Natural Gas Radar

2025-12-11 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 12/11/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but even throughout December - we are still forecasted to be above the 5 year average - despite closing the gap. We are currently over 150 bcf over the 5 year average and now we are forecasted to close the gap to inside 50. I think traders forgot that we would still be OVER the 5 year average. In my view, any price movement above 5 is forecasting at least two or three more polar vortexes - now that can happen. But when hope and weather are used in the same sentence I get skeptical. Supply is up but not by alot, Canadian imports have held in stronger than I expected, and LNG is topping out deliveries. Oh yea - don’t forget TTF & JKM are dropping in price right now - that’s another bearish pull. This week I am expecting a reversal from what we saw on Friday. This was largely technically motivated. We are starting off the week with a mighty reversal - on Friday we topped 5.49 and here we are Monday morning at 5.04. The key levels that I’m watching are 5.06 and then all the way down to 4.476 (there’s some more downside at 3.96 but I don’t think we’ll move that fast). Last week I expected 4.476 and the bull train kept riding - this week might be when the train ran out of steam. Monday’s selloff was more than dramatic down to 4.86. Tuesday brought the collapse to 4.50s which is right in line with the projection - key question remains will we see follow through to 3.96 or a retracement ? Ending Thursday in the 4.20s looks more like an attempt to break down below 4

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-12-11 23:46:48 Length: 518 chars
Natural gas prices are feeling the chill, recently hitting a five-week low due to warmer weather forecasts, which have traders rethinking bullish positions. Despite forecasts indicating a continued gap above the five-year average, supply is rising, and LNG deliveries are plateauing. The market is watching key support levels around $4.50 and potential downside to $3.96. With a mix of storage withdrawals and demand uncertainties, caution is advised—especially if weather hopes turn into a frosty reality. Stay tuned!

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.23 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 27.0 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 2 (Moderately Bullish)
Current Price: $4.22
Signal: Moderately Bullish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $4.82

MA(20): $4.67

Current Price is 4.22, 9 day MA 4.82, 20 day MA 4.67

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.1677

Signal: 0.2551

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.54

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.54 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 4,574

Avg (20d): 187,376

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 1.17

%D: 17.61

Stochastic %K: 1.17, %D: 17.61. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 38.63

+DI: 25.54

-DI: 25.15

ADX: 38.63 (+DI: 25.54, -DI: 25.15). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -98.83

Williams %R: -98.83 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 5.19

Middle: 4.67

Lower: 4.14

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.19, Middle: 4.67, Lower: 4.14

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 108.8 108.5 103.8 103.0
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.07
Canadian Imports 6.5 7.0 6.6 5.77
Total Supply 115.3 115.5 110.5 108.87
Industrial Demand 24.7 25.9 25.4 24.83
Electric Power Demand 41.7 39.6 35.4 32.8
Residential & Commercial 42.3 50.1 39.3 35.9
LNG Exports 18.5 18.7 14.2 13.37
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.17
Pipeline Fuel 8.83 8.83 7.8 7.63
Total Demand 142.3 149.53 128.6 120.73
Supply/Demand Balance -27.0 -34.03 -18.1 -11.87

Weather Analysis

Natural Gas Weather Impact: HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand) (Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)

Weather Analysis Summary

Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days: 218.0 HDD +29.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days: 209.0 HDD +10.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days: 0.0 CDD +0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days: 0.0 CDD +0.0 vs Normal

Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)

HDD Analysis
HDD Analysis Chart
CDD Analysis
CDD Analysis Chart
× Zoomed Chart

Detailed Data

Recent HDD Data
Date HDD Normal Anomaly
12/03 31.0 25.0 +6.0
12/04 33.0 26.0 +7.0
12/05 34.0 27.0 +7.0
12/06 30.0 27.0 +3.0
12/07 28.0 28.0 +0.0
12/08 32.0 28.0 +4.0
12/09 30.0 28.0 +2.0
HDD Forecast
Date HDD Normal Anomaly
12/11 28.0 28.0 +0.0
12/12 28.0 28.0 +0.0
12/13 31.0 29.0 +2.0
12/14 35.0 28.0 +7.0
12/15 34.0 28.0 +6.0
12/16 29.0 29.0 +0.0
12/17 24.0 29.0 -5.0
Recent CDD Data
Date CDD Normal Anomaly
12/03 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/04 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/05 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/06 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/07 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/08 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/09 0.0 0.0 +0.0
CDD Forecast
Date CDD Normal Anomaly
12/11 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/12 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/13 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/14 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/15 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/16 0.0 0.0 +0.0
12/17 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Region: CONUS Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.38
Daily: -0.41 (-0.41%)
Weekly: -0.61 (-0.62%)

