Nat Gas is caught between a rock and a hard place as over the last couple of months has gotten weaker on demand with weak fall demand. Last weeks storage draw of 177 was really a biggie but not unexpected. The next few weeks look tepid on demand which brings into question whether we are going to have a lot of polar vortex activity or very little - according to meteorologists, the chances are roughly equal. The 5 year average storage exit for this winter is 1.6 TCF and we are currently on path (assuming historicals line up) to exit around 1.7 (our models show 1.8 based on 3 year averages). After the colossal drop down below $4, there has been a slight recovery to above $4 - the key support level to watch is 3.965 and the key resistance is 4.174.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-17 23:49
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas has been navigating a chilly market landscape, influenced by weak demand and fluctuating weather forecasts. Recent storage draws of 177 Bcf signal some tightening, but with current models predicting a winter exit around 1.7 TCF, supply remains plentiful. Prices recently recovered above $4 after dipping below, with key technical levels to watch at 3.965 support and 4.174 resistance. Meteorologist predictions of polar vortex activity are split, adding uncertainty to demand. Keep an eye on weather trends—Mother Nature loves to surprise!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.23 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 27.0 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.07
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.41
MA(20): $4.57
Current Price is 4.07, 9 day MA 4.41, 20 day MA 4.57
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.0242
Signal: 0.1186
Days since crossover: 7
MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.57
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.57 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,760
Avg (20d): 186,758
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 14.09
%D: 6.0
Stochastic %K: 14.09, %D: 6.0. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 31.74
+DI: 22.27
-DI: 28.2
ADX: 31.74 (+DI: 22.27, -DI: 28.2). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -85.91
Williams %R: -85.91 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.31
Middle: 4.57
Lower: 3.84
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.31, Middle: 4.57, Lower: 3.84
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.8 | 108.5 | 103.8 | 103.0 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 5.77 |
| Total Supply | 115.3 | 115.5 | 110.5 | 108.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 24.7 | 25.9 | 25.4 | 24.83 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.7 | 39.6 | 35.4 | 32.8 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.3 | 50.1 | 39.3 | 35.9 |
| LNG Exports | 18.5 | 18.7 | 14.2 | 13.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.17 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 142.3 | 149.53 | 128.6 | 120.73 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -27.0 | -34.03 | -18.1 | -11.87 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
214.0 HDD
+17.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
162.0 HDD
-52.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/10 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/11 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/12 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/14 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/15 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/17 | 23.0 | 29.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/19 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/20 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/21 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/22 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/23 | 22.0 | 31.0 | -9.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.42
Daily:
0.27 (0.27%)
Weekly:
0.07 (0.07%)
US_10Y
4.15
Daily:
0.0 (0.05%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.24%)
SP500
6721.43
Daily:
-78.83 (-1.16%)
Weekly:
-179.57 (-2.6%)
VIX
17.62
Daily:
1.14 (6.92%)
Weekly:
1.85 (11.73%)
GOLD
4359.4
Daily:
54.9 (1.28%)
Weekly:
73.9 (1.72%)
COPPER
5.39
Daily:
0.11 (2.01%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.62%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,524,306
Change: +30,704
Managed Money
-39,973
Change: +25,373
-2.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-34,953
Change: -13,476
-2.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
148,038
Change: +1,414
9.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-86,506
Change: -13,449
-5.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,914,667
Change: +24,164
Managed Money
-34,768
Change: +2,242
-1.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
273,252
Change: -623
14.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-334,512
Change: +4,551
-17.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 9.338 EUR/MWh (-0.096). JKM prices remained stable to 10.662 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.324 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.338
-0.096Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-17
JKM Prices
10.662
+0.000Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-17
JKM-TTF Spread
1.324
14.18%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-17
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.8
10.3
9.7
9.2
8.6
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.338 |
| FEB 26 | 9.171 |
| MAR 26 | 9.102 |
| APR 26 | 8.879 |
| MAY 26 | 8.785 |
| JUN 26 | 8.792 |
| JUL 26 | 8.811 |
| AUG 26 | 8.858 |
| SEP 26 | 8.961 |
| OCT 26 | 9.013 |
| NOV 26 | 9.190 |
| DEC 26 | 9.294 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.662 |
| FEB 26 | 9.455 |
| MAR 26 | 9.210 |
| APR 26 | 8.860 |
| MAY 26 | 8.840 |
| JUN 26 | 8.930 |
| JUL 26 | 9.100 |
| AUG 26 | 9.250 |
| SEP 26 | 9.225 |
| OCT 26 | 9.245 |
| NOV 26 | 9.280 |
| DEC 26 | 9.635 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
84
Last Updated:
2025-12-17 23:47:42
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (9 articles)
- TotalEnergies Inks Deal To Supply Green Power To Google Data Centers In Malaysia dpa-AFX
- Oil settles near five-year low amid ample supply, Russia-Ukraine progress Reuters
- Oil Futures Fall Further on Oversupply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sugar Prices Pressured as India Boosts Sugar Production and Crude Oil Declines Barchart
- Oil Futures Extend Losses On Oversupply Worries — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sugar Prices Decline on Higher Indian Production and Weakness in Crude Barchart
- Oil Futures Focused on Russia-Ukraine, Oversupply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Inches Higher But Ukraine Talks, Oversupply Concerns Cap Gains — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices fall as supply outlook offsets disruptions in Venezuelan flows Reuters
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.07
Closest Support:
$3.82
6.14% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
1.72% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.79
0.236
$3.43
0.382
$3.82
Support
0.5
$4.14
Resistance
0.618
$4.46
0.786
$4.92
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.23
1.618
$7.17
2.0
$8.2
2.618
$9.88
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.02
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-17 23:47:43
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.08%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | $4.02 | $3.68 | $4.36 |
| 2025-12-19 | $4.02 | $3.69 | $4.36 |
| 2025-12-20 | $4.04 | $3.7 | $4.37 |
| 2025-12-21 | $4.04 | $3.71 | $4.38 |
| 2025-12-22 | $4.04 | $3.7 | $4.37 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-12-18), reaching $4.02.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-18 and 2025-12-22.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data indicates a neutral technical outlook with a Fibonacci support level at 3.82 and resistance at 4.14. The fundamental balance is currently at -27.00 BCFD, showing a change of +7.03, which suggests a slight increase in supply. The heating demand is expected to remain high, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions, while cooling demand is low, indicating potential price stability. However, the bearish sentiment in news articles, especially concerning natural gas and crude oil, alongside a predicted price drop of 0.08%, suggests caution for short-term trading strategies.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current bearish sentiment in the market, particularly with a sentiment score of -0.333, indicates challenges for production planning. Given that the fundamental balance is at -27.00 BCFD, producers may need to consider adjusting output levels to avoid excess inventory. Additionally, the high heating demand could present an opportunity for natural gas producers to optimize their supply strategies. Producers should also evaluate hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines, especially in light of the price forecast indicating a downward trend.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the market facing a bearish sentiment and a fundamental balance of -27.00 BCFD, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The forecasted high heating demand suggests that prices may remain elevated during the winter months, particularly in regions with significant heating needs. As such, consumers might consider proactive procurement strategies or hedging to manage costs effectively amidst the anticipated market volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by concerns over demand, particularly for crude oil, indicated by a sentiment score of -0.586. The fundamental balance reflects a slight improvement, but overall supply outweighs demand. The high heating demand forecast presents a unique situation where natural gas prices may stabilize despite bearish trends in crude oil. Analysts should focus on these diverging factors as they assess the potential for shifts in market dynamics, particularly as winter progresses.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.