Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but even throughout December - we are still forecasted to be above the 5 year average - despite closing the gap. We are currently over 150 bcf over the 5 year average and now we are forecasted to close the gap to inside 50. I think traders forgot that we would still be OVER the 5 year average. In my view, any price movement above 5 is forecasting at least two or three more polar vortexes - now that can happen. But when hope and weather are used in the same sentence I get skeptical. Supply is up but not by alot, Canadian imports have held in stronger than I expected, and LNG is topping out deliveries. Oh yea - don’t forget TTF & JKM are dropping in price right now - that’s another bearish pull. This week I am expecting a reversal from what we saw on Friday. This was largely technically motivated. We are starting off the week with a mighty reversal - on Friday we topped 5.49 and here we are Monday morning at 5.04. The key levels that I’m watching are 5.06 and then all the way down to 4.476 (there’s some more downside at 3.96 but I don’t think we’ll move that fast). Last week I expected 4.476 and the bull train kept riding - this week might be when the train ran out of steam. Monday’s selloff was more than dramatic down to 4.86.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-08 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently retreated, dropping over 5% amid warmer weather forecasts, leading traders to take profits after weather-driven highs. Currently, natural gas inventories stand 150 Bcf above the 5-year average, but expectations remain for a close to just 50 Bcf. Despite recent bullish forecasts, concerns linger as supply increases only modestly, Canadian imports remain strong, and LNG deliveries peak. Watch key levels: $5.06 and $4.476 for potential support in this volatile market.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 25.83 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 34.03 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.83
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.86
MA(20): $4.67
Current Price is 4.83, 9 day MA 4.86, 20 day MA 4.67
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.2997
Signal: 0.2947
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 58.72
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 58.72 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,413
Avg (20d): 176,396
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 47.5
%D: 75.98
Stochastic %K: 47.5, %D: 75.98. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 45.02
+DI: 33.76
-DI: 12.72
ADX: 45.02 (+DI: 33.76, -DI: 12.72). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -52.5
Williams %R: -52.5 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 5.17
Middle: 4.67
Lower: 4.16
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 5.17, Middle: 4.67, Lower: 4.16
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.5 | 103.0 | 103.23 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 7.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| Total Supply | 115.5 | 114.8 | 109.7 | 109.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.9 | 20.1 | 25.9 | 25.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 39.6 | 32.4 | 36.3 | 32.57 |
| Residential & Commercial | 50.1 | 37.0 | 45.2 | 39.2 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 19.0 | 14.5 | 13.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 149.53 | 123.7 | 135.9 | 124.0 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -34.03 | -8.9 | -26.2 | -14.67 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
219.0 HDD
+41.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
211.0 HDD
+14.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/30 | 29.0 | 24.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/01 | 31.0 | 24.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/02 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/03 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/04 | 33.0 | 26.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/06 | 30.0 | 27.0 | +3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | 32.0 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/09 | 29.0 | 28.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/10 | 22.0 | 28.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/11 | 26.0 | 28.0 | -2.0 |
| 12/12 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/13 | 36.0 | 29.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/14 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.05
Daily:
0.06 (0.06%)
Weekly:
-0.31 (-0.32%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
0.03 (0.8%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.1%)
SP500
6846.51
Daily:
-23.89 (-0.35%)
Weekly:
17.14 (0.25%)
VIX
16.66
Daily:
1.25 (8.11%)
Weekly:
0.07 (0.42%)
GOLD
4223.0
Daily:
10.1 (0.24%)
Weekly:
36.4 (0.87%)
COPPER
5.41
Daily:
0.03 (0.61%)
Weekly:
0.25 (4.92%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-28
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,629,494
Change: -52,554
Managed Money
-41,704
Change: +4,213
-2.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-8,872
Change: -11,006
-0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
147,732
Change: -1,981
9.1% of OI
Other Reportables
-103,592
Change: +9,270
-6.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-28
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,891,657
Change: -105,992
Managed Money
-8,600
Change: +29,554
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
297,846
Change: -11,690
15.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-375,563
Change: -10,971
-19.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.366 EUR/MWh (+0.026). JKM prices decreased to 10.880 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.514 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.366
+0.026Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-08
JKM Prices
10.880
-0.020Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-08
JKM-TTF Spread
1.514
16.16%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-08
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.1
10.5
10.0
9.4
8.8
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.366 |
| FEB 26 | 9.349 |
| MAR 26 | 9.303 |
| APR 26 | 9.104 |
| MAY 26 | 9.028 |
| JUN 26 | 9.043 |
| JUL 26 | 9.066 |
| AUG 26 | 9.115 |
| SEP 26 | 9.213 |
| OCT 26 | 9.287 |
| NOV 26 | 9.473 |
| DEC 26 | 9.577 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.880 |
| FEB 26 | 10.080 |
| MAR 26 | 9.625 |
| APR 26 | 9.185 |
| MAY 26 | 9.135 |
| JUN 26 | 9.245 |
| JUL 26 | 9.385 |
| AUG 26 | 9.500 |
| SEP 26 | 9.500 |
| OCT 26 | 9.555 |
| NOV 26 | 9.580 |
| DEC 26 | 9.935 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
49
Last Updated:
2025-12-08 23:47:35
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.83
Closest Support:
$4.46
7.66% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.91
1.66% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.41
0.382
$3.81
0.5
$4.13
0.618
$4.46
Support
0.786
$4.91
Resistance
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.24
1.618
$7.18
2.0
$8.22
2.618
$9.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.91
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-08 23:47:35
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.13%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | $4.97 | $4.62 | $5.31 |
| 2025-12-10 | $4.95 | $4.61 | $5.3 |
| 2025-12-11 | $4.94 | $4.6 | $5.29 |
| 2025-12-12 | $4.93 | $4.58 | $5.27 |
| 2025-12-13 | $4.95 | $4.61 | $5.29 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.13% for the next trading day (2025-12-09), reaching $4.97.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-09 and 2025-12-13.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest a moderately bullish sentiment with a technical score of 3/5. Traders should focus on the Fibonacci support level of 4.46 and the resistance level of 4.91. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 1.13%, with a trading range expected between 4.62 and 5.31. However, the overall market sentiment is negative, which may introduce volatility. Short-term opportunities could arise from price fluctuations around these levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance of -34.03 BCFD indicates a tightening market, despite a negative sentiment score of -0.400. Producers should consider adjusting production levels to align with the high heating demand forecasted across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Hedging strategies may need to be revisited given the current bearish sentiment in crude oil and natural gas markets, especially as news sentiment reflects concerns over demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices, particularly with the anticipated high heating demand this season. The weather outlook indicates a strong heating demand, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, which could lead to increased pricing pressure. The overall market sentiment and negative news regarding supply concerns could impact procurement strategies, making it advisable to consider hedging options to mitigate risks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current energy market presents a complex picture with sentiment skewed negatively, particularly for crude oil and natural gas. The fundamental balance suggests tightening supply, while the weather forecasts indicate high heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Analysts should monitor the divergence between technical indicators and market sentiment, as this could signal shifts in demand dynamics and price movements in the upcoming weeks.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.