Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but even throughout December - we are still forecasted to be above the 5 year average - despite closing the gap. We are currently over 150 bcf over the 5 year average and now we are forecasted to close the gap to inside 50. I think traders forgot that we would still be OVER the 5 year average. In my view, any price movement above 5 is forecasting at least two or three more polar vortexes - now that can happen. But when hope and weather are used in the same sentence I get skeptical. Supply is up but not by alot, Canadian imports have held in stronger than I expected, and LNG is topping out deliveries. Oh yea - don’t forget TTF & JKM are dropping in price right now - that’s another bearish pull. This week I am expecting a reversal from what we saw on Friday. This was largely technically motivated. We are starting off the week with a mighty reversal - on Friday we topped 5.49 and here we are Monday morning at 5.04. The key levels that I’m watching are 5.06 and then all the way down to 4.476 (there’s some more downside at 3.96 but I don’t think we’ll move that fast). Last week I expected 4.476 and the bull train kept riding - this week might be when the train ran out of steam. Monday’s selloff was more than dramatic down to 4.86. Tuesday brought the collapse to 4.50s which is right in line with the projection - key question remains will we see follow through to 3.96 or a retracement ?
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-09 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas has seen a recent pullback, dropping over 5% as warmer weather forecasts dampen bullish sentiments. Currently, prices hover around $4.50, influenced by supply levels still exceeding the 5-year average by 150 Bcf. Despite expectations for potential polar vortexes, traders remain skeptical about sustained price increases. Key support levels to watch are $5.06 and $4.476, with a possibility of retracement or further declines. Overall, market dynamics seem to favor caution amid shifting weather and supply trends.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 25.83 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 34.03 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.57
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.89
MA(20): $4.68
Current Price is 4.57, 9 day MA 4.89, 20 day MA 4.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.2628
Signal: 0.2893
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.58
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.58 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,388
Avg (20d): 182,039
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 25.06
%D: 54.11
Stochastic %K: 25.06, %D: 54.11. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 43.58
+DI: 30.65
-DI: 19.03
ADX: 43.58 (+DI: 30.65, -DI: 19.03). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -74.94
Williams %R: -74.94 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.17
Middle: 4.68
Lower: 4.19
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.17, Middle: 4.68, Lower: 4.19
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.5 | 103.0 | 103.23 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 7.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| Total Supply | 115.5 | 114.8 | 109.7 | 109.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.9 | 20.1 | 25.9 | 25.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 39.6 | 32.4 | 36.3 | 32.57 |
| Residential & Commercial | 50.1 | 37.0 | 45.2 | 39.2 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 19.0 | 14.5 | 13.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 149.53 | 123.7 | 135.9 | 124.0 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -34.03 | -8.9 | -26.2 | -14.67 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
218.0 HDD
+36.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
207.0 HDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01 | 31.0 | 24.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/02 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/03 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/04 | 33.0 | 26.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/06 | 30.0 | 27.0 | +3.0 |
| 12/07 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | 29.0 | 28.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/10 | 23.0 | 28.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/11 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/12 | 29.0 | 28.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/13 | 33.0 | 29.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/14 | 34.0 | 28.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/15 | 32.0 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.21
Daily:
0.12 (0.13%)
Weekly:
0.36 (0.37%)
US_10Y
4.19
Daily:
0.01 (0.34%)
Weekly:
0.13 (3.18%)
SP500
6840.51
Daily:
-6.0 (-0.09%)
Weekly:
-9.21 (-0.13%)
VIX
16.93
Daily:
0.27 (1.62%)
Weekly:
0.85 (5.29%)
GOLD
4235.9
Daily:
48.7 (1.16%)
Weekly:
36.6 (0.87%)
COPPER
5.37
Daily:
0.01 (0.09%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.16%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-04
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,576,226
Change: -53,268
Managed Money
-43,986
Change: -2,282
-2.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-11,279
Change: -2,407
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
139,406
Change: -8,326
8.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-97,553
