Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. Monday broke the key levels of both 4.476 and 4.394 with the current trading at 4.335 in the afternoon session. 4.174 is likely the next stop - the traders are finally realizing just how warm November is….watch for 4.174 next. 4.50 is the battleground and we are exiting the week above the key level of 4.476. Price is at a level that is the best case for the bulls - so one little misstep on weather - we could head down in a hurry - 4.174 is likely the next stop. Mondays trading was a stalled point at 4.50 (not really moving up or down) - but the key bull/bear line right now is 4.476.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-27 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently experiencing a volatile surge, driven by a larger-than-expected EIA storage draw and fears of colder weather. Despite this rally, fundamentals suggest a neutral to slightly bearish outlook, with prices potentially testing $5 this winter. The market recently broke key levels at 4.476 and 4.394, with a current trading level around 4.335. Traders should watch for potential downturns, especially if temperatures remain warm. The battleground is firmly at 4.50, indicating a critical pivot point for bulls and bears alike.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 9.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 8.9 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.65
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.53
MA(20): $4.36
Current Price is 4.65, 9 day MA 4.53, 20 day MA 4.36
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.2797
Signal: 0.2968
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 67.69
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 67.69 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 29,548
Avg (20d): 161,512
Ratio: 0.18
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 92.34
%D: 80.98
Stochastic %K: 92.34, %D: 80.98. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 43.56
+DI: 31.14
-DI: 9.93
ADX: 43.56 (+DI: 31.14, -DI: 9.93). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -7.66
Williams %R: -7.66 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 4.93
Middle: 4.36
Lower: 3.79
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.93, Middle: 4.36, Lower: 3.79
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.1 | 102.4 | 102.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.83 |
| Total Supply | 114.8 | 114.3 | 108.4 | 108.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 20.1 | 22.3 | 23.7 | 24.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.4 | 38.7 | 31.6 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 37.0 | 32.4 | 25.5 | 28.63 |
| LNG Exports | 19.0 | 17.9 | 14.2 | 13.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 123.7 | 114.6 | 107.9 | 111.2 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -8.9 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -2.43 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
131.0 HDD
-19.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
200.0 HDD
+34.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
6.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/19 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/20 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/21 | 18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/24 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/25 | 18.0 | 23.0 | -5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/27 | 24.0 | 22.0 | +2.0 |
| 11/28 | 27.0 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/29 | 28.0 | 23.0 | +5.0 |
| 11/30 | 28.0 | 24.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/01 | 31.0 | 24.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/02 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/03 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.59
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.01%)
Weekly:
-0.59 (-0.59%)
US_10Y
4.0
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-2.63%)
SP500
6812.61
Daily:
46.73 (0.69%)
Weekly:
273.85 (4.19%)
VIX
17.21
Daily:
0.02 (0.12%)
Weekly:
-6.22 (-26.55%)
GOLD
4221.3
Daily:
129.4 (3.16%)
Weekly:
143.6 (3.52%)
COPPER
5.05
Daily:
0.09 (1.87%)
Weekly:
0.05 (0.94%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,674,169
Change: +33,848
Managed Money
-75,339
Change: -41,939
-4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-3,153
Change: -6,478
-0.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
145,684
Change: +13,073
8.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-76,774
Change: +31,787
-4.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,066,590
Change: +30,516
Managed Money
-18,766
Change: -1,285
-0.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
295,445
Change: +1,161
14.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-376,825
Change: +15,515
-18.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 10.468 EUR/MWh (+0.002). JKM prices decreased to 11.115 USD/MMBtu (-0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.647 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.468
+0.002Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-27
JKM Prices
11.115
-0.015Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-11-27
JKM-TTF Spread
0.647
6.18%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-27
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
10.8
10.3
9.8
9.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.468 |
| JAN 26 | 10.040 |
| FEB 26 | 10.064 |
| MAR 26 | 9.963 |
| APR 26 | 9.627 |
| MAY 26 | 9.505 |
| JUN 26 | 9.523 |
| JUL 26 | 9.552 |
| AUG 26 | 9.597 |
| SEP 26 | 9.687 |
| OCT 26 | 9.750 |
| NOV 26 | 9.960 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.115 |
| FEB 26 | 10.630 |
| MAR 26 | 10.105 |
| APR 26 | 9.585 |
| MAY 26 | 9.470 |
| JUN 26 | 9.600 |
| JUL 26 | 9.745 |
| AUG 26 | 9.890 |
| SEP 26 | 9.885 |
| OCT 26 | 9.885 |
| NOV 26 | 10.020 |
| DEC 26 | 10.295 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.267
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
83
Last Updated:
2025-11-27 23:47:46
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (2 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Rally on a Larger EIA Storage Draw Barchart
- US Natural Gas Storage Falls for 2nd Week Trading Economics
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.65
Closest Support:
$4.28
7.96% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.69
0.86% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.22
0.382
$3.5
0.5
$3.73
0.618
$3.96
0.786
$4.28
Support
1.0
$4.69
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.21
1.618
$5.87
2.0
$6.6
2.618
$7.79
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.55
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-27 23:47:46
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.08%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | $4.55 | $4.24 | $4.87 |
| 2025-11-26 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-27 | $4.55 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-28 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.85 |
| 2025-11-29 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $4.55.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a Fibonacci support at 4.28 and a resistance level at 4.69. Traders should be cautious as the overall market sentiment is bearish with a score of -0.333. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.08% with a range between 4.24 and 4.87. This presents a potential short-term opportunity, but volatility may arise due to the mixed weather outlook impacting demand.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at -8.90 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning as the market sentiment is bearish, particularly influenced by high output levels and a mixed weather forecast. It may be prudent to evaluate hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations in the coming weeks.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand expected across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening market, which could lead to increased prices, especially during peak demand periods. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies or hedging to protect against price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment driven by a negative fundamental balance of -8.90 BCFD and a mixed weather outlook. Despite this, the ML price forecast suggests a slight upward trend in prices. Analysts should closely monitor the impact of weather on heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, as this could influence market dynamics significantly in the short term.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.