Nat Gas is caught between a rock and a hard place as over the last couple of months has gotten weaker on demand with weak fall demand. Last weeks storage draw of 177 was really a biggie but not unexpected. The next few weeks look tepid on demand which brings into question whether we are going to have a lot of polar vortex activity or very little - according to meteorologists, the chances are roughly equal. The 5 year average storage exit for this winter is 1.6 TCF and we are currently on path (assuming historicals line up) to exit around 1.7 (our models show 1.8 based on 3 year averages). After the colossal drop down below $4, there has been a slight recovery to above $4 - the key support level to watch is 3.965 and the key resistance is 4.174. 3.965 dropped so we could be looking at a drop to 3.445. Watching 3.965 as the key bull/bear line and we are currently below it.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-18 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a challenging landscape, with recent weak fall demand contributing to price pressure. Notably, a smaller-than-expected storage draw of 177 Bcf has heightened concerns, as we prepare for a potential exit from winter around 1.7 TCF, slightly above the five-year average of 1.6 TCF. Prices recently dipped below $4 but managed a slight recovery, with critical support at 3.965 and resistance at 4.174. Watch for weather patterns and storage updates, as they could swing market sentiment dramatically!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 19.58 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 7.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.84
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $4.24
MA(20): $4.54
Current Price is 3.84, 9 day MA 4.24, 20 day MA 4.54
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.0665
Signal: 0.0809
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 37.72
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 37.72 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 5,090
Avg (20d): 186,838
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 0.18
%D: 4.62
Stochastic %K: 0.18, %D: 4.62. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 30.8
+DI: 20.6
-DI: 29.18
ADX: 30.8 (+DI: 20.6, -DI: 29.18). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -99.82
Williams %R: -99.82 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.35
Middle: 4.54
Lower: 3.73
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.35, Middle: 4.54, Lower: 3.73
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.7 | 108.8 | 104.0 | 103.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.53 |
| Total Supply | 115.2 | 115.3 | 110.2 | 108.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.3 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 24.93 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.9 | 41.7 | 34.1 | 32.83 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.3 | 39.4 | 37.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.3 | 18.5 | 14.3 | 13.77 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.67 |
| Total Demand | 122.72 | 142.3 | 127.0 | 122.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -7.52 | -27.0 | -16.8 | -13.83 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
214.0 HDD
+16.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
163.0 HDD
-53.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/11 | 27.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| 12/12 | 28.0 | 28.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/14 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/15 | 36.0 | 28.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/16 | 30.0 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/18 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 |
| 12/19 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/20 | 24.0 | 31.0 | -7.0 |
| 12/21 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 |
| 12/22 | 26.0 | 31.0 | -5.0 |
| 12/23 | 22.0 | 31.0 | -9.0 |
| 12/24 | 22.0 | 31.0 | -9.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/19 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/21 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.53
Daily:
0.16 (0.16%)
Weekly:
0.13 (0.13%)
US_10Y
4.12
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.84%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.86%)
SP500
6774.76
Daily:
53.33 (0.79%)
Weekly:
-52.65 (-0.77%)
VIX
16.87
Daily:
-0.75 (-4.26%)
Weekly:
2.02 (13.6%)
GOLD
4345.6
Daily:
-1.9 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
45.5 (1.06%)
COPPER
5.46
Daily:
0.1 (1.8%)
Weekly:
0.18 (3.34%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,524,306
Change: +30,704
Managed Money
-39,973
Change: +25,373
-2.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-34,953
Change: -13,476
-2.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
148,038
Change: +1,414
9.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-86,506
Change: -13,449
-5.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-12-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,914,667
Change: +24,164
Managed Money
-34,768
Change: +2,242
-1.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
273,252
Change: -623
14.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-334,512
Change: +4,551
-17.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.411 EUR/MWh (+0.073). JKM prices remained stable to 10.662 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.251 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.411
