Nat Gas is caught between a rock and a hard place as over the last couple of months has gotten weaker on demand with weak fall demand. Last weeks storage draw of 177 was really a biggie but not unexpected. The next few weeks look tepid on demand which brings into question whether we are going to have a lot of polar vortex activity or very little - according to meteorologists, the chances are roughly equal. The 5 year average storage exit for this winter is 1.6 TCF and we are currently on path (assuming historicals line up) to exit around 1.7 (our models show 1.8 based on 3 year averages). After the colossal drop last week, we look ahead with a question - will we pierce $4 and drop to 3.965 which is the next technical benchmark or retrace a bit higher after that massive drop? If 3.965 drops we are headed to the mid $3s For right now, we are floundering around the 3.965 level but could be dropping soon.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-16 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently caught in a downward spiral, primarily due to warmer-than-average temperatures reducing demand during the fall season. Recent storage draws have been notable, but forecasts suggest a potential exit storage of 1.7 TCF this winter, slightly above the 5-year average. As prices hover around the critical $4 mark, a breach could send us to the mid-$3s. With weather patterns and demand uncertain, traders should keep a close eye on forecasts and storage levels—it's a game of "Will it or won't it?" in the gas market.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.23 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 27.0 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.97
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.53
MA(20): $4.59
Current Price is 3.97, 9 day MA 4.53, 20 day MA 4.59
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.0091
Signal: 0.1556
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 38.56
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 38.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 5,203
Avg (20d): 189,227
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 2.43
%D: 2.35
Stochastic %K: 2.43, %D: 2.35. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 32.99
+DI: 21.9
-DI: 28.87
ADX: 32.99 (+DI: 21.9, -DI: 28.87). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -97.57
Williams %R: -97.57 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.29
Middle: 4.59
Lower: 3.9
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.29, Middle: 4.59, Lower: 3.9
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.8 | 108.5 | 103.8 | 103.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 5.77 |
| Total Supply | 115.3 | 115.5 | 110.5 | 108.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 24.7 | 25.9 | 25.4 | 24.83 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.7 | 39.6 | 35.4 | 32.8 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.3 | 50.1 | 39.3 | 35.9 |
| LNG Exports | 18.5 | 18.7 | 14.2 | 13.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.17 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 142.3 | 149.53 | 128.6 | 120.73 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -27.0 | -34.03 | -18.1 | -11.87 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
210.0 HDD
+13.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
167.0 HDD
-45.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | 32.0 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/09 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/10 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/11 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/12 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/14 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/16 | 29.0 | 29.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 23.0 | 29.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/19 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/20 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/21 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
| 12/22 | 23.0 | 31.0 | -8.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.38
Daily:
0.23 (0.23%)
Weekly:
-0.41 (-0.42%)
US_10Y
4.15
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.79%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.36%)
SP500
6800.26
Daily:
-16.25 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
-86.42 (-1.25%)
VIX
16.48
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.12%)
Weekly:
-0.45 (-2.66%)
GOLD
4350.7
Daily:
44.0 (1.02%)
Weekly:
154.3 (3.68%)
COPPER
5.41
Daily:
0.07 (1.29%)
Weekly:
0.13 (2.5%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-25
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,493,602
Change: -13,093
Managed Money
-65,346
Change: -5,692
-4.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-21,477
Change: -1,235
-1.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
146,624
Change: +3,724
9.8% of OI
Other Reportables
-73,057
Change: +5,008
-4.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-11-25
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,890,503
Change: +22,480
Managed Money
-37,010
Change: -24,339
-2.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
273,875
Change: -2,162
14.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-339,063
Change: +17,275
-17.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 9.434 EUR/MWh (-0.034). JKM prices decreased to 10.662 USD/MMBtu (-0.038). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.228 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.434
-0.034Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-16
JKM Prices
10.662
-0.038Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-16
JKM-TTF Spread
1.228
13.02%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-16
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.8
10.3
9.8
9.3
8.8
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.434 |
| FEB 26 | 9.387 |
| MAR 26 | 9.324 |
| APR 26 | 9.097 |
| MAY 26 | 9.005 |
| JUN 26 | 9.017 |
| JUL 26 | 9.042 |
| AUG 26 | 9.077 |
| SEP 26 | 9.179 |
| OCT 26 | 9.232 |
| NOV 26 | 9.411 |
| DEC 26 | 9.511 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.662 |
| FEB 26 | 9.680 |
| MAR 26 | 9.390 |
| APR 26 | 9.080 |
| MAY 26 | 9.035 |
| JUN 26 | 9.145 |
| JUL 26 | 9.310 |
| AUG 26 | 9.445 |
| SEP 26 | 9.420 |
| OCT 26 | 9.465 |
| NOV 26 | 9.475 |
| DEC 26 | 9.800 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.5
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
59
Last Updated:
2025-12-16 23:47:37
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.8
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (9 articles)
- TotalEnergies Inks Deal To Supply Green Power To Google Data Centers In Malaysia dpa-AFX
- Oil settles near five-year low amid ample supply, Russia-Ukraine progress Reuters
- Oil Futures Fall Further on Oversupply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sugar Prices Pressured as India Boosts Sugar Production and Crude Oil Declines Barchart
- Oil Futures Extend Losses On Oversupply Worries — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sugar Prices Decline on Higher Indian Production and Weakness in Crude Barchart
- Oil Futures Focused on Russia-Ukraine, Oversupply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Inches Higher But Ukraine Talks, Oversupply Concerns Cap Gains — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices fall as supply outlook offsets disruptions in Venezuelan flows Reuters
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.97
Closest Support:
$3.81
4.03% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.13
4.03% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.41
0.382
$3.81
Support
0.5
$4.13
Resistance
0.618
$4.46
0.786
$4.91
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.24
1.618
$7.18
2.0
$8.22
2.618
$9.9
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.89
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-16 23:47:38
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.07%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 | $3.88 | $3.55 | $4.22 |
| 2025-12-18 | $3.89 | $3.56 | $4.23 |
| 2025-12-19 | $3.89 | $3.55 | $4.22 |
| 2025-12-20 | $3.89 | $3.56 | $4.23 |
| 2025-12-21 | $3.9 | $3.56 | $4.24 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2025-12-17), reaching $3.88.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-17 and 2025-12-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data suggests a neutral technical outlook with Fibonacci support at 3.81 and resistance at 4.13. The bearish overall market sentiment, with a score of -0.500, indicates potential downward pressure on prices. The ML price forecast predicts a slight decline of 0.07%, with a range between 3.55 and 4.22. Traders should be cautious of volatility and consider short-term opportunities aligned with the prevailing market sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -27.00 BCFD, which has increased by 7.03. This indicates tightening supply conditions, which may affect production planning. However, the bearish sentiment, particularly towards natural gas with a score of -0.800, suggests that producers should evaluate their hedging strategies carefully to mitigate potential losses from declining prices. The recent headlines indicate concerns about demand, especially from China, which could further impact market dynamics.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand anticipated due to the current weather outlook (HDD: 20.1), consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish sentiment in the market, particularly in natural gas, may provide short-term opportunities for purchasing at lower prices. However, the overall sentiment indicates risks associated with supply reliability as demand concerns grow. Consumers should consider their procurement strategies to secure favorable pricing amidst these conditions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently influenced by a combination of factors leading to a bearish outlook. The technical indicators are neutral, while the fundamental balance reflects tightening supply conditions. The weather outlook suggests high heating demand, predominantly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could impact short-term supply dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor the evolving sentiment scores, particularly the demand sentiment at -0.586, as it indicates potential shifts in consumer behavior and market reactions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.