Change: +6,039
-6.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-04
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,924,327
Change: +32,670
Managed Money
7,737
Change: +16,337
0.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
277,216
Change: -20,630
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-361,642
Change: +13,921
-18.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 9.266 EUR/MWh (-0.100). JKM prices decreased to 10.865 USD/MMBtu (-0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.599 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.266
-0.100Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-09
JKM Prices
10.865
-0.015Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-09
JKM-TTF Spread
1.599
17.26%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-09
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.1
10.5
9.9
9.3
8.7
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.266 |
| FEB 26 | 9.188 |
| MAR 26 | 9.137 |
| APR 26 | 8.942 |
| MAY 26 | 8.864 |
| JUN 26 | 8.886 |
| JUL 26 | 8.918 |
| AUG 26 | 8.962 |
| SEP 26 | 9.050 |
| OCT 26 | 9.117 |
| NOV 26 | 9.300 |
| DEC 26 | 9.413 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.865 |
| FEB 26 | 10.170 |
| MAR 26 | 9.420 |
| APR 26 | 8.995 |
| MAY 26 | 8.975 |
| JUN 26 | 9.100 |
| JUL 26 | 9.230 |
| AUG 26 | 9.350 |
| SEP 26 | 9.335 |
| OCT 26 | 9.370 |
| NOV 26 | 9.430 |
| DEC 26 | 9.770 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.467
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
53
Last Updated:
2025-12-09 23:47:35
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.8
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Crude Oil Extends Downturn on Ample Supply Trading Economics
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Soybean Price Support in 2026 Rests on Biofuels Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steadies With Focus on Geopolitical Risks, Fed Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.57
Closest Support:
$4.46
2.41% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.91
7.44% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.41
0.382
$3.81
0.5
$4.13
0.618
$4.46
Support
0.786
$4.91
Resistance
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.24
1.618
$7.18
2.0
$8.22
2.618
$9.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.57
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-09 23:47:36
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.59%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-10 | $4.6 | $4.23 | $4.97 |
| 2025-12-11 | $4.58 | $4.21 | $4.95 |
| 2025-12-12 | $4.56 | $4.19 | $4.93 |
| 2025-12-13 | $4.58 | $4.21 | $4.95 |
| 2025-12-14 | $4.59 | $4.22 | $4.97 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.59% for the next trading day (2025-12-10), reaching $4.60.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-10 and 2025-12-14.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest a neutral outlook, with a technical score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 4.46, while resistance is noted at 4.91. Given the fundamental balance of -34.03 BCFD and a significant change of -25.13, traders should be cautious. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.59%, suggesting short-term opportunities for upward movements within the range of 4.23 to 4.97. However, the bearish news sentiment, particularly for natural gas at -0.800, indicates potential volatility and risk in trading positions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current bearish sentiment across the market, particularly with a sentiment score of -0.700 for crude oil, suggests that producers may face challenges in pricing power. The fundamental balance indicates a negative trend, which could impact production planning and operational efficiencies. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. Furthermore, with high heating demand expected in the Northeast and Midwest, there may be opportunities to optimize production schedules to meet regional needs while being mindful of the weather outlook that favors heating over cooling.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the current bearish market sentiment and a fundamental balance of -34.03 BCFD, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The expected high heating demand, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, may lead to increased prices during peak periods. Consumers should assess their procurement strategies and consider locking in prices where feasible to hedge against volatility. The low cooling demand forecasted indicates that there may be less competition for resources, but the overall market conditions necessitate vigilance regarding supply reliability risks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market exhibits a complex interplay of factors leading to a bearish sentiment overall, with a sentiment score of -0.500. The significant negative balance of -34.03 BCFD coupled with low cooling demand suggests that heating-related markets may dominate in the short term. Analysts should closely monitor the weather outlook and its impact on demand, particularly in heating regions. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement, but the prevailing bearish sentiment and geopolitical concerns may lead to shifts in market dynamics. Continuous assessment of news sentiment and regional patterns will be crucial for accurate forecasting.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.