Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but even throughout December - we are still forecasted to be above the 5 year average - despite closing the gap. We are currently over 150 bcf over the 5 year average and now we are forecasted to close the gap to inside 50. I think traders forgot that we would still be OVER the 5 year average. In my view, any price movement above 5 is forecasting at least two or three more polar vortexes - now that can happen. But when hope and weather are used in the same sentence I get skeptical. Supply is up but not by alot, Canadian imports have held in stronger than I expected, and LNG is topping out deliveries. Oh yea - don’t forget TTF & JKM are dropping in price right now - that’s another bearish pull. This week I am expecting a reversal from what we saw on Friday. This was largely technically motivated. We are starting off the week with a mighty reversal - on Friday we topped 5.49 and here we are Monday morning at 5.04. The key levels that I’m watching are 5.06 and then all the way down to 4.476 (there’s some more downside at 3.96 but I don’t think we’ll move that fast). Last week I expected 4.476 and the bull train kept riding - this week might be when the train ran out of steam. Monday’s selloff was more than dramatic down to 4.86. Tuesday brought the collapse to 4.50s which is right in line with the projection - key question remains will we see follow through to 3.96 or a retracement ?
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-10 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are experiencing a rollercoaster ride, currently retreating as warmer weather forecasts loom. Despite bullish projections, current levels remain over 150 Bcf above the five-year average, with a forecasted gap closure to within 50 Bcf. Recent market activity saw prices plummet from $5.49 to $4.50, raising concerns about a potential continuation downward. Watch for key levels at 5.06 and 4.476, as traders grapple with weather uncertainties and fluctuating LNG deliveries. The market's sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, but skepticism lingers.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 25.83 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 34.03 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.61
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.89
MA(20): $4.68
Current Price is 4.61, 9 day MA 4.89, 20 day MA 4.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.2287
Signal: 0.2772
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.41
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.41 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,389
Avg (20d): 182,279
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 27.91
%D: 35.53
Stochastic %K: 27.91, %D: 35.53. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 42.02
+DI: 30.03
-DI: 19.0
ADX: 42.02 (+DI: 30.03, -DI: 19.0). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -72.09
Williams %R: -72.09 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.17
Middle: 4.68
Lower: 4.19
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.17, Middle: 4.68, Lower: 4.19
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.5 | 103.0 | 103.23 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 7.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| Total Supply | 115.5 | 114.8 | 109.7 | 109.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.9 | 20.1 | 25.9 | 25.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 39.6 | 32.4 | 36.3 | 32.57 |
| Residential & Commercial | 50.1 | 37.0 | 45.2 | 39.2 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 19.0 | 14.5 | 13.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 149.53 | 123.7 | 135.9 | 124.0 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -34.03 | -8.9 | -26.2 | -14.67 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
219.0 HDD
+33.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
204.0 HDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/03 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/04 | 33.0 | 26.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/06 | 30.0 | 27.0 | +3.0 |
| 12/07 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 32.0 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | 23.0 | 28.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/11 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/12 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/13 | 29.0 | 29.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 33.0 | 28.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/15 | 34.0 | 28.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/16 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.69
Daily:
-0.53 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
-0.3 (-0.3%)
US_10Y
4.16
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.36%)
SP500
6886.68
Daily:
46.17 (0.67%)
Weekly:
29.56 (0.43%)
VIX
15.77
Daily:
-1.16 (-6.85%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.06%)
GOLD
4241.1
Daily:
34.4 (0.82%)
Weekly:
29.3 (0.7%)
COPPER
5.38
Daily:
0.14 (2.6%)
Weekly:
0.09 (1.62%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-10
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,535,138
Change: -41,088
Managed Money
-52,820
Change: -8,834
-3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-13,043
Change: -1,764
-0.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
138,579
Change: -827
9.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-87,209
Change: +10,344
-5.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-10
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,913,442
Change: -10,885
Managed Money
-11,646
Change: -19,383
-0.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
271,318
Change: -5,898
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-343,202
Change: +18,440
-17.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.411 EUR/MWh (+0.145). JKM prices decreased to 10.850 USD/MMBtu (-0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.439 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.411
+0.145Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-10
JKM Prices
10.850
-0.015Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-10
JKM-TTF Spread
1.439
15.29%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-10
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.0
10.5
9.9
9.4
8.8
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.411 |
| FEB 26 | 9.381 |
| MAR 26 | 9.317 |
| APR 26 | 9.096 |
| MAY 26 | 9.004 |
| JUN 26 | 9.022 |
| JUL 26 | 9.049 |
| AUG 26 | 9.092 |
| SEP 26 | 9.183 |
| OCT 26 | 9.242 |
| NOV 26 | 9.413 |
| DEC 26 | 9.523 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.850 |
| FEB 26 | 10.055 |
| MAR 26 | 9.550 |
| APR 26 | 9.145 |
| MAY 26 | 9.100 |
| JUN 26 | 9.230 |
| JUL 26 | 9.365 |
| AUG 26 | 9.490 |
| SEP 26 | 9.480 |
| OCT 26 | 9.495 |
| NOV 26 | 9.520 |
| DEC 26 | 9.880 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.333
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
80
Last Updated:
2025-12-10 23:48:00
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Weakens on Oversupply Concerns Barchart
- Crude Oil Extends Downturn on Ample Supply Trading Economics
- Oil Oversupply to Show Up As Waterborne Stocks Land — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Soybean Price Support in 2026 Rests on Biofuels Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steadies With Focus on Geopolitical Risks, Fed Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.61
Closest Support:
$4.46
3.25% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.91
6.51% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.41
0.382
$3.81
0.5
$4.13
0.618
$4.46
Support
0.786
$4.91
Resistance
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.24
1.618
$7.18
2.0
$8.22
2.618
$9.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.59
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-10 23:48:01
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.43%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | $4.58 | $4.26 | $4.89 |
| 2025-12-12 | $4.55 | $4.24 | $4.86 |
| 2025-12-13 | $4.57 | $4.26 | $4.88 |
| 2025-12-14 | $4.59 | $4.28 | $4.9 |
| 2025-12-15 | $4.59 | $4.27 | $4.9 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.43% for the next trading day (2025-12-11), reaching $4.58.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-11 and 2025-12-15.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data indicates a neutral technical outlook with a score of 1/5, suggesting limited momentum in price movement. Key Fibonacci support is at 4.46 and resistance at 4.91. The fundamental balance is negative at -34.03 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation, albeit with a significant change of -25.13. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 0.43%, with a trading range of 4.26 to 4.89. Traders should be cautious of volatility and consider short-term trading strategies around the identified support and resistance levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current bearish sentiment reflected in the news and market sentiment scores (overall score of -0.333) may impact production planning. With a fundamental balance of -34.03 BCFD, producers should consider adjusting their output to align with market demand. The negative sentiment surrounding oversupply concerns in crude oil could influence hedging strategies, suggesting a need for caution in future contracts. The high heating demand forecasted indicates potential opportunities for natural gas producers to optimize their supply chains.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating a strong heating demand (HDD of 20.2), consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The bearish sentiment in the market may lead to temporary price reductions, but the overall supply-demand balance suggests that prices could rebound. It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging against potential supply reliability risks, especially given the negative fundamental balance.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by bearish sentiment across multiple sectors, particularly in crude oil and natural gas. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, while the weather outlook suggests high heating demand across most regions. Analysts should focus on the implications of the ML price forecast predicting a short-term decline, as well as the potential for shifts in market dynamics due to geopolitical factors and infrastructure developments. Identifying the strongest driving factors will be crucial for forecasting future trends.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.