US_10Y

4.14
Daily: -0.02 (-0.55%)
Weekly: 0.0 (0.05%)

SP500

6901.0
Daily: 14.32 (0.21%)
Weekly: 30.6 (0.45%)

VIX

14.85
Daily: -0.92 (-5.83%)
Weekly: -0.56 (-3.63%)

GOLD

4297.4
Daily: 101.0 (2.41%)
Weekly: 84.5 (2.01%)

COPPER

5.47
Daily: 0.2 (3.7%)
Weekly: 0.09 (1.64%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-11-10
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,535,138
Change: -41,088

Managed Money

-52,820
Change: -8,834
-3.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-13,043
Change: -1,764
-0.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

138,579
Change: -827
9.0% of OI

Other Reportables

-87,209
Change: +10,344
-5.7% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-11-10
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,913,442
Change: -10,885

Managed Money

-11,646
Change: -19,383
-0.6% of OI

Producer/Merchant

271,318
Change: -5,898
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-343,202
Change: +18,440
-17.9% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 9.228 EUR/MWh (-0.183). JKM prices decreased to 10.775 USD/MMBtu (-0.075). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.547 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

9.228

-0.183

Front month: JAN 26

As of 2025-12-11

JKM Prices

10.775

-0.075

Front month: JAN 26

As of 2025-12-11

JKM-TTF Spread

1.547

16.76%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-12-11

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.0
10.4
9.8
9.2
8.6
9.23
10.78
JAN 26
9.08
9.62
FEB 26
9.04
9.22
MAR 26
8.84
8.86
APR 26
8.76
8.84
MAY 26
8.77
8.95
JUN 26
8.80
9.10
JUL 26
8.85
9.24
AUG 26
8.94
9.21
SEP 26
9.00
9.28
OCT 26
9.18
9.28
NOV 26
9.29
9.62
DEC 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
JAN 26 9.228
FEB 26 9.084
MAR 26 9.036
APR 26 8.841
MAY 26 8.756
JUN 26 8.774
JUL 26 8.800
AUG 26 8.845
SEP 26 8.942
OCT 26 9.001
NOV 26 9.182
DEC 26 9.291
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
JAN 26 10.775
FEB 26 9.620
MAR 26 9.225
APR 26 8.860
MAY 26 8.835
JUN 26 8.950
JUL 26 9.100
AUG 26 9.240
SEP 26 9.210
OCT 26 9.275
NOV 26 9.280
DEC 26 9.615

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.483
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 100
Last Updated: 2025-12-11 23:47:43

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

NATURAL_GAS

-0.75

HEATING_OIL

0.0

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (3 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.22
Closest Support: $4.13 2.13% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.46 5.69% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.77
0.236 $3.41
0.382 $3.81
0.5 $4.13 Support
0.618 $4.46 Resistance
0.786 $4.91
1.0 $5.5

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $6.24
1.618 $7.18
2.0 $8.22
2.618 $9.9

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.23
Forecast Generated: 2025-12-11 23:47:44
Next Trading Day: UP 0.18%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-12-12 $4.24 $3.9 $4.57
2025-12-13 $4.25 $3.92 $4.59
2025-12-14 $4.25 $3.92 $4.59
2025-12-15 $4.25 $3.92 $4.59
2025-12-16 $4.28 $3.94 $4.61

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2025-12-12), reaching $4.24.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-12 and 2025-12-16.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions suggest a moderately bullish sentiment with a technical score of 2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 4.13, while resistance is at 4.46. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility, particularly as the ML price forecast indicates a slight uptick of 0.18%, with a range between 3.90 and 4.57. Monitor for short-term opportunities, especially if prices approach resistance levels.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance indicates a deficit of -27.00 BCFD, with a notable change of +7.03. This suggests tightening supply, which may impact production planning. The overall market sentiment is negative, particularly for natural gas with a sentiment score of -0.750. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and negative sentiment.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the weather forecast indicating high heating demand, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The overall market sentiment is negative, which could affect pricing strategies. Additionally, the fundamental balance indicates a tighter supply, suggesting that consumers may face reliability risks in supply. Consider evaluating procurement strategies or hedging options to manage these risks effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market picture reflects a bearish sentiment overall, with significant concerns surrounding supply and demand dynamics. The fundamental balance is negative, and the news sentiment is also predominantly bearish, particularly for oil and natural gas. The high heating demand forecast may provide some support, but the overall outlook remains cautious. Analysts should monitor these driving factors closely, as shifts in sentiment or weather patterns could lead to significant market changes.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved