Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but after December 5th - we are seeing the HDDs dropping….that is not a good sign for bulls. The technical move to $5 is astounding - I expected $5 back in October - but felt this move was WAAAYYY too premature - I want to see the fundamental support - and right now we are more “average” while a move from $4 to $4.90 is not average - the two things can not coexist. At this point, I am halfway expecting a sharp reversal during December - and this will thrust us back down in a big BIG way - like $1-1.50. That said - if the forecasts live up to expectations - we will need to see significant follow through to really see any more upside. For this week - I am watching 4.476 as the key point to drop to - question is - will we touch 5.06 first…..price is so close to that right now….but fundamentals don’t support it while technicals do.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-03 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are experiencing volatility, recently pushing above $5/MMBtu due to a wave of cold weather boosting demand. However, forecasts for warmer temperatures post-December 5th suggest potential declines, with some analysts expecting a sharp reversal to around $1-1.50. Despite the current bullish forecasts, the fundamental support remains weak, indicating that the technical price increase may not be sustainable. Traders should monitor the pivotal $4.476 level closely, as it could signal further movements.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 9.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 8.9 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$5.0
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.57
MA(20): $4.38
Current Price is 5.0, 9 day MA 4.57, 20 day MA 4.38
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.3078
Signal: 0.3025
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 73.87
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 73.87 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,729
Avg (20d): 160,221
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 99.02
%D: 83.2
Stochastic %K: 99.02, %D: 83.2. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 44.37
+DI: 39.02
-DI: 8.89
ADX: 44.37 (+DI: 39.02, -DI: 8.89). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -0.98
Williams %R: -0.98 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 5.0
Middle: 4.38
Lower: 3.75
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 5.0, Middle: 4.38, Lower: 3.75
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.1 | 102.4 | 102.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.83 |
| Total Supply | 114.8 | 114.3 | 108.4 | 108.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 20.1 | 22.3 | 23.7 | 24.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.4 | 38.7 | 31.6 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 37.0 | 32.4 | 25.5 | 28.63 |
| LNG Exports | 19.0 | 17.9 | 14.2 | 13.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 123.7 | 114.6 | 107.9 | 111.2 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -8.9 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -2.43 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
175.0 HDD
+14.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
218.0 HDD
+29.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/25 | 18.0 | 23.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/26 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/27 | 24.0 | 22.0 | +2.0 |
| 11/28 | 27.0 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/29 | 28.0 | 23.0 | +5.0 |
| 11/30 | 29.0 | 24.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/01 | 31.0 | 24.0 | +7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/04 | 34.0 | 26.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/06 | 29.0 | 27.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/07 | 29.0 | 28.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/08 | 32.0 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/09 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.99
Daily:
-0.37 (-0.38%)
Weekly:
-0.61 (-0.62%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.71%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.48%)
SP500
6849.72
Daily:
20.35 (0.3%)
Weekly:
37.11 (0.54%)
VIX
16.08
Daily:
-0.51 (-3.07%)
Weekly:
-1.11 (-6.46%)
GOLD
4226.8
Daily:
134.9 (3.3%)
Weekly:
149.1 (3.66%)
COPPER
5.41
Daily:
0.45 (9.09%)
Weekly:
0.41 (8.09%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-21
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,682,048
Change: +7,879
Managed Money
-45,917
Change: +29,422
-2.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
2,134
Change: +5,287
0.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
149,713
Change: +4,029
8.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-112,862
Change: -36,088
-6.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-21
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,997,649
Change: -68,941
Managed Money
-38,154
Change: -19,388
-1.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
309,536
Change: +14,091
15.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-364,592
Change: +12,233
-18.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 9.563 EUR/MWh (-0.071). JKM prices decreased to 11.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.065). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.437 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.563
-0.071Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-03
JKM Prices
11.000
-0.065Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-03
JKM-TTF Spread
1.437
15.03%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-03
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.2
10.6
10.1
9.5
9.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.563 |
| FEB 26 | 9.588 |
| MAR 26 | 9.505 |
| APR 26 | 9.258 |
| MAY 26 | 9.161 |
| JUN 26 | 9.184 |
| JUL 26 | 9.219 |
| AUG 26 | 9.260 |
| SEP 26 | 9.358 |
| OCT 26 | 9.425 |
| NOV 26 | 9.612 |
| DEC 26 | 9.726 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.000 |
| FEB 26 | 10.300 |
| MAR 26 | 9.815 |
| APR 26 | 9.330 |
| MAY 26 | 9.255 |
| JUN 26 | 9.380 |
| JUL 26 | 9.545 |
| AUG 26 | 9.675 |
| SEP 26 | 9.655 |
| OCT 26 | 9.685 |
| NOV 26 | 9.720 |
| DEC 26 | 10.060 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.417
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
71
Last Updated:
2025-12-03 23:47:47
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (8 articles)
- Oil rises on geopolitical risks to supply Reuters
- Oil Edges Higher Amid Supply Chain Disruption — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Unica Reports Larger Brazilian Sugar Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s Output Decision Likely Shaped By Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Decision to Assess Maximum Output Capacity Could Spark Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Climbs 2% on OPEC+ Steady Output Plan, Supply Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises After OPEC+ Keeps Output Unchanged Trading Economics
- Oil rises after OPEC+ meeting maintains current output Reuters
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Gain on Dollar Weakness and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Possible Easing of Geopolitical Risks Weighs on Crude Prices Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Unlikely to Change Long-Term Outlook for Oil Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on geopolitical risks to supply Reuters
- Geopolitical Turmoil Supports Crude Oil — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s Output Decision Likely Shaped By Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$5.0
Closest Support:
$4.53
9.4% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$5.01
0.2% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.3
0.382
$3.63
0.5
$3.89
0.618
$4.16
0.786
$4.53
Support
1.0
$5.01
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.62
1.618
$6.39
2.0
$7.25
2.618
$8.63
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.55
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-03 23:47:48
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.08%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | $4.55 | $4.24 | $4.87 |
| 2025-11-26 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-27 | $4.55 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-28 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.85 |
| 2025-11-29 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $4.55.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical interpretation with a score of 1/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 4.53 while resistance is at 5.01. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential breakout opportunities.
The weather outlook suggests high heating demand across most regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which may influence natural gas prices positively. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.08% with a projected range of 4.24 to 4.87. This provides a short-term opportunity for traders to capitalize on potential price movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a negative figure of -8.90 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply which may warrant adjustments in production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies to manage price volatility, especially given the bullish sentiment around crude oil at +0.650.
With heating demand expected to remain high due to the current weather outlook, it may be prudent to optimize production schedules to meet anticipated increases in demand while monitoring geopolitical risks that could affect operations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement as the market sentiment is currently bullish for crude oil and natural gas prices. The weather outlook indicates high heating demand, which could lead to increased prices during peak demand periods.
Additionally, the risks associated with supply reliability should be considered, particularly in light of the negative fundamental balance. Consumers may want to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate the impact of rising prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market presents a bullish sentiment overall, particularly for crude oil and natural gas, with sentiment scores of +0.650 and +0.600 respectively. The fundamental balance of -8.90 BCFD suggests tightening supply conditions that could lead to upward price pressure.
Analysts should focus on the interplay between weather patterns and demand forecasts, as high heating demand is expected to dominate across multiple regions. This could shift market dynamics significantly, warranting close monitoring of price forecasts and sentiment shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.