+0.073Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-18
JKM Prices
10.662
+0.000Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-18
JKM-TTF Spread
1.251
13.29%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-18
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
10.8
10.3
9.8
9.3
8.7
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.411 |
| FEB 26 | 9.337 |
| MAR 26 | 9.260 |
| APR 26 | 9.015 |
| MAY 26 | 8.918 |
| JUN 26 | 8.922 |
| JUL 26 | 8.948 |
| AUG 26 | 8.994 |
| SEP 26 | 9.097 |
| OCT 26 | 9.143 |
| NOV 26 | 9.317 |
| DEC 26 | 9.421 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.662 |
| FEB 26 | 9.535 |
| MAR 26 | 9.335 |
| APR 26 | 8.970 |
| MAY 26 | 8.950 |
| JUN 26 | 9.050 |
| JUL 26 | 9.220 |
| AUG 26 | 9.355 |
| SEP 26 | 9.325 |
| OCT 26 | 9.360 |
| NOV 26 | 9.375 |
| DEC 26 | 9.730 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
103
Last Updated:
2025-12-18 23:47:36
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (9 articles)
- TotalEnergies Inks Deal To Supply Green Power To Google Data Centers In Malaysia dpa-AFX
- Oil settles near five-year low amid ample supply, Russia-Ukraine progress Reuters
- Oil Futures Fall Further on Oversupply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sugar Prices Pressured as India Boosts Sugar Production and Crude Oil Declines Barchart
- Oil Futures Extend Losses On Oversupply Worries — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sugar Prices Decline on Higher Indian Production and Weakness in Crude Barchart
- Oil Futures Focused on Russia-Ukraine, Oversupply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Inches Higher But Ukraine Talks, Oversupply Concerns Cap Gains — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices fall as supply outlook offsets disruptions in Venezuelan flows Reuters
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Support Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Oil Extends Gains as Geopolitical Risks Mount Trading Economics
- Crude Prices Rise as Global Geopolitical Risks Escalate Barchart
- Rising Global Geopolitical Tensions Lift Crude Prices Barchart
- Oil Gains as Trump's Venezuela Blockade Raises Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.84
Closest Support:
$3.82
0.52% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.14
7.81% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.79
0.236
$3.43
0.382
$3.82
Support
0.5
$4.14
Resistance
0.618
$4.46
0.786
$4.92
1.0
$5.5
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$6.23
1.618
$7.17
2.0
$8.2
2.618
$9.88
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.91
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-18 23:47:36
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.35%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | $3.92 | $3.58 | $4.26 |
| 2025-12-20 | $3.93 | $3.59 | $4.27 |
| 2025-12-21 | $3.93 | $3.59 | $4.27 |
| 2025-12-22 | $3.92 | $3.58 | $4.26 |
| 2025-12-23 | $3.93 | $3.59 | $4.27 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.35% for the next trading day (2025-12-19), reaching $3.92.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-19 and 2025-12-23.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a technical score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.82 and resistance at 4.14. Traders should be cautious as the overall market sentiment is -0.400, indicating potential downward pressure.
Despite a predicted 0.35% increase in prices, the volatility may arise from the bearish news sentiment surrounding crude oil and natural gas, particularly regarding supply concerns. Monitor regional heating demand as moderate heating demand is expected, which could influence short-term price movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -7.52 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply scenario, which may warrant adjustments in production planning. However, the bearish sentiment of -0.600 for natural gas and crude oil suggests caution in the current market environment.
Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks from fluctuating prices, especially with the prevailing sentiment indicating potential demand concerns. The recent headlines regarding geopolitical tensions and oversupply could further complicate market dynamics.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With moderate heating demand expected, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The current bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil and natural gas could lead to lower prices in the short term, but the overall market uncertainty suggests a need for vigilance.
Additionally, the weather outlook indicates a dominant heating requirement, which may affect supply reliability. Consumers should assess their procurement strategies accordingly, considering potential hedging options to manage costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently shaped by a mix of bearish sentiments and fundamental imbalances. The overall sentiment score of -0.400 reflects concerns over demand, particularly in crude oil, which could impact market forecasts significantly.
Key driving factors include supply issues highlighted by recent headlines and a weather outlook favoring heating demand. Analysts should monitor these elements closely, as they may signal potential shifts in market dynamics, affecting future price trajectories and overall market stability.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.