Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but after December 5th - we are seeing the HDDs dropping….that is not a good sign for bulls. The technical move to $5 is astounding - I expected $5 back in October - but felt this move was WAAAYYY too premature - I want to see the fundamental support - and right now we are more “average” while a move from $4 to $4.90 is not average - the two things can not coexist. At this point, I am halfway expecting a sharp reversal during December - and this will thrust us back down in a big BIG way - like $1-1.50. That said - if the forecasts live up to expectations - we will need to see significant follow through to really see any more upside. For this week - I am watching 4.476 as the key point to drop to - question is - will we touch 5.06 first…..price is so close to that right now….but fundamentals don’t support it while technicals do.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-01 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are experiencing volatility, buoyed by colder U.S. temperatures that have recently lifted prices, pushing them to a three-year high. However, forecasts predict a decline in heating degree days (HDDs) after December 5th, raising concerns for bulls. While technical signals suggest a potential move towards $5, fundamentals remain average, creating skepticism about sustaining these levels. Watch for critical price points: will we see a bounce around $5.06 or a drop to $4.476? The market's direction hinges on upcoming weather forecasts and storage data.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 9.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 8.9 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.88
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.55
MA(20): $4.37
Current Price is 4.88, 9 day MA 4.55, 20 day MA 4.37
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.2982
Signal: 0.3005
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 72.05
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 72.05 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,590
Avg (20d): 160,214
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 95.3
%D: 81.96
Stochastic %K: 95.3, %D: 81.96. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 44.19
+DI: 37.15
-DI: 9.17
ADX: 44.19 (+DI: 37.15, -DI: 9.17). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -4.7
Williams %R: -4.7 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 4.97
Middle: 4.37
Lower: 3.77
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.97, Middle: 4.37, Lower: 3.77
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.1 | 102.4 | 102.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.83 |
| Total Supply | 114.8 | 114.3 | 108.4 | 108.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 20.1 | 22.3 | 23.7 | 24.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.4 | 38.7 | 31.6 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 37.0 | 32.4 | 25.5 | 28.63 |
| LNG Exports | 19.0 | 17.9 | 14.2 | 13.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 123.7 | 114.6 | 107.9 | 111.2 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -8.9 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -2.43 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
153.0 HDD
-4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
217.0 HDD
+35.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/23 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/24 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/25 | 18.0 | 23.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/26 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/27 | 24.0 | 22.0 | +2.0 |
| 11/28 | 27.0 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/29 | 28.0 | 23.0 | +5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01 | 31.0 | 24.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/02 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/03 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/04 | 33.0 | 26.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/06 | 29.0 | 27.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/07 | 29.0 | 28.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.4
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-0.74 (-0.74%)
US_10Y
4.1
Daily:
0.08 (1.97%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.44%)
SP500
6812.63
Daily:
-36.46 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
107.51 (1.6%)
VIX
17.24
Daily:
0.89 (5.44%)
Weekly:
-3.28 (-15.98%)
GOLD
4246.7
Daily:
154.8 (3.78%)
Weekly:
169.0 (4.14%)
COPPER
5.15
Daily:
0.19 (3.79%)
Weekly:
0.14 (2.84%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,674,169
Change: +33,848
Managed Money
-75,339
Change: -41,939
-4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-3,153
Change: -6,478
-0.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
145,684
Change: +13,073
8.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-76,774
Change: +31,787
-4.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,066,590
Change: +30,516
Managed Money
-18,766
Change: -1,285
-0.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
295,445
Change: +1,161
14.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-376,825
Change: +15,515
-18.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 10.468 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 11.090 USD/MMBtu (-0.025). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.622 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.468
+0.000Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-12-01
JKM Prices
11.090
-0.025Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-01
JKM-TTF Spread
0.622
5.94%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-01
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
10.7
10.2
9.7
9.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.468 |
| JAN 26 | 9.804 |
| FEB 26 | 9.836 |
| MAR 26 | 9.746 |
| APR 26 | 9.453 |
| MAY 26 | 9.340 |
| JUN 26 | 9.365 |
| JUL 26 | 9.393 |
| AUG 26 | 9.434 |
| SEP 26 | 9.525 |
| OCT 26 | 9.609 |
| NOV 26 | 9.818 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.090 |
| FEB 26 | 10.500 |
| MAR 26 | 9.975 |
| APR 26 | 9.460 |
| MAY 26 | 9.365 |
| JUN 26 | 9.495 |
| JUL 26 | 9.610 |
| AUG 26 | 9.770 |
| SEP 26 | 9.770 |
| OCT 26 | 9.795 |
| NOV 26 | 9.925 |
| DEC 26 | 10.205 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
43
Last Updated:
2025-12-01 23:47:32
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.8
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Oil rises on geopolitical risks to supply Reuters
- Oil Rises After OPEC+ Keeps Output Unchanged Trading Economics
- Oil rises after OPEC+ meeting maintains current output Reuters
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.88
Closest Support:
$4.46
8.61% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.92
0.82% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.28
0.382
$3.59
0.5
$3.84
0.618
$4.1
0.786
$4.46
Support
1.0
$4.92
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.5
1.618
$6.24
2.0
$7.06
2.618
$8.38
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.55
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-01 23:47:32
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.08%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | $4.55 | $4.24 | $4.87 |
| 2025-11-26 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-27 | $4.55 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-28 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.85 |
| 2025-11-29 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $4.55.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market signals suggest a neutral outlook with a technical score of 1/5. Key Fibonacci support is identified at 4.46 and resistance at 4.92. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility, especially given the fundamental balance of -8.90 BCFD which indicates a tightening supply. The ML price forecast predicts a slight increase of 0.08% with a range of 4.24 to 4.87, suggesting short-term opportunities for profit but also risks of reversal if resistance levels are tested.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a bullish overall market sentiment score of +0.650, producers should consider adjusting production strategies to capitalize on anticipated demand driven by high heating needs as indicated by the weather outlook. The fundamental balance shows a significant decrease, suggesting a tighter supply which could favor pricing. Additionally, staying informed on geopolitical developments and maintaining effective hedging strategies will be crucial to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as high heating demand is expected due to the current weather outlook. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply scenario, which could lead to increased prices. Thus, it may be prudent for consumers to explore procurement strategies or hedging options to manage future costs effectively, especially with the ML price forecast suggesting a slight upward trend.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a complex picture influenced by multiple factors. The overall bullish sentiment, coupled with a fundamental balance of -8.90 BCFD, signals potential upward price pressure. Additionally, the weather outlook indicates robust heating demand across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Analysts should monitor these driving factors closely, as shifts in geopolitical developments or supply chain disruptions could alter the market dynamics significantly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific recommendations.