Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but even throughout December - we are still forecasted to be above the 5 year average - despite closing the gap. We are currently over 150 bcf over the 5 year average and now we are forecasted to close the gap to inside 50. I think traders forgot that we would still be OVER the 5 year average. In my view, any price movement above 5 is forecasting at least two or three more polar vortexes - now that can happen. But when hope and weather are used in the same sentence I get skeptical. Supply is up but not by alot, Canadian imports have held in stronger than I expected, and LNG is topping out deliveries. Oh yea - don’t forget TTF & JKM are dropping in price right now - that’s another bearish pull. This week I am expecting a reversal from what we saw on Friday. This was largely technically motivated. We are starting off the week with a mighty reversal - on Friday we topped 5.49 and here we are Monday morning at 5.04. The key levels that I’m watching are 5.06 and then all the way down to 4.476 (there’s some more downside at 3.96 but I don’t think we’ll move that fast). Last week I expected 4.476 and the bull train kept riding - this week might be when the train ran out of steam. Monday’s selloff was more than dramatic down to 4.86. Tuesday brought the collapse to 4.50s which is right in line with the projection - key question remains will we see follow through to 3.96 or a retracement ? Ending the week just above 4 leads to questions on whether we will retrace to 4.476 or head down to 3.96 for unfinished business.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-12 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently taken a tumble, hitting a five-week low, primarily driven by forecasts of above-average US temperatures and increased supply. Currently, stocks are over 150 Bcf above the five-year average, yet traders remain hopeful for colder weather, which might not materialize. Key levels to watch are 5.06 and 4.476, with the potential for a further decline to 3.96. As the market grapples with warm forecasts and supply dynamics, sentiment remains cautious, urging traders to keep an eye on weather patterns and storage data.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.23 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 27.0 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.1
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.73
MA(20): $4.64
Current Price is 4.1, 9 day MA 4.73, 20 day MA 4.64
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.1096
Signal: 0.2261
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.13
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.13 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 188,647
Avg (20d): 200,922
Ratio: 0.94
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 2.52
%D: 10.63
Stochastic %K: 2.52, %D: 10.63. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 36.31
+DI: 23.9
-DI: 27.41
ADX: 36.31 (+DI: 23.9, -DI: 27.41). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -97.48
Williams %R: -97.48 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.22
Middle: 4.64
Lower: 4.06
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.22, Middle: 4.64, Lower: 4.06
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.8 | 108.5 | 103.8 | 103.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 5.77 |
| Total Supply | 115.3 | 115.5 | 110.5 | 108.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 24.7 | 25.9 | 25.4 | 24.83 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.7 | 39.6 | 35.4 | 32.8 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.3 | 50.1 | 39.3 | 35.9 |
| LNG Exports | 18.5 | 18.7 | 14.2 | 13.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.17 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 142.3 | 149.53 | 128.6 | 120.73 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -27.0 | -34.03 | -18.1 | -11.87 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
214.0 HDD
+22.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
200.0 HDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04 | 33.0 | 26.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/06 | 30.0 | 27.0 | +3.0 |
| 12/07 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 32.0 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/09 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/10 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/14 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/15 | 35.0 | 28.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/16 | 28.0 | 29.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/17 | 23.0 | 29.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.39
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.7 (-0.7%)
US_10Y
4.19
Daily:
0.05 (1.28%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.53%)
SP500
6827.41
Daily:
-73.59 (-1.07%)
Weekly:
-19.1 (-0.28%)
VIX
15.74
Daily:
0.89 (5.99%)
Weekly:
-0.92 (-5.52%)
GOLD
4329.8
Daily:
44.3 (1.03%)
Weekly:
142.6 (3.41%)
COPPER
5.36
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.26%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.11%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-18
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,506,695
Change: -28,443
Managed Money
-59,654
Change: -6,834
-4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-20,242
Change: -7,199
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
142,900
Change: +4,321
9.5% of OI
Other Reportables
-78,065
Change: +9,144
-5.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-18
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,868,023
Change: -45,419
Managed Money
-12,671
Change: -1,025
-0.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
276,037
Change: +4,719
14.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-356,338
Change: -13,136
-19.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.318 EUR/MWh (+0.090). JKM prices decreased to 10.745 USD/MMBtu (-0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.427 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.318
+0.090Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-12
JKM Prices
10.745
-0.030Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-12
JKM-TTF Spread
1.427
15.31%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-12
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.9
10.4
9.8
9.3
8.7
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.318 |
| FEB 26 | 9.223 |
| MAR 26 | 9.171 |
| APR 26 | 8.970 |
| MAY 26 | 8.886 |
| JUN 26 | 8.905 |
| JUL 26 | 8.924 |
| AUG 26 | 8.972 |
| SEP 26 | 9.069 |
| OCT 26 | 9.118 |
| NOV 26 | 9.302 |
| DEC 26 | 9.406 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.745 |
| FEB 26 | 9.610 |
| MAR 26 | 9.265 |
| APR 26 | 8.950 |
| MAY 26 | 8.930 |
| JUN 26 | 9.050 |
| JUL 26 | 9.210 |
| AUG 26 | 9.355 |
| SEP 26 | 9.330 |
| OCT 26 | 9.380 |
| NOV 26 | 9.405 |
| DEC 26 | 9.735 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.483
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
96
Last Updated:
2025-12-12 23:47:54
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.75
NATURAL_GAS
-0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Oil posts weekly loss on oversupply concerns Reuters
- Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Pressured by Oversupply Prospects — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Weakens on Oversupply Concerns Barchart
- Crude Futures Edge Up Ahead of U.S. Inventory Data — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Extends Downturn on Ample Supply Trading Economics
Demand (1 articles)
- Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.1
Closest Support:
$3.81
7.07% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.13
0.73% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.41
0.382
$3.81
Support
0.5
$4.13
Resistance
0.618
$4.46
0.786
$4.91
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.24
1.618
$7.18
2.0
$8.22
2.618
$9.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.23
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-12 23:47:54
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.17%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | $4.24 | $3.9 | $4.57 |
| 2025-12-13 | $4.25 | $3.92 | $4.59 |
| 2025-12-14 | $4.25 | $3.92 | $4.59 |
| 2025-12-15 | $4.25 | $3.92 | $4.59 |
| 2025-12-16 | $4.27 | $3.94 | $4.61 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.17% for the next trading day (2025-12-12), reaching $4.24.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-12 and 2025-12-16.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral stance with a Fibonacci support at 3.81 and resistance at 4.13. The fundamental balance is slightly bearish at -27.00 BCFD, indicating potential price pressure. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.17%, suggesting short-term trading opportunities. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish, which could lead to increased volatility. Monitor the support and resistance levels closely for potential breakout or reversal patterns.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of -27.00 BCFD coupled with bearish market sentiment may pressure production decisions. Producers should consider adjusting their output in response to the high heating demand expected in the Northeast and Midwest, as indicated by the weather outlook. Given the negative news sentiment surrounding supply concerns, hedging strategies may need to be revisited to mitigate potential losses from price fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand anticipated, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The bearish sentiment in the market may lead to price volatility, which necessitates careful procurement strategies. Consider locking in prices where possible to hedge against expected price increases due to the fundamental balance indicating tighter supplies.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market displays a complex picture with a neutral technical outlook and a bearish overall sentiment. The key driving factors include the fundamental balance showing a deficit of -27.00 BCFD and high heating demand due to weather forecasts. Analysts should monitor regional heating demands and the impact of weather on supply dynamics, as these will be pivotal in shaping market trends moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.