Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but even throughout December - we are still forecasted to be above the 5 year average - despite closing the gap. We are currently over 150 bcf over the 5 year average and now we are forecasted to close the gap to inside 50. I think traders forgot that we would still be OVER the 5 year average. In my view, any price movement above 5 is forecasting at least two or three more polar vortexes - now that can happen. But when hope and weather are used in the same sentence I get skeptical. Supply is up but not by alot, Canadian imports have held in stronger than I expected, and LNG is topping out deliveries. Oh yea - don’t forget TTF & JKM are dropping in price right now - that’s another bearish pull. This week I am expecting a reversal from what we saw on Friday. This was largely technically motivated.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-07 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices surged 9% this week, driven by strong export flows and frigid US temperatures. Despite this uptick, supply remains robust, with inventories still 150 Bcf above the five-year average. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, as forecasts predict colder weather could spur demand; however, the presence of bearish indicators like declining TTF and JKM prices raises skepticism. Traders should stay vigilant, as the market appears technically motivated with potential reversals on the horizon. Keep an eye on upcoming weather patterns!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 25.83 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 34.03 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$5.14
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.9
MA(20): $4.68
Current Price is 5.14, 9 day MA 4.9, 20 day MA 4.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.324
Signal: 0.2996
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 68.93
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 68.93 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 18,560
Avg (20d): 168,762
Ratio: 0.11
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 71.69
%D: 84.04
Stochastic %K: 71.69, %D: 84.04. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 46.42
+DI: 36.16
-DI: 7.7
ADX: 46.42 (+DI: 36.16, -DI: 7.7). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -28.31
Williams %R: -28.31 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 5.22
Middle: 4.68
Lower: 4.14
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 5.22, Middle: 4.68, Lower: 4.14
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.5 | 103.0 | 103.23 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 7.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| Total Supply | 115.5 | 114.8 | 109.7 | 109.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.9 | 20.1 | 25.9 | 25.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 39.6 | 32.4 | 36.3 | 32.57 |
| Residential & Commercial | 50.1 | 37.0 | 45.2 | 39.2 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 19.0 | 14.5 | 13.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 149.53 | 123.7 | 135.9 | 124.0 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -34.03 | -8.9 | -26.2 | -14.67 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
217.0 HDD
+43.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
202.0 HDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/29 | 28.0 | 23.0 | +5.0 |
| 11/30 | 29.0 | 24.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/01 | 31.0 | 24.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/02 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/03 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/04 | 33.0 | 26.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 32.0 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/09 | 29.0 | 28.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/10 | 23.0 | 28.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/11 | 25.0 | 28.0 | -3.0 |
| 12/12 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/13 | 35.0 | 29.0 | +6.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.89
Daily:
-0.1 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
-0.47 (-0.48%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
0.03 (0.75%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6870.4
Daily:
13.28 (0.19%)
Weekly:
57.77 (0.85%)
VIX
15.41
Daily:
-0.37 (-2.34%)
Weekly:
-1.83 (-10.61%)
GOLD
4240.7
Daily:
27.8 (0.66%)
Weekly:
54.1 (1.29%)
COPPER
5.45
Daily:
0.06 (1.18%)
Weekly:
0.28 (5.51%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-28
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,629,494
Change: -52,554
Managed Money
-41,704
Change: +4,213
-2.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-8,872
Change: -11,006
-0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
147,732
Change: -1,981
9.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-103,592
Change: +9,270
-6.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-28
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,891,657
Change: -105,992
Managed Money
-8,600
Change: +29,554
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
297,846
Change: -11,690
15.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-375,563
Change: -10,971
-19.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.366 EUR/MWh (+0.026). JKM prices decreased to 10.880 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.514 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.366
+0.026Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-07
JKM Prices
10.880
-0.020Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-07
JKM-TTF Spread
1.514
16.16%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-07
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.1
10.5
10.0
9.4
8.8
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.366 |
| FEB 26 | 9.349 |
| MAR 26 | 9.303 |
| APR 26 | 9.104 |
| MAY 26 | 9.028 |
| JUN 26 | 9.043 |
| JUL 26 | 9.066 |
| AUG 26 | 9.115 |
| SEP 26 | 9.213 |
| OCT 26 | 9.287 |
| NOV 26 | 9.473 |
| DEC 26 | 9.577 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.880 |
| FEB 26 | 10.080 |
| MAR 26 | 9.625 |
| APR 26 | 9.185 |
| MAY 26 | 9.135 |
| JUN 26 | 9.245 |
| JUL 26 | 9.385 |
| AUG 26 | 9.500 |
| SEP 26 | 9.500 |
| OCT 26 | 9.555 |
| NOV 26 | 9.580 |
| DEC 26 | 9.935 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.483
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
45
Last Updated:
2025-12-07 23:47:34
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.7
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$5.14
Closest Support:
$4.91
4.47% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$5.5
7.0% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.41
0.382
$3.81
0.5
$4.13
0.618
$4.46
0.786
$4.91
Support
1.0
$5.5
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.24
1.618
$7.18
2.0
$8.22
2.618
$9.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$5.29
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-07 23:47:34
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.37%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | $5.27 | $4.96 | $5.58 |
| 2025-12-07 | $5.29 | $4.98 | $5.59 |
| 2025-12-08 | $5.28 | $4.98 | $5.59 |
| 2025-12-09 | $5.28 | $4.98 | $5.59 |
| 2025-12-10 | $5.27 | $4.96 | $5.58 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.37% for the next trading day (2025-12-06), reaching $5.27.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-06 and 2025-12-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bullish sentiment, with a technical score of 3/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 4.91 and resistance at 5.5. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.37%, signaling potential short-term volatility. Traders may want to monitor price movements closely as they approach these levels for potential entry or exit points.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance is reported at -34.03 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply scenario. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning in response to market sentiment reflected in the news sentiment score of +0.483. This could influence hedging strategies, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions impacting crude oil prices. Staying agile in response to these dynamics will be crucial for optimizing operational efficiency.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating high heating demand across most regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance suggests supply constraints, which could lead to increased prices. Utilities and industrial consumers may want to consider proactive hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with rising costs and ensure supply reliability during peak heating periods.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market currently presents a mixed picture with a bullish sentiment overall, driven by supply concerns and geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil prices. The fundamental balance of -34.03 BCFD highlights tightening supply, while the ML price forecast indicates a potential short-term decline. Analysts should focus on the interplay between these factors to gauge future price movements and market shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.