Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but even throughout December - we are still forecasted to be above the 5 year average - despite closing the gap. We are currently over 150 bcf over the 5 year average and now we are forecasted to close the gap to inside 50. I think traders forgot that we would still be OVER the 5 year average. In my view, any price movement above 5 is forecasting at least two or three more polar vortexes - now that can happen. But when hope and weather are used in the same sentence I get skeptical. Supply is up but not by alot, Canadian imports have held in stronger than I expected, and LNG is topping out deliveries. Oh yea - don’t forget TTF & JKM are dropping in price right now - that’s another bearish pull. This week I am expecting a reversal from what we saw on Friday. This was largely technically motivated. We are starting off the week with a mighty reversal - on Friday we topped 5.49 and here we are Monday morning at 5.04. The key levels that I’m watching are 5.06 and then all the way down to 4.476 (there’s some more downside at 3.96 but I don’t think we’ll move that fast). Last week I expected 4.476 and the bull train kept riding - this week might be when the train ran out of steam. Monday’s selloff was more than dramatic down to 4.86. Tuesday brought the collapse to 4.50s which is right in line with the projection - key question remains will we see follow through to 3.96 or a retracement ? Ending the week just above 4 leads to questions on whether we will retrace to 4.476 or head down to 3.96 for unfinished business.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-13 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, recently hitting a five-week low as forecasts predict above-average US temperatures. Despite bullish forecasts earlier, current supply levels remain over 150 Bcf above the five-year average. Traders seem to overlook that we could still remain above this average even if prices dip further. A key level to watch is 4.476; a break below could indicate unfinished business at 3.96. As weather patterns shift, sentiment remains cautious with potential for reversal or continued decline.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.23 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 27.0 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.11
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.73
MA(20): $4.64
Current Price is 4.11, 9 day MA 4.73, 20 day MA 4.64
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.1106
Signal: 0.2263
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.35
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.35 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 287,859
Avg (20d): 205,883
Ratio: 1.4
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 3.35
%D: 10.91
Stochastic %K: 3.35, %D: 10.91. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 36.31
+DI: 23.9
-DI: 27.41
ADX: 36.31 (+DI: 23.9, -DI: 27.41). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -96.65
Williams %R: -96.65 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.22
Middle: 4.64
Lower: 4.06
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.22, Middle: 4.64, Lower: 4.06
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.8 | 108.5 | 103.8 | 103.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 5.77 |
| Total Supply | 115.3 | 115.5 | 110.5 | 108.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 24.7 | 25.9 | 25.4 | 24.83 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.7 | 39.6 | 35.4 | 32.8 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.3 | 50.1 | 39.3 | 35.9 |
| LNG Exports | 18.5 | 18.7 | 14.2 | 13.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.17 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 142.3 | 149.53 | 128.6 | 120.73 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -27.0 | -34.03 | -18.1 | -11.87 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
208.0 HDD
+14.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
191.0 HDD
-13.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/06 | 30.0 | 27.0 | +3.0 |
| 12/07 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 32.0 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/09 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/10 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/11 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/13 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/14 | 35.0 | 28.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/15 | 34.0 | 28.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/16 | 28.0 | 29.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/17 | 22.0 | 29.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/18 | 19.0 | 30.0 | -11.0 |
| 12/19 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.39
Daily:
0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.7 (-0.7%)
US_10Y
4.19
Daily:
0.05 (1.28%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.53%)
SP500
6827.41
Daily:
-73.59 (-1.07%)
Weekly:
-19.1 (-0.28%)
VIX
15.74
Daily:
0.89 (5.99%)
Weekly:
-0.92 (-5.52%)
GOLD
4300.1
Daily:
14.6 (0.34%)
Weekly:
112.9 (2.7%)
COPPER
5.28
Daily:
-0.14 (-2.64%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.51%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-18
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,506,695
Change: -28,443
Managed Money
-59,654
Change: -6,834
-4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-20,242
Change: -7,199
-1.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
142,900
Change: +4,321
9.5% of OI
Other Reportables
-78,065
Change: +9,144
-5.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-18
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,868,023
Change: -45,419
Managed Money
-12,671
Change: -1,025
-0.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
276,037
Change: +4,719
14.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-356,338
Change: -13,136
-19.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.468 EUR/MWh (+0.150). JKM prices decreased to 10.700 USD/MMBtu (-0.045). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.232 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.468
+0.150Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-13
JKM Prices
10.700
-0.045Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-13
JKM-TTF Spread
1.232
13.01%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-13
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.9
10.4
9.9
9.4
8.9
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.468 |
| FEB 26 | 9.481 |
| MAR 26 | 9.418 |
| APR 26 | 9.178 |
| MAY 26 | 9.074 |
| JUN 26 | 9.083 |
| JUL 26 | 9.110 |
| AUG 26 | 9.153 |
| SEP 26 | 9.249 |
| OCT 26 | 9.297 |
| NOV 26 | 9.475 |
| DEC 26 | 9.583 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.700 |
| FEB 26 | 9.840 |
| MAR 26 | 9.450 |
| APR 26 | 9.155 |
| MAY 26 | 9.105 |
| JUN 26 | 9.200 |
| JUL 26 | 9.370 |
| AUG 26 | 9.515 |
| SEP 26 | 9.490 |
| OCT 26 | 9.520 |
| NOV 26 | 9.535 |
| DEC 26 | 9.865 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.433
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
74
Last Updated:
2025-12-13 23:47:34
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Oil posts weekly loss on oversupply concerns Reuters
- Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Pressured by Oversupply Prospects — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Weakens on Oversupply Concerns Barchart
- Crude Futures Edge Up Ahead of U.S. Inventory Data — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
- Oil Futures Move Lower on Supply-Demand Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.11
Closest Support:
$3.81
7.3% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.13
0.49% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.41
0.382
$3.81
Support
0.5
$4.13
Resistance
0.618
$4.46
0.786
$4.91
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.24
1.618
$7.18
2.0
$8.22
2.618
$9.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.11
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-13 23:47:34
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.59%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | $4.14 | $3.8 | $4.47 |
| 2025-12-14 | $4.13 | $3.8 | $4.47 |
| 2025-12-15 | $4.13 | $3.79 | $4.46 |
| 2025-12-16 | $4.15 | $3.82 | $4.49 |
| 2025-12-17 | $4.16 | $3.82 | $4.49 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.59% for the next trading day (2025-12-13), reaching $4.14.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-13 and 2025-12-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators show a neutral technical sentiment with a score of 1/5. Key Fibonacci levels are identified at 3.81 (support) and 4.13 (resistance). The fundamental balance is at -27.00 BCFD with a change of +7.03, indicating some tightening in supply. The weather outlook suggests high heating demand across most regions, with the Northeast and Midwest experiencing the highest heating degree days (HDD). Despite this, the overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.433. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.59%, suggesting short-term volatility. Traders should watch for price movements near Fibonacci levels for potential entry points.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for natural gas (-0.600) and crude oil (-0.700), signals potential challenges for production planning. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, which may create opportunities for hedging strategies to protect against price declines. However, with the heating demand forecasted to be high, producers should consider aligning production schedules to maximize output during peak demand periods. Additionally, the negative news sentiment surrounding oversupply concerns may affect market perceptions, necessitating proactive communication strategies to reassure stakeholders.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating high heating demand and low cooling demand, consumers in the residential and commercial sectors should prepare for potential volatility in energy costs. The fundamental balance suggests a tightening supply situation, which could lead to price fluctuations. The bearish sentiment in the market, particularly regarding natural gas, indicates that consumers should consider procurement strategies that account for possible price increases. Monitoring weather forecasts will be crucial for adjusting consumption patterns and managing costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment across key commodities, with a sentiment score averaging around -0.433. The fundamental balance shows a shift towards tighter supply, which could influence pricing dynamics in the near term. The weather outlook suggests increased heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, potentially offsetting some bearish pressures. Analysts should focus on the convergence of these factors, particularly the impact of weather and supply trends on pricing forecasts, while keeping an eye on sentiment shifts that may signal changes in market direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.