Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but after December 5th - we are seeing the HDDs dropping….that is not a good sign for bulls. The technical move to $5 is astounding - I expected $5 back in October - but felt this move was WAAAYYY too premature - I want to see the fundamental support - and right now we are more “average” while a move from $4 to $4.90 is not average - the two things can not coexist. At this point, I am halfway expecting a sharp reversal during December - and this will thrust us back down in a big BIG way - like $1-1.50. That said - if the forecasts live up to expectations - we will need to see significant follow through to really see any more upside. This week has been a battle and needless to say it has looked to be at the hands of the bulls for the most part (though the bears had some times that looked like they were going to take control). Let’s be real - the next 4 weeks are cold and really solid cold likely to take 100+ BCF more than the 5 year average, but we are currently 150+ BCF over the 5 year average so is it $5 bullish (the highest prices we have seen since the 2022 spike)? If weather continues to come in cold in late Dec / early Jan - we could see follow through to $6 but we may be sizing up for a big correction down.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-05 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have surged recently, hitting a 3-year high, driven by strong exports and frigid temperatures across the U.S. However, despite this bullish momentum, concerns loom as Heating Degree Days (HDDs) are set to drop after December 5, potentially indicating a reversal. While current forecasts suggest continued cold, market sentiment suggests caution—especially as we're over 150 BCF above the 5-year average. Watch for weather patterns and storage levels to gauge if this bullish trend can hold or if a significant correction is looming.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 25.83 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 34.03 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$5.34
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.84
MA(20): $4.64
Current Price is 5.34, 9 day MA 4.84, 20 day MA 4.64
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.3261
Signal: 0.2942
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 76.04
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 76.04 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 340,274
Avg (20d): 183,272
Ratio: 1.86
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 87.39
%D: 92.92
Stochastic %K: 87.39, %D: 92.92. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 45.0
+DI: 38.79
-DI: 8.26
ADX: 45.0 (+DI: 38.79, -DI: 8.26). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -12.61
Williams %R: -12.61 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 5.18
Middle: 4.64
Lower: 4.11
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 5.18, Middle: 4.64, Lower: 4.11
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.5 | 103.0 | 103.23 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 7.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| Total Supply | 115.5 | 114.8 | 109.7 | 109.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.9 | 20.1 | 25.9 | 25.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 39.6 | 32.4 | 36.3 | 32.57 |
| Residential & Commercial | 50.1 | 37.0 | 45.2 | 39.2 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 19.0 | 14.5 | 13.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 149.53 | 123.7 | 135.9 | 124.0 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -34.03 | -8.9 | -26.2 | -14.67 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
201.0 HDD
+35.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
206.0 HDD
+12.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/27 | 24.0 | 22.0 | +2.0 |
| 11/28 | 27.0 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/29 | 28.0 | 23.0 | +5.0 |
| 11/30 | 29.0 | 24.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/01 | 31.0 | 24.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/02 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/03 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/06 | 28.0 | 27.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/07 | 29.0 | 28.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/08 | 33.0 | 28.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/09 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/10 | 25.0 | 28.0 | -3.0 |
| 12/11 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.99
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
-0.42 (-0.43%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
0.03 (0.75%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6870.4
Daily:
13.28 (0.19%)
Weekly:
57.77 (0.85%)
VIX
15.41
Daily:
-0.37 (-2.34%)
Weekly:
-1.83 (-10.61%)
GOLD
4197.6
Daily:
-14.2 (-0.34%)
Weekly:
-41.7 (-0.98%)
COPPER
5.37
Daily:
0.08 (1.53%)
Weekly:
0.15 (2.94%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-28
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,629,494
Change: -52,554
Managed Money
-41,704
Change: +4,213
-2.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-8,872
Change: -11,006
-0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
147,732
Change: -1,981
9.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-103,592
Change: +9,270
-6.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-28
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,891,657
Change: -105,992
Managed Money
-8,600
Change: +29,554
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
297,846
Change: -11,690
15.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-375,563
Change: -10,971
-19.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 9.340 EUR/MWh (-0.309). JKM prices decreased to 10.900 USD/MMBtu (-0.085). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.560 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.340
-0.309Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-05
JKM Prices
10.900
-0.085Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-05
JKM-TTF Spread
1.560
16.70%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-05
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.1
10.5
10.0
9.4
8.8
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.340 |
| FEB 26 | 9.323 |
| MAR 26 | 9.272 |
| APR 26 | 9.082 |
| MAY 26 | 9.012 |
| JUN 26 | 9.039 |
| JUL 26 | 9.064 |
| AUG 26 | 9.107 |
| SEP 26 | 9.205 |
| OCT 26 | 9.275 |
| NOV 26 | 9.453 |
| DEC 26 | 9.564 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.900 |
| FEB 26 | 10.035 |
| MAR 26 | 9.565 |
| APR 26 | 9.170 |
| MAY 26 | 9.115 |
| JUN 26 | 9.235 |
| JUL 26 | 9.380 |
| AUG 26 | 9.505 |
| SEP 26 | 9.480 |
| OCT 26 | 9.535 |
| NOV 26 | 9.555 |
| DEC 26 | 9.915 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.45
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
83
Last Updated:
2025-12-05 23:47:51
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (9 articles)
- Crude Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Optimism Barchart
- Crude Oil Rallies on Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Demand Optimism Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Find Support from a Weaker Dollar and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil Rises as Geopolitical Frictions Raise Supply Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Gain on Dollar Weakness and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil Prices Rise Amid Lingering Geopolitical Tension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Possible Easing of Geopolitical Risks Weighs on Crude Prices Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Unlikely to Change Long-Term Outlook for Oil Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$5.34
Closest Support:
$4.91
8.05% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$5.5
3.0% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.41
0.382
$3.81
0.5
$4.13
0.618
$4.46
0.786
$4.91
Support
1.0
$5.5
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.24
1.618
$7.18
2.0
$8.22
2.618
$9.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$5.06
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-05 23:47:52
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.5%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | $5.04 | $4.73 | $5.34 |
| 2025-12-06 | $5.04 | $4.74 | $5.35 |
| 2025-12-07 | $5.05 | $4.75 | $5.35 |
| 2025-12-08 | $5.04 | $4.74 | $5.34 |
| 2025-12-09 | $5.04 | $4.73 | $5.34 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.50% for the next trading day (2025-12-05), reaching $5.04.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-05 and 2025-12-09.
- The average confidence interval width is ~12.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 4.91 while resistance is seen at 5.5. This suggests potential price fluctuations within this range.
Despite the bearish ML price forecast predicting a 0.50% decline, the overall market sentiment remains bullish with a sentiment score of +0.417. Traders should watch for volatility around the support and resistance levels, considering short-term opportunities or risks, particularly in the context of heating demand driven by the weather outlook.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at -34.03 BCFD, indicating a significant change of -25.13. This could impact production planning as producers may need to adjust output to align with demand fluctuations.
Market sentiment is largely bullish for crude oil, particularly with a sentiment score of +0.650. Producers should consider leveraging this sentiment in their hedging strategies, especially as geopolitical tensions may affect supply risks. Monitoring news sentiment will be crucial for operational adjustments.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand expected due to the weather outlook, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations. The weather outlook indicates dominant heating degree days (HDD) across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest.
Given the bearish ML price forecast and the fundamental balance, there may be supply reliability risks. Consumers should consider procurement strategies that account for these fluctuations and potentially hedge against rising costs.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a neutral technical interpretation, with key driving factors being the bullish sentiment in crude oil and high heating demand due to weather forecasts. The fundamental balance suggests tightening supply conditions.
Analysts should monitor the interplay between geopolitical factors and market sentiment, as these could lead to significant shifts in the outlook. The current sentiment analysis indicates a cautious optimism, but the recent bearish price prediction should not be overlooked.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.