Nat Gas is caught between a rock and a hard place as over the last couple of months has gotten weaker on demand with weak fall demand. Last weeks storage draw of 177 was really a biggie but not unexpected. The next few weeks look tepid on demand which brings into question whether we are going to have a lot of polar vortex activity or very little - according to meteorologists, the chances are roughly equal. The 5 year average storage exit for this winter is 1.6 TCF and we are currently on path (assuming historicals line up) to exit around 1.7 (our models show 1.8 based on 3 year averages). After the colossal drop last week, we look ahead with a question - will we pierce $4 and drop to 3.965 which is the next technical benchmark or retrace a bit higher after that massive drop? If 3.965 drops we are headed to the mid $3s.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-15 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas faces a challenging landscape as demand weakens amid unseasonably warm weather forecasts, pushing prices below $4/MMBtu. Recent storage draws, such as last week's 177 Bcf, indicate pressure, yet the market is on track for a 1.7 TCF exit this winter, slightly above the 5-year average. With critical benchmarks at $4 and $3.965, the market could pivot either way. Meteorologists are split on polar vortex activity, making the next few weeks crucial for traders to watch potential price movement and storage dynamics.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.23 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 27.0 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.99
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.64
MA(20): $4.61
Current Price is 3.99, 9 day MA 4.64, 20 day MA 4.61
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0544
Signal: 0.1919
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 39.06
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 39.06 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,978
Avg (20d): 190,235
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 1.05
%D: 2.37
Stochastic %K: 1.05, %D: 2.37. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 34.53
+DI: 22.99
-DI: 28.85
ADX: 34.53 (+DI: 22.99, -DI: 28.85). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -98.95
Williams %R: -98.95 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.26
Middle: 4.61
Lower: 3.97
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.26, Middle: 4.61, Lower: 3.97
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.8 | 108.5 | 103.8 | 103.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 5.77 |
| Total Supply | 115.3 | 115.5 | 110.5 | 108.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 24.7 | 25.9 | 25.4 | 24.83 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.7 | 39.6 | 35.4 | 32.8 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.3 | 50.1 | 39.3 | 35.9 |
| LNG Exports | 18.5 | 18.7 | 14.2 | 13.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.17 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 142.3 | 149.53 | 128.6 | 120.73 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -27.0 | -34.03 | -18.1 | -11.87 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
202.0 HDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
180.0 HDD
-29.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 32.0 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/09 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/10 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/11 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/12 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/15 | 35.0 | 28.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/16 | 28.0 | 29.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/17 | 23.0 | 29.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/19 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/20 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/21 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.25
Daily:
-0.15 (-0.15%)
Weekly:
-0.97 (-0.97%)
US_10Y
4.18
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.29%)
Weekly:
-0.0 (-0.1%)
SP500
6816.51
Daily:
-10.9 (-0.16%)
Weekly:
-24.0 (-0.35%)
VIX
16.5
Daily:
1.65 (11.11%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-0.96%)
GOLD
4318.0
Daily:
17.9 (0.42%)
Weekly:
111.3 (2.65%)
COPPER
5.34
Daily:
0.06 (1.15%)
Weekly:
0.1 (1.98%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-25
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,493,602
Change: -13,093
Managed Money
-65,346
Change: -5,692
-4.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-21,477
Change: -1,235
-1.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
146,624
Change: +3,724
9.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-73,057
Change: +5,008
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-25
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,890,503
Change: +22,480
Managed Money
-37,010
Change: -24,339
-2.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
273,875
Change: -2,162
14.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-339,063
Change: +17,275
-17.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.468 EUR/MWh (+0.150). JKM prices decreased to 10.700 USD/MMBtu (-0.045). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.232 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.468
+0.150Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-15
JKM Prices
10.700
-0.045Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-15
JKM-TTF Spread
1.232
13.01%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-15
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.9
10.4
9.9
9.4
8.9
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.468 |
| FEB 26 | 9.481 |
| MAR 26 | 9.418 |
| APR 26 | 9.178 |
| MAY 26 | 9.074 |
| JUN 26 | 9.083 |
| JUL 26 | 9.110 |
| AUG 26 | 9.153 |
| SEP 26 | 9.249 |
| OCT 26 | 9.297 |
| NOV 26 | 9.475 |
| DEC 26 | 9.583 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.700 |
| FEB 26 | 9.840 |
| MAR 26 | 9.450 |
| APR 26 | 9.155 |
| MAY 26 | 9.105 |
| JUN 26 | 9.200 |
| JUL 26 | 9.370 |
| AUG 26 | 9.515 |
| SEP 26 | 9.490 |
| OCT 26 | 9.520 |
| NOV 26 | 9.535 |
| DEC 26 | 9.865 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.517
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
53
Last Updated:
2025-12-15 23:47:36
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.75
NATURAL_GAS
-0.8
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Sugar Prices Pressured as India Boosts Sugar Production and Crude Oil Declines Barchart
- Sugar Prices Decline on Higher Indian Production and Weakness in Crude Barchart
- Oil prices fall as supply outlook offsets disruptions in Venezuelan flows Reuters
- Supply Limits, Geopolitical Risk to Support Crude in 2026 — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Poised for Significant Weekly Loss on Oversupply Prospects — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Poised for Weekly Loss as Traders Focus on Ukraine, Bearish Supply Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Supply Limits, Geopolitical Risk to Support Crude in 2026 — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.99
Closest Support:
$3.81
4.51% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.13
3.51% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.41
0.382
$3.81
Support
0.5
$4.13
Resistance
0.618
$4.46
0.786
$4.91
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.24
1.618
$7.18
2.0
$8.22
2.618
$9.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.01
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-15 23:47:36
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | $4.02 | $3.68 | $4.35 |
| 2025-12-17 | $4.0 | $3.67 | $4.34 |
| 2025-12-18 | $4.02 | $3.69 | $4.36 |
| 2025-12-19 | $4.02 | $3.69 | $4.36 |
| 2025-12-20 | $4.03 | $3.7 | $4.37 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2025-12-16), reaching $4.02.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-16 and 2025-12-20.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.500 across various analyses. This suggests potential downward pressure on prices. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.81, while resistance is at 4.13. Traders should watch for volatility within the predicted range of 3.68 to 4.35, especially considering the fundamental balance of -27.00 BCFD, which indicates a tightening supply.
Given the high heating demand forecasted, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, there may be short-term opportunities for price spikes if demand exceeds expectations. However, a bearish sentiment regarding demand could offset this, requiring careful monitoring of market developments.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The bearish market sentiment, particularly with a score of -0.800 for natural gas, suggests caution in production planning. Producers should consider adjusting output levels in light of the fundamental balance, which has worsened by +7.03. This indicates a tightening supply situation that might not be sustainable if demand does not pick up.
Hedging strategies may need to be reevaluated given the current market sentiment and the potential for price fluctuations. The overall negative sentiment surrounding crude oil and natural gas demand, particularly from major markets like China, necessitates a close watch on geopolitical developments and infrastructure news that could influence supply chains.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
The outlook for heating demand is notably high due to the weather forecasts, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, where heating degree days (HDD) are significantly elevated. This could lead to increased costs for heating fuels in the short term. Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as demand surges.
Additionally, the bearish sentiment regarding supply may raise concerns about reliability. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for these fluctuations, as the market dynamics could shift quickly based on weather changes or supply disruptions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market presents a complex picture with both bearish sentiment and a tightening fundamental balance. The sentiment score of -0.500 indicates significant concerns regarding supply and demand dynamics, particularly in crude oil and natural gas markets. Analysts should focus on the underlying factors driving this sentiment, including geopolitical risks and infrastructure developments.
The high heating demand forecast combined with a bearish outlook suggests potential volatility ahead. Monitoring the weather outlook and its impact on energy consumption will be critical in assessing future price movements. The implications of ML price forecasts suggesting a slight upward trend (0.15%) should also be considered in this context.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations. Always consult with a financial advisor or conduct your own research before making investment decisions.