Natural gas has officially entered its winter personality mode — dramatic, unpredictable, and way too influenced by a single weather model run. After spending most of November pretending fundamentals didn’t exist, the market exploded higher as early December forecasts turned sharply colder. Production has ticked up significantly (but so has demand) - Nat Gas keeps trending higher, mostly based on forward forecasts - the current supply/demand balance is typical for this time of year and storage has yet to achieve a worrisome place - sitting consistently at 4.2% above the 5 year average. Right now - it feels like there is WAY more downside than upside and traders are not wanting to go short (even though that is likely the play). Technically we should head up to $5.06 and we may see that come Monday - but I think a bigger likelihood is a selloff. This rally has felt pre-mature to me, despite believing that this winter was holding $5+ potential. Right now - traders are buying the rumor…..I’m thinking we are close to selling the fact.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-30 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has embraced its winter persona, with prices surging due to forecasts of below-normal temperatures. Currently, production is up, but so is demand, keeping the supply/demand balance typical for this season. Storage levels remain healthy at 4.2% above the five-year average. Traders seem hesitant to short, even though a selloff may be on the horizon. With potential upward movement toward $5.06, this rally feels premature, as market sentiment shifts from buying the rumor to possibly selling the fact. Stay vigilant!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 9.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 8.9 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.84
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.55
MA(20): $4.37
Current Price is 4.84, 9 day MA 4.55, 20 day MA 4.37
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.2949
Signal: 0.2999
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 71.35
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 71.35 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 8,747
Avg (20d): 160,472
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 94.46
%D: 81.68
Stochastic %K: 94.46, %D: 81.68. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 44.11
+DI: 36.36
-DI: 9.28
ADX: 44.11 (+DI: 36.36, -DI: 9.28). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -5.54
Williams %R: -5.54 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 4.96
Middle: 4.37
Lower: 3.77
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.96, Middle: 4.37, Lower: 3.77
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.1 | 102.4 | 102.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.83 |
| Total Supply | 114.8 | 114.3 | 108.4 | 108.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 20.1 | 22.3 | 23.7 | 24.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.4 | 38.7 | 31.6 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 37.0 | 32.4 | 25.5 | 28.63 |
| LNG Exports | 19.0 | 17.9 | 14.2 | 13.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 123.7 | 114.6 | 107.9 | 111.2 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -8.9 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -2.43 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
142.0 HDD
-14.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
212.0 HDD
+34.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/24 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/25 | 18.0 | 23.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/26 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/27 | 24.0 | 22.0 | +2.0 |
| 11/28 | 27.0 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/30 | 28.0 | 24.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/01 | 31.0 | 24.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/02 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/03 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/04 | 32.0 | 26.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/05 | 32.0 | 27.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/06 | 28.0 | 27.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.42
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
-0.72 (-0.72%)
US_10Y
4.02
Daily:
0.02 (0.48%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.13%)
SP500
6849.09
Daily:
36.48 (0.54%)
Weekly:
246.1 (3.73%)
VIX
16.35
Daily:
-0.84 (-4.89%)
Weekly:
-7.08 (-30.22%)
GOLD
4276.9
Daily:
185.0 (4.52%)
Weekly:
199.2 (4.89%)
COPPER
5.33
Daily:
0.36 (7.35%)
Weekly:
0.32 (6.36%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,674,169
Change: +33,848
Managed Money
-75,339
Change: -41,939
-4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-3,153
Change: -6,478
-0.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
145,684
Change: +13,073
8.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-76,774
Change: +31,787
-4.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,066,590
Change: +30,516
Managed Money
-18,766
Change: -1,285
-0.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
295,445
Change: +1,161
14.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-376,825
Change: +15,515
-18.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 10.468 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 11.090 USD/MMBtu (-0.025). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.622 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.468
+0.000Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-30
JKM Prices
11.090
-0.025Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-11-30
JKM-TTF Spread
0.622
5.94%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-30
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
10.7
10.2
9.7
9.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.468 |
| JAN 26 | 9.804 |
| FEB 26 | 9.836 |
| MAR 26 | 9.746 |
| APR 26 | 9.453 |
| MAY 26 | 9.340 |
| JUN 26 | 9.365 |
| JUL 26 | 9.393 |
| AUG 26 | 9.434 |
| SEP 26 | 9.525 |
| OCT 26 | 9.609 |
| NOV 26 | 9.818 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.090 |
| FEB 26 | 10.500 |
| MAR 26 | 9.975 |
| APR 26 | 9.460 |
| MAY 26 | 9.365 |
| JUN 26 | 9.495 |
| JUL 26 | 9.610 |
| AUG 26 | 9.770 |
| SEP 26 | 9.770 |
| OCT 26 | 9.795 |
| NOV 26 | 9.925 |
| DEC 26 | 10.205 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.275
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
29
Last Updated:
2025-11-30 23:47:40
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.85
CRUDE_OIL
-0.3
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Oil Rises After OPEC+ Keeps Output Unchanged Trading Economics
- Oil rises after OPEC+ meeting maintains current output Reuters
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.84
Closest Support:
$4.43
8.47% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.88
0.83% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.27
0.382
$3.58
0.5
$3.82
0.618
$4.07
0.786
$4.43
Support
1.0
$4.88
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.45
1.618
$6.18
2.0
$6.98
2.618
$8.29
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.55
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-30 23:47:41
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.08%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | $4.55 | $4.24 | $4.87 |
| 2025-11-26 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-27 | $4.55 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-28 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.85 |
| 2025-11-29 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $4.55.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support is at 4.43 while the resistance level is at 4.88. Traders should be cautious as price predictions indicate a slight upward movement of 0.08% with a range between 4.24 and 4.87. This presents potential short-term opportunities, but the overall volatility may remain subdued.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at -8.90 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply environment. Producers should consider this in their production planning and hedging strategies. Furthermore, the bullish sentiment around natural gas (+0.800) suggests favorable market conditions, while crude oil sentiment remains bearish (-0.400) due to stable OPEC+ output. This divergence may impact operational decisions and market positioning.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand forecasted across all regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The weather outlook indicates significant heating degree days (HDD), necessitating a review of supply reliability risks. Consumers should consider their procurement strategies in light of the bullish sentiment in the natural gas market, as this may lead to increased prices in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a mixed picture. The overall market sentiment is bullish (+0.200), driven largely by natural gas sentiment, while crude oil sentiment remains bearish. The fundamental balance indicates tightening supply, and weather forecasts predict high heating demand. These factors suggest a potential shift in market dynamics, with natural gas likely to outperform crude oil in the short term, warranting close monitoring of market developments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.