 | 9.855 |
| NOV 26 | 10.055 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.465 |
| FEB 26 | 10.970 |
| MAR 26 | 10.410 |
| APR 26 | 9.750 |
| MAY 26 | 9.645 |
| JUN 26 | 9.785 |
| JUL 26 | 9.900 |
| AUG 26 | 10.065 |
| SEP 26 | 10.065 |
| OCT 26 | 10.085 |
| NOV 26 | 10.160 |
| DEC 26 | 10.445 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.333
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
42
Last Updated:
2025-11-23 23:47:37
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
Top News Topics
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.61
Closest Support:
$4.28
7.16% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.69
1.74% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.22
0.382
$3.5
0.5
$3.73
0.618
$3.96
0.786
$4.28
Support
1.0
$4.69
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.21
1.618
$5.87
2.0
$6.6
2.618
$7.79
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.58
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-23 23:47:38
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.19%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | $4.59 | $4.27 | $4.91 |
| 2025-11-23 | $4.59 | $4.27 | $4.91 |
| 2025-11-24 | $4.58 | $4.26 | $4.9 |
| 2025-11-25 | $4.59 | $4.27 | $4.9 |
| 2025-11-26 | $4.58 | $4.26 | $4.9 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.19% for the next trading day (2025-11-22), reaching $4.59.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-22 and 2025-11-26.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present a moderately bullish outlook with a Fibonacci support at 4.28 and resistance at 4.69. Traders should monitor the potential volatility given the overall market sentiment being bearish with a sentiment score of -0.333. The ML price forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.19%, suggesting short-term opportunities for tactical trades within the range of 4.27 to 4.91. This convergence of indicators may provide a window for traders to capitalize on price movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the fundamental balance at -0.30 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation. The high heating demand forecast suggests a potential increase in natural gas consumption, impacting production planning. However, the negative market sentiment could affect pricing strategies. Producers may want to evaluate hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations influenced by geopolitical developments and weather patterns.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the anticipated high heating demand. The fundamental balance indicates a tighter supply, which may lead to higher prices. With the overall market sentiment being negative, procurement strategies should consider securing supplies in advance to avoid price spikes. Monitoring weather forecasts will be crucial for adjusting consumption strategies and managing supply reliability risks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape reflects a bearish sentiment across major commodities, particularly with natural gas and crude oil. The fundamental balance shows a decline in supply, which is countered by high heating demand in key regions. Analysts should focus on the interplay between weather forecasts and machine learning price predictions that suggest short-term upward price movements. Identifying the strongest driving factors will be essential for forecasting potential